The most substantial storm in weeks is set to hit the Bay Area Thursday morning into the rest of the week, bringing a momentary reprieve to a bone dry start of the year.
The tail end of an atmospheric river storm from the Pacific Northwest is expected to move into the North Bay as early as Thursday morning from the Gulf of Alaska, bringing widespread rain to the rest of the region by Thursday afternoon into evening, according to the National Weather Service.
After the first storm exits, another weather system is set to arrive late Friday into Saturday and continue into the weekend. Urban areas could get up to 0.35 of an inch of rain while higher elevations are looking at amounts up to an inch.
“We get these lingering showers hanging around for a couple days behind this front,” said forecaster Brian Garcia. “It’s gonna be hit-or-miss. One block might get some decent rainfall and the next block over might not get anything.”
Temperatures are expected to cool down after the system moves through, with overnight lows getting into the low 40s. On Saturday and Sunday morning, temperatures are expected to be in the 30s in the East Bay valleys and the areas near Santa Rosa, Gilroy and Hollister. Right along the Bay Area, temperatures could be in the mid-to-low 40s.
There’s some potential for hail on the backside of the storm. Friday into Saturday, snow levels are expected to drop to 2,500 feet. Friday could also see some gusty conditions across the Bay Area, with gusts into the 40 miles per hour range.
“If the showers go over the higher peaks, it could put some snow down, but it won’t be much in terms of accumulation,” Garcia said.
The Sierra Nevada could also get several inches of snow in the upcoming storm. Lassen Park is expected to receive 12 to 18 inches while Donner Pass, Carson Pass, Ebbetts Pass and Sonora Pass could get six to eight inches of snow.
Rain and snow continue to look on track for mid to late this week. With the initial onset of precipitation, snow levels will be near or above pass levels, falling overnight into Thursday. Always remember to check road info when traveling at: https://t.co/6jnhwJwcfC #CAwx pic.twitter.com/LVjJ1mAh0u
— NWS Sacramento (@NWSSacramento) February 28, 2022
Last week’s storm marked the first significant rain to drench the Bay Area since early January. Climate scientist Daniel Swain wrote on Twitter that January and February were the driest on record for “at least 127 years” across Northern and Central California.
Atmospheric river storms in October and December raised hopes that California’s ongoing drought could be retreating by filling the statewide Sierra Nevada snowpack to 168% of normal on New Year’s Day and marking the 21st wettest December on record for San Francisco. By Tuesday, the Sierra snowpack had dipped down to 63% of historical averages for that date, according to the California Department of Water Resources.
Over the past two months, San Francisco has gotten .65 of an inch of rain in what would usually be the wettest time period for the region. San Jose got .01 inches of rain in January and February.
“The rains that we had in October and December were the biggest benefit to combatting the drought but with so little rain, we’ve been sliding back towards drought, which isn’t a good thing,” Garcia said. “In terms of fire concerns, no rain means there’s no moisture going into the vegetation and with no influx of moisture, what moisture is there now will dry out sooner, especially if we get a warm or hot spring, which could lead to an earlier start to fire season.”
After this week’s system passes through, there doesn’t seem to be anything in the long-term forecast that could signal a big storm is on the way, dampening the chances of a “Miracle March.”
“It’ll be a pretty dry spring in general,” Garcia said. “We’ll get a few passing showers here or there but not anything significant.”
Source: www.mercurynews.com