The Oscars are in trouble.
Viewership continues to slide. Decisions to trim its “epic” (read long and boring) telecast were greeted with outrage. And per the norm even the nominees sent everyone into a tizzy.
The good news is that this won’t be another stilted faux Zoom affair, thank goodness, but an actual live event with not one but three hosts — Regina Hall, Amy Schumer, Wanda Sykes.
So far so good, even though we do wish categories that will now be taped before the telecast and then sprinkled in — documentary short, film editing, makeup and hairstyling, original score, production design, animated short, live-action short, and sound — would remain live. The Bay Area has a vested interest in seeing that happen since two of the documentary shorts — “Lead Me Home” (co-directed by the Bay Area’s Jon Shenk) and “When We Were Bullies” (directed by the Bay Area’s Jay Rosenblatt) – are in the running.
Enough about that. Let’s look at the nominations.
Here are our annual selections for who/what will win — and who should win — in the six major categories.
Best picture
The nominees: “Belfast,” “CODA,” “Don’t Look Up,” “Drive My Car,” “Dune,” “King Richard,” “Licorice Pizza,” “Nightmare Alley,” “The Power of the Dog,” “West Side Story”
What will win: Say what you will about the Academy being out of touch with popular opinion, but this year’s list respects every genre: family drama, musical, satire, sci-fi epic, sports movie, film noir and so on. Not bad, Oscar. You’re still relevant. But let’s not get all huggy-huggy about this, and cut the ones that don’t have a chance in hell of winning the top prize of the night.
“Don’t Look Up” preached ever so loudly to its liberal choir and was sloppy and ham-fisted. Didn’t deserve to be on this list. Denis Villeneuve’s adaptation of Frank Herbert’s “Dune” was a technical marvel, but face it, it had no ending. “King Richard” was solid and enjoyable but nothing more than that. The coming-of-age dramedy “Licorice Pizza” comes with some baggage, and besides that hilarious Bradley Cooper bit it wasn’t as memorable as it should have been. “Nightmare Alley” was a surprise nominee and is much better than its reviews. But it’s a downer and that simply won’t fly a kite this year. “West Side Story” slapped a splashy new coat on a classic musical, but was hindered by some dubious choices.
So that leaves us with the powerful four: The cynical, but beautifully rendered “The Power of the Dog,” which should be considered the front-runner; the moving, highly literary “Drive My Car,” an innocent’s view of growing up during The Troubles in “Belfast,” and the life-affirming “CODA.”
What will win: By the narrowest of margins — go with “CODA.” It’s a four-hankie, stand-up-and-cheer crowd-pleaser that’s well-made and appeals to even the most callous voters. “Dog” is just too much of a bummer to win.
What should win: “Drive My Car,” Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s three-hour metaphysical epic on grieving, personal connections and the healing might of art is a masterpiece. It said something more clearly, powerfully and eloquently than any other film nominated.
Best director
The nominees: Kenneth Branagh, “Belfast”; Ryusuke Hamaguchi, “Drive My Car”; Paul Thomas Anderson, “Licorice Pizza”; Jane Campion, “The Power of the Dog”; Steven Spielberg, “West Side Story.”
Who will win: This one’s a shoe-in. Branagh waded too deep into nostalgia with “Belfast.” Hamaguchi tuned “Car” to perfection but that film’s victory will probably be limited to the international category. Anderson taps into a SoCal many Oscar voters know well, but what the heck was the point of that movie? Spielberg proved he was a master showman, but his “Story” lacked passion where it was needed the most – in his tragic lovers. So this will be Campion’s year. Love or hate “Dog,” and many despise it, Campion helmed a moody anti-Western that made audiences uncomfortable. And hey, pardner, that IS the whole point of it.
Who should win: Hamaguchi. Every scene of “Car” is exquisite and precise, yet the film feels real and relatable. That’s due to his decision to allow the characters, and thereby his actors, to breathe and grow in scenes that feel taken from life.
Best actor
The nominees: Javier Bardem, “Being the Ricardos”; Benedict Cumberbatch, “The Power of the Dog”; Andrew Garfield, “Tick, Tick … Boom!”; Will Smith, “King Richard”; Denzel Washington, “The Tragedy of Macbeth.”
