LAS VEGAS — It all comes down to this: America’s biggest annual sporting event that is bound to change lives and legacies forever.
The 49ers earned a trip to Super Bowl LVIII by cruising through the regular season and completing stunning comebacks against the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions. Kansas City, meanwhile, is on the verge of becoming the first team since the New England Patriots 20 years ago to win back-to-back Super Bowls.
After the Super Bowl, the only numbers that will truly matter will be the score.
But here are nine statistics, trends, and data points that could tell the story of Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Chiefs.
19.9
The 49ers use the tight formation more than anyone since at least 2017, since Next Gen Stats started tracking. Their offense lines up 19.9 yards wide, on average.
By aligning their receivers on the numbers instead of outside toward the sideline, they open up passing lanes over the middle and force defenses to respect both the pass and run. At this point, condensed formations could be the most defining trait of Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
31st
In the regular season, Kansas City ranked 31st of 32 teams in yards per carry allowed on zone runs. San Francisco was the best zone running offense in the league. Something’s got to give.
7.3%
The game could come down to whether or not the Chiefs’ receivers can actually catch the ball. Patrick Mahomes is transcendent, but playing quarterback requires teammates who make plays. Kansas City’s 7.3% drop rate ranked 31st in the NFL and their receiving corps had a league-worst 28 catch score grade, per ESPN.
21
Christian McCaffrey’s 21 total touchdowns led the league and helped him earn the AP Offensive Player of the Year Award. Then he found the end zone twice in each of San Francisco’s first two playoff games. To beat the Chiefs, the 49ers might need McCaffrey to be the most explosive offensive player on the field.
87.3
Travis Kelce averaged 65.6 receiving yards per game in the regular season, his worst mark since 2015. The nine-time Pro Bowler is in a different stage of his career than when he was running over safeties, but he turned up the past three weeks with Kansas City’s season on the line. In these playoffs, the legendary tight end moved into first-place all-time in playoff touchdowns and is averaging 87.3 yards per game. The 49ers have the most feared linebacker duo out there, but can their shaky secondary contain Kelce?
113
Brock Purdy led the NFL with a 113 passer rating, steering Kyle Shanahan’s offense as well as anyone could have hoped. He takes risks when necessary, extends plays with his legs, excels in the middle of the field and processes quickly. Skeptics remain, but a Super Bowl ring would be the ultimate trump card for the second-year quarterback.
8.9
Deebo Samuel’s 8.9 yards after catch per reception is the highest average in the NFL. Nobody’s better with the ball in his hands than the versatile weapon.
The Super Bowl actually features the top three YAC/reception players in the league: Samuel, Chiefs rookie Rashee Rice (8.4) and Niners tight end George Kittle (7.7).
48.79%
Super Bowls are often won on third down, and San Francisco ranked third in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 48.79%. With Shanahan dialing up the right play calls at the right times, the 49ers should be in good hands in the biggest moments.
Kansas City, meanwhile, ranked sixth with a 43.02% conversion rate. No defense wants to face Mahomes with a chance to get off the field.
7-0
In the past 30 years, there have been seven Super Bowls in which one team travels to the location from the west, and the other from the east. In those games, according to researcher Jay Cuda, the team traveling east to west is a perfect 7-0. That doesn’t bode well for the 49ers.
Source: www.mercurynews.com