After a regular season in which underdogs had their fifth straight profitable year, Super Wild Card Weekend is upon us. Since 2017, underdogs are 16-8 ATS in wild-card weekend despite going 1-5 ATS then last season. Overall, underdogs have covered in 61% of all playoff games since 2017, while unders have hit 67% of the time in that span.
All six playoff games are rematches from the regular season. In the past 20 seasons when teams have playoff rematches, teams to win and cover every regular-season meeting are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches. Three of those meetings are divisional rematches. The San Francisco 49ers won and covered both meetings against the Seattle Seahawks. The Miami Dolphins covered both meetings against the Buffalo Bills, going 1-1 outright. The road underdog lost but covered both meetings between the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals.
The New York Giants were the best team in the NFL against the spread this season at 13-4. The Giants visit the Minnesota Vikings, who have seen 11 games go over the total this season, the highest mark in the NFL. Minnesota was a 4.5-point favorite when they met in Week 16, but that spread is now down to 3.
Cincinnati had the second-best ATS mark at 12-4. Last season, Cincinnati went 4-0 ATS in the postseason, and it has covered five straight playoff games overall. However, Baltimore is 17-4-1 ATS as an underdog over the past five seasons, including covering an 11.5-point spread closing line against Cincinnati last week.
The worst ATS record belonged to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 4-12-1 ATS. It is the worst cover percentage by any team to make the playoffs since the 1974 Miami Dolphins. Tom Brady is a home underdog for the first time in his playoff career.
The two biggest lines are in favor of San Francisco and Buffalo. In the past 30 seasons, home favorites of at least nine points are 11-0 ATS in wild-card weekend.
Season notes
The Bills entered the season as 6-1 favorites to win the title. However, they enter the playoffs as the second favorite behind the Chiefs.
The Giants had the best ATS record this season at 13-4, while the Buccaneers had the worst ATS record this season at 4-12-1.
Season stats
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Underdogs: 141-118-7 ATS this season (.544), the fifth straight season underdogs are profitable
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Road teams: 133-131-7 ATS this season (.504)
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Unders: 149-119-3 this season (.556), the highest under percentage since 1986
General playoff trends
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Since 2013, unders are 51-42-1 in playoff games (.548).
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Since 2017, underdogs are 36-23 ATS in playoff games (.610).
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Since 2013, underdogs are 23-15-2 ATS in wild-card games (.605), including 16-8 ATS since 2017 (.667).
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However, favorites were 5-1 ATS last season in wild-card games.
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Since 2012, unders are 30-14 in wild-card games (.682) including 16-8 since 2017 (.667).
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5), Saturday at 4:30 ET
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San Francisco was an 8.5-point home favorite in the teams’ Week 2 meeting (O/U 39.5) and a 3-point road favorite in Week 15 (O/U 42.5). San Francisco covered both meetings, with both going under the total. When teams have playoff rematches, teams to win and cover every regular-season meeting are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches in the past 20 seasons.
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In the past 30 seasons, wild-card home favorites of at least 9 points are 11-0 ATS.
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San Francisco was 7-1 ATS as a home favorite this season with five straight covers.
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Kyle Shanahan is 5-1 ATS in playoff games. Last season, San Francisco was 3-0 ATS in the playoffs, with all three games going under the total.
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San Francisco is 4-1 ATS with Brock Purdy under center (overs: 4-1).
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San Francisco is 7-1 ATS in its past eight games. Seattle is 1-7 ATS in its past eight games.
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Overs are 12-5-1 in Pete Carroll playoff games (9-8-1 ATS).
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The only rookie quarterback to be at least a 7-point favorite in the playoffs since 2000 is Ben Roethlisberger in 2004 (-9 vs New York Jets; won by three).
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San Francisco has covered eight straight games against NFC West opponents including playoffs (6-0 ATS this season).
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San Francisco has not been at least a 9-point favorite in a playoff game since the 1997 divisional round (-14 vs Minnesota).
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Seattle has not been at least a 3-point underdog in the wild-card round since 2010, when it upset New Orleans as a 10-point home underdog.
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Since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 ATS when division opponents meet in the playoffs.
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Los Angeles was a 6.5-point home favorite in the teams’ Week 3 meeting (O/U 46), but Jacksonville won the game 38-10. Before that game, Los Angeles had covered the previous nine meetings. When teams have playoff rematches, teams to win and cover every regular-season meeting are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches in the past 20 seasons.
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Los Angeles is 4-0-1 ATS in its past five games with three straight covers.
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Los Angeles has been an underdog in 12 of its previous 13 road playoff games, with the only exception coming in the 1982 divisional playoffs (-2 at Miami; lost 34-13).
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Jacksonville has never closed a game at pick ’em. It is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 games as a favorite (4-12 SU with two straight outright wins). It is 5-2 outright and ATS in its past seven games as an underdog (three straight outright wins).