Who will win: Oscar fawns over actors who play real-life characters. Exhibit A? This list. Bardem was passable as Ricky Ricardo, but he was more deserving for playing a sleazy and wily boss in Spain’s official Oscar entry “The Good Boss.” Garfield sang and acted his heart out and even made us cry as the late Jonathan Larson, creator of “Rent,” but there are only so many awards that can go for a musical performance, and someone on “West Side” will be dancing away with an acting trophy (more on that later). Cumberbatch seethed and roiled with inner- and outer-rage and ate up the screen in “Dog,” and is a strong contender. Washington can do almost anything and his interpretation of Macbeth ranks as one of the best we’ve seen on screen. But the “Tragedy” here is that it gained little awards traction. This will be Smith’s year. He’s been passed up so many times and his performance as the driven dad of tennis titans Serena and Venus Williams was one of physical perfection.
Who should win: Washington. To breathe new life into one of Shakespeare’s most memorable and most-performed tragic figures takes some special acting magic. Unlike some before him, Washington never overplays his blood-soaked hand; a feat unto itself in a performance unto itself.
Best actress
The nominees: Jessica Chastain, “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”; Olivia Colman, “The Lost Daughter”; Penelope Cruz, “Parallel Mothers”; Nicole Kidman, “Being the Ricardos”; Kirsten Stewart, “Spencer.”
Who will win: Like we said, Hollywood swoons over actors portraying real people. Chastain managed to make an awkward retelling of the Tammy Faye saga interesting, but the film and even her performance seemed to hit the same notes over and over. Colman’s turn as a vacationing professor who becomes distraught about her past maternal decisions was one of the most challenging performances of 2021. Cruz injected life and passion into “Parallel Mothers,” but doesn’t stand a chance. Kidman excelled when she re-created “I Love Lucy” scenes, but the performance suffered from Aaron Sorkin’s extra-chewy dialogue in other scenes. So while it might be an unpopular decision, I think the Academy is going to swing the way of Stewart who did something that others who have portrayed Diana failed to do — channeled the hellish torment the princess endured rather than mount a textbook impersonation.
Who should win: Colman. Yes, she wins pretty much anything and everything. But that’s because she can do almost anything. As the tightly wound Leda in “Lost Daughter,” she created one of last year’s most intriguing characters — in any film. Colman sinks into the folds of Leda’s prickly demeanor and never once lets her off the hook.
Best supporting actor
The nominees: Ciarán Hinds, “Belfast”; Troy Kotsur, “CODA”; Jesse Plemons, “The Power of the Dog”; J.K. Simmons, “Being the Ricardos”; Kodi Smit-McPhee, “The Power of the Dog.”
Who will win: Hinds was just fine in “Belfast.” Fine doesn’t win Oscars. Plemons is a wonderful actor, but he was the most underdeveloped and least interesting character in “Dog.” It was a weird nomination. Simons was the best thing about “Ricardos,” nailing his portrayal of the grumpy William Farley. Doesn’t stand a chance. Smit-McPhee gave a blood-chilling performance as a bullied son who plays a dangerous game. But the trophy will go to Kotsur who gave a sweet but never syrupy performance as a deaf dad proud of his singing daughter in “CODA.”
Who should win: Smit-McPhee. As the object/target for ridicule and lust, Smit-McPhee gave the most sinister performance in “Dog.” Both the role and the performance were far more powerful than anything else in this category.
Best supporting actress
The nominees: Jessie Buckley, “The Lost Daughter”; Ariana DeBose, “West Side Story”; Judi Dench, “Belfast”; Kirsten Dunst, “The Power of the Dog”; Aunjanue Ellis, “King Richard.”
Who will win: It seemed early on that Dunst, playing a boozin’ new bride stuck in a Gothic nightmare, was the one to beat. Not anymore. Dench was great per usual, but that part was hardly a stretch. Buckley’s performance as the younger self of Colman’s character was simply uncanny; a performance that becomes ever more impressive on the second and third viewing. She’s a longshot. Ellis showed us why Serena and Venus Williams’ mom deserves as much credit as their dad, but this terrific performance hasn’t been lighting up the awards season. This is year DeBose’s year. As Anita, she was the lightning in “West Side’s” bottle, upstaging the two lovebirds and making us care about her fate much more than any others. She’ll win.
Who should win: Buckley. She was so effective and affecting here, and had the most challenging role in “Lost Daughter,” playing a mom desperate to seek a new life. It’s a tough part handled with such refinement, understanding, and even compassion.
Contact Randy Myers at soitsrandy@gmail.com.
THE 94TH ACADEMY AWARDS
When: 5 p.m. March 27
Where: ABC
Source: www.mercurynews.com