In the regular season, underdogs (53%) and unders (52%) were both profitable. Recently in wild-card weekend, both have been successful. Underdogs are 15-3 ATS in wild-card games over the past four seasons, and since divisional realignment in 2002, unders have come through 60% of the time.
This weekend likely features the biggest underdog in the history of wild-card weekend with the Kansas City Chiefs favored over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has not been this big of an underdog since Super Bowl XXX in 1995. History is against the Steelers, as double-digit home favorites are 7-0 ATS in the wild-card round.
This week also features two divisional rematches as the New England Patriots visit the Buffalo Bills and the Arizona Cardinals face the Los Angeles Rams. Since 2014, underdogs are 7-0 ATS in divisional rematches in the postseason (5-2 outright). Arizona was 6-0 outright as an underdog in the regular season, the best mark in the Super Bowl era.
Regular-season stats
Favorites: 126-140-3 ATS (.474); 169-99-1 SU
Home teams: 129-140-3 ATS (.480); 140-131-1 SU
Unders: 144-125-3 (.535) this season
Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5), Saturday, 4:30 ET
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Las Vegas was 8-9 ATS this season (9-8 unders). Cincinnati was 10-7 ATS (8-8-1 over/unders).
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Derek Carr is 19-13 ATS as an underdog over the past three seasons.
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Las Vegas is 6-1 ATS and 5-2 outright in its past seven games as an underdog of at least five points (since Week 5 of last season).
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Cincinnati has covered five straight and 10 of its past 12 games against Las Vegas. When these two teams faced off in November, Cincinnati won and covered as two-point favorites, 32-13.
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Cincinnati has covered three straight games as an underdog (2-1 SU).
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Cincinnati has lost eight straight playoff games (1-7 ATS) with its last win coming back in 1990. Cincinnati scored 17 or fewer points in each game.
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Since 2017, teams favored by at least five points in the wild-card round are 1-10 ATS and 5-6 outright.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-4), Saturday, 8:15 ET
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Bill Belichick is 55-29-1 ATS as an underdog with the Patriots, including the playoffs. Belichick is also 5-2 ATS as an underdog against Buffalo.
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Bill Belichick is 32-18 ATS with less than six days to prepare as New England’s head coach including playoffs. He is 13-2 ATS in that spot since 2016, though he lost outright as a favorite in his last playoff game in that spot (2019 wild-card game vs. Tennessee).
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New England had a cover margin of +6.18 points per game this season, the best mark in the NFL this season.
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New England is 8-3 ATS in its past 11 games and 6-2 ATS in its past eight games as a favorite.
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Bill Belichick is 5-2 ATS with New England as an underdog against Buffalo.
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Buffalo is favored against New England for the fourth time in their past five meetings after being favored in just one game across their previous 33 meetings.
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Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS across its past four games.
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Rookie quarterbacks are 0-6 outright in the postseason since 2010 (2-4 ATS). The past three rookie quarterbacks to reach the postseason went 0-3 ATS and outright (since 2016).
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Since 2014, underdogs are 7-0 ATS in divisional rematches in the postseason (5-2 outright).
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9), Sunday, 1 ET
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Philadelphia was 8-8-1 ATS this season (10-7 overs). Tampa Bay was 9-8 ATS this season (9-8 overs).
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Philadelphia is 2-6 ATS against teams with winning records this season (1-7 outright).
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Since 2001, Philadelphia is 10-1 ATS as a postseason underdog (6-5 outright). Philadelphia has covered in five of its past six playoff games.
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Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its past seven home games.
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Tom Brady has covered three straight and six of his past nine playoff games.
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Tom Brady is 0-5 ATS (2-3 outright) against NFC East opponents in the playoffs.
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Tom Brady is 2-3 ATS in the wild-card round, including 0-3 ATS in his past three wild-card games (2009, 2019, 2020).
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Since 2017, teams favored by at least five points in the wild-card round are 1-10 ATS and 5-6 outright.
San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys (-3), Sunday, 4:30 ET
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Dallas is 10-3 ATS (10-3 SU) as a favorite this season, the best cover percentage in the NFL (min. 2 games as favorite).
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Jimmy Garoppolo is 13-4 ATS in his career as an underdog (12-5 outright) including playoffs.
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San Francisco is 2-1 outright and ATS as an underdog this season.
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San Francisco went 7-2 ATS from Week 10 on, tied for the best cover percentage in the NFL over that span.
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Over the past three seasons, San Francisco is 10-7 (fourth best in NFL) outright and 12-5 ATS (second best in NFL) as an underdog.
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Mike McCarthy is 11-6-1 ATS in his postseason career, all with Green Bay. He is 4-1-1 ATS in the wild-card round. However, he is 0-5 outright and 2-2-1 ATS against NFC West opponents.
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Dallas had a cover margin of +5.94 points per game this season, the second-best cover margin in the NFL this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), Sunday, 8:15 ET
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The largest spread ever in a wild-card game is 11.5 points. Double-digit favorites are 7-1 outright and ATS in the wild-card round, with double-digit home favorites going 7-0 outright and ATS.
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Ben Roethlisberger has never been an underdog of 11 or more points in his career. Roethlisberger has been a double-digit underdog just twice, going 0-2 ATS in those games. One of those instances came in Week 16 at home against Kansas City (+10, lost by 26).
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Pittsburgh has not been at least an 11-point underdog since Super Bowl XXX in the 1995 season against Dallas (+13.5, lost by 10). The next-longest span without being at least an 11-point underdog belongs to Baltimore (2007).
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There have been four 12-point upsets in the Super Bowl era. The last upset this large was in Super Bowl XLII in 2007 (New York Giants upset New England as 12.5-point underdogs).
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Ten of Kansas City’s 17 games this season have gone over the total, tied for the second-highest over percentage in the NFL this season.
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Kansas City went 5-1 outright and ATS against teams with winning records from Week 10 on, the best in the NFL among wild-card teams.
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This is the second time in Patrick Mahomes’ career that he has been a double-digit favorite in the playoffs (1-0 ATS). He is 6-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite in his career during the regular season.
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Ben Roethlisberger is 3-1-1 ATS as a road underdog in the playoffs.
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Since 2017, teams favored by at least five points in the wild-card round are 1-10 ATS and 5-6 outright.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-4), Monday, 8:15 ET on ESPN
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Arizona is 6-0 ATS and outright as an underdog this season. That is the most outright wins as an underdog in a single season without a loss in the Super Bowl era.
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Teams to go 2-0 ATS or better as underdogs during the regular season are 15-25-1 as underdogs in the postseason (Arizona: 6-0 ATS as underdog).
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Arizona was 8-1 outright and ATS on the road this season.
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Sean McVay is 9-1 ATS against Arizona and 5-1 ATS against Kliff Kingsbury. Los Angeles was favored in all but one of those games (underdogs in past meeting in Week 14).
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Sean McVay is 17-8-1 ATS with at least seven days between games. Kliff Kingsbury is 8-5 ATS with at least seven days between games (7-2 ATS as underdog).
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Four of the past five meetings between these two teams have gone over the total.
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Since 2014, underdogs are 7-0 ATS in divisional rematches in the postseason (5-2 outright).
Source: www.espn.com