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Doug Pederson is 5-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 5-0 ATS and 4-1 SU as an underdog (0-1 outright as a favorite).
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Jacksonville is 7-5 outright as an underdog this season. One more win would match the most underdog wins in a season (regular season and postseason) in the Super Bowl era (2015 Washington, 2001 New England, 1981 San Francisco, 1981 New York Giants).
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In the past five seasons (since 2018), there have only been two home underdogs in playoff games, and both came in the 2020 pandemic year. Since 2015, home underdogs are 6-2 ATS in playoff games.
Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-12.5), Sunday at 1 ET
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Buffalo was a 4-point road favorite in the teams’ Week 3 meeting (O/U 54.5) and a 7.5-point home favorite in Week 15 (O/U 45). Miami covered both meetings (won outright in Week 3). The first meeting went under, and the second meeting went over.
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Miami is 0-4 ATS in its past four playoff games, with all four games going under the total. Unders are 9-1 in Miami’s past 10 playoff games.
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Miami was 5-1 ATS against divisional opponents this season (2-0 ATS vs Buffalo).
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Teddy Bridgewater is 20-4 ATS in his career as a road underdog.
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Since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 ATS when division opponents meet in the playoffs.
New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings (-3), Sunday at 4:30 ET
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Minnesota was a 4.5-point home favorite in the teams’ Week 16 meeting with a total of 48. Minnesota won 27-24.
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New York was a league-best 13-4 ATS this season, including 7-1 ATS on the road. New York has covered four straight games and four straight road games.
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New York is 9-2 ATS in the playoffs since 2006, including 8-1 ATS as an underdog. New York is 16-5 ATS and 13-8 outright as a playoff underdog in the Super Bowl era. No team has more underdog wins or a better underdog winning percentage as a playoff underdog in that span.
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Minnesota games are 11-6 to the over this season, the highest over percentage in the league. Overs are 6-1 in Minnesota’s past seven games. Four straight Minnesota road games have gone over the total.
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Teams to cover at least 12 games during the regular season are 31-22-1 ATS in playoff games since the 1970 merger. The most recent three instances did not cover, though.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-7), Sunday at 8:15 ET
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Baltimore won the teams’ Week 5 meeting 19-17 as a 3-point home favorite (under 47.5), while Cincinnati won their meeting last week 27-16 as an 11.5-point home favorite (over 39). Both times, the road underdog covered despite losing outright.
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Cincinnati was 12-4 ATS, the second-best mark in the league. It is 20-5 ATS in its past 25 games including playoffs, including 12-2 ATS in its past 14 games and 7-1 ATS in its past eight games. Teams to cover at least 12 games during the regular season are 31-22-1 ATS in playoff games since the 1970 merger. The most recent three instances did not cover, though.
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Over the past five seasons, Baltimore is 17-4-1 ATS as an underdog including playoffs. Lamar Jackson is 10-2-1 ATS as an underdog; Tyler Huntley is 3-1 ATS; and Anthony Brown is 1-0 ATS.
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Cincinnati has covered five straight playoff games, including going 4-0 ATS last season. Eight straight Cincinnati playoff games have gone under the total.
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Baltimore is 9-8 outright as a playoff underdog, one of two teams with a record over .500 as a playoff underdog in the Super Bowl era (the Giants are the other).
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Since 2014, underdogs are 8-2 ATS when division opponents meet in the playoffs.
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Since 1992, when teams meet in the final week of the season and meet again the next week in the playoffs, overs are 11-2.
Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Monday at 8:15 ET (ABC/ESPN)
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Tampa Bay won the teams’ Week 1 meeting 19-3 as a 2.5-point home favorite (under 52.5). When teams have playoff rematches, teams to win and cover every regular-season meeting are 40-54-3 ATS in playoff rematches in the past 20 seasons.
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Tampa Bay was a league-worst 4-12-1 ATS this season. It is the second-worst regular-season ATS mark of any playoff team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), behind only 1974 Miami (3-10-1 ATS). Tampa Bay is 2-12-1 ATS in its past 15 games and 1-6 ATS in its past seven games.
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Tom Brady is 7-3 ATS in his career as a postseason underdog, with four straight outright wins. Brady has never been a home underdog in a playoff game. He is 11-2 ATS and 9-4 outright as a home underdog in the regular season.
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In the past five seasons (since 2018), there have only been two home underdogs in playoff games, and both came in the 2020 pandemic year. Since 2015, home underdogs are 6-2 ATS in playoff games.
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Dallas is 3-10 ATS in the playoffs since 1998, including 0-4 ATS since 2016.
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Dallas has not been a road favorite in the playoffs since 1996 at Carolina (-3; lost by nine). Dallas is 1-5 outright and ATS as a road favorite in the playoffs all time.
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Four of Tampa Bay’s past five games have gone over the total after 10 of its first 12 games went under.
Source: www.espn.com