NFC playoff picture: How the 49ers can clinch even with a loss to the Rams

UPDATE: This story was written before the Vikings lost to the Packers on Sunday night.

The 49ers can now only make the playoffs with a Week 18 win or tie vs. the Rams OR a loss or tie by the Saints against the Falcons.

If the 49ers beat the Rams in Los Angeles next week, they’ll make the playoffs. That much is clear after they beat the Texans 23-7 on Sunday afternoon.

But if they lose? Well, things get pretty complicated from there.

A win by the Saints over the Falcons would place them ahead of the 49ers in the playoff pecking order, but the Niners could still find their way into the tournament another way even in that scenario.

The trick for the 49ers is avoiding a three-way tie. If they finish tied with the Eagles or Vikings in a two-way tie, they will finish ahead by virtue of beating those teams in head-to-head games earlier this year.

The only three-way tie the 49ers can win is against the Eagles and Vikings, and the only way that can come about is if: 49ers lose to Rams, Vikings beat Packers (tonight) and Bears, and Eagles lose to Cowboys.

Such a scenario, paired with a Saints win, would make a four-way tie. New Orleans would be the No. 6 seed out of a four-way tie by conference record. Then, a second tiebreaking procedure would commence between the Vikings, Eagles and 49ers. Because the 49ers beat both of the other teams in the tiebreaker, they would take the final playoff spot.

If the 49ers and Saints both lose, the 49ers are assured a spot because the only teams that could tie them are Minnesota and Philadelphia — both teams they’ve beaten head-to-head.

So, to recap, the 49ers’ clinch scenarios are:

-Beat the Rams

-Lose to the Rams; Saints lose to the Falcons

-Lose to Rams; Eagles lose to Cowboys; Vikings win out vs. Packers and Bears; Saints beat Falcons

Anyone wishing to test out scenarios for themselves (or waste several hours) can head to ESPN’s Playoff Machine.

Here is the current NFC playoff picture while the Vikings play the Packers: