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Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.com
What type of role do you want your fantasy player to have on their NHL team? The answer is, admittedly, a bit on the obvious side. You want first line and first power-play unit for as many of your fantasy team members as possible. But if we knew the value of each role weighed against the others, we could make more informed decisions about players that aren’t always top-line, top-unit.
What is the actual fantasy difference between a top-line forward that is on the second power-play unit and a second-line forward on the top PP unit? Is it better to have a second-pairing defense that gets no power-play time or a third-pairing defender that is a first-unit specialist on the power play? Let’s use fantasy stats to have a closer look.
In an attempt to answer these questions, let’s approach this from the perspective of each individual game and assign roles based on the ice time that players earn. We’ll treat each game as having the ability to dictate which player is assigned which role.
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For example, Erik Haula will appear as the third-line center for the New Jersey Devils on most traditional depth charts. But, if you rank his even-strength ice time in each individual game against his fellow teammates, he’s actually played games as every possible role from first line to fourth line this season. Against the Utah Hockey Club on Oct. 14, the Devils had so much power-play time that Haula was third on the team in even-strength ice time. No, that doesn’t traditionally make him a “first liner” in this context, but for the purposes of classification, we can treat him as such. Conversely, on Oct. 17 against the Ottawa Senators, Haula ranked 10th on the Devils in even-strength minutes, arguably making him a fourth-line player in the contest.
The point is, we aren’t going to be using names to identify the roles that players have in each game, but rather let the ice time dictate what role was played by each player.
Because of time spent each game on special teams can vary widely, this will not always yield results that will match your typical depth chart. As in, Auston Matthews won’t always appear as a “first line” player whenever the Leafs spend a lot of the game either on the power-play or penalty kill, as the measure for the line roles is at even strength. But the point is to identify which playing roles are the most valuable – and this starts to crystalize when we go down one more layer.
In addition to line assignment, we can individually rank players by their power-play time per game and label them as first unit, second unit or no unit. With both of these factors applied to each individual game log across the season, we can aggregate the results to see role trends.
Let’s run these calculations on all of the game logs from the 2023-24 season to see how the fantasy points per game (FPPG) apply to each role based on their line (or pairing) and the power-play unit they were attached to.
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Forward roles
As you can see, the answer to our question about “first line-second unit” versus “second line-first unit” is clear, you want the player with the top power-play time. First-line players without the role on the top power-play unit fell below the usual 1.7 FPPG threshold we apply for relevancy. Now remember, “First line-second unit” should actually be read as “players that are among the leaders in even-strength time and rank No. 6 through No. 10 in power-play time.” A lot of the time that will have equivalency to traditional depth charts, but in games with more special-teams ice time, these labels will start to skew.
The takeaway might be the adage we already know: the power play is king. Even third-liners with top unit access do better than first-liners without it.
And if you want to do the eyeball test on how these roles actually apply, consider the instance of a “third line-first unit” player. The leaders in games played with these two labels from last season are Sean Monahan, Jared McCann, Tyler Toffoli, Jamie Benn, and James van Riemsdyk, which is certainly a who’s who of the power-play specialist world among forwards last season.
Or how about the players labelled as “first line-second unit”: Alexis Lafreniere, Brandon Hagel, Mikael Backlund, Marco Rossi, Matt Duchene and Martin Necas. Feels about right for which players were being left out of the fun on the advantage last season.
Defense roles
It’s nice to see that a top-pairing defender doesn’t necessarily need top power-play time to justify their fantasy deployment. Their collective 1.75 FPPG is enough to pass muster for most fantasy teams. The list of games leaders from 2023-24 for the “first pairing-second unit” — Filip Hronek, Devon Toews, Kris Letang, Rasmus Sandin, Hampus Lindholm and Darnell Nurse — confirms they are players just on the edge of consistent fantasy value; the in-and-out-of-lineup fantasy types.
Even a quarterback specialist can approach fantasy justification from the third pairing. You get one guess as to who is the games leader for the label of “third pair-first unit” from last season.
That’s correct, the Ghost Bear leads the way: Shayne Gostisbehere, Calen Addison, Justin Schultz and Brent Burns.
We haven’t had enough game logs this season to really shake out some clear roles. That said, consider some possibly underappreciated players based on this label system that have been on the top line and top unit most of this season:
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Robert Thomas, C, St. Louis Blues: six out of six games as “first line-first unit”, available in 25.6% of leagues
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Nick Schmaltz, RW, Utah Hockey Club: five out of six games, 5.6%
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Ryan O’Reilly, C, Nashville Predators: five out of five games, 26.8%
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Brock Boeser, RW, Vancouver Canucks: four out of five games, 15.6%
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Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Chicago Blackhawks: four out of six games, 34.8%
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Morgan Frost, C, Philadelphia Flyers: four out of five games, 94.4%
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Mikael Granlund, LW, San Jose Sharks: four out of five games, 70.7%
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Gabriel Vilardi, C, Winnipeg Jets: four out of four games, 86.9%
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Chandler Stephenson, C, Seattle Kraken: three out of six games, 93.7%
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William Eklund, LW, San Jose Sharks: three out of four games, 38.2%
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Mathew Barzal, C, New York Islanders: three out of five games, 20.3%
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Bryan Rust, RW, Pittsburgh Penguins: three out of four games, 32.2%
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Mark Stone, RW, Vegas Golden Knights: three out of six games, 17.0%
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Mats Zuccarello, RW, Minnesota Wild: three out of five games, 18.5%
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Dylan Strome, C, Washington Capitals: three out of four games, 0.0%
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Pavel Zacha, C, Boston Bruins: three out of six games, 75.7%
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Pavel Buchnevich, RW, St. Louis Blues: three out of six games, 26.1%
Goalie notes
Anaheim Ducks in five games (three last week): Lukas Dostal (crease share season/week: 80.1%/100.0%, fantasy points season/week: 18.8/5.8, 71.5% available) and James Reimer (crease share season/week: 19.9%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -0.2/DNP, 98.8% available).
Just a note that John Gibson is expected to travel with the Ducks this week. Dostal is proving interesting for fantasy, as he hangs in as top-10 goalie so far. It’s doubtful the Ducks can keep giving him the necessary support for such a run, but it’s worth monitoring.
Carolina Hurricanes in four games (three last week): Pyotr Kochetkov (crease share season/week: 50.1%/66.5%, fantasy points season/week: -0.4/-0.4, 76.4% available) and Frederik Andersen (crease share season/week: 49.9%/33.5%, fantasy points season/week: 6.8/7.0, 12.7% available).
If negative points keep coming from Kochetkov, Andersen’s value will rise with a larger crease share.
Calgary Flames in five games (two last week): Dan Vladar (crease share season/week: 60.6%/50.5%, fantasy points season/week: 6.0/1.2, 96.2% available) and Dustin Wolf (crease share season/week: 39.4%/49.5%, fantasy points season/week: 13.6/8.2, 80.7% available).
Just a note to not get too excited about Wolf’s returns until he faces teams a little stronger than the Flyers and Blackhawks.
Colorado Avalanche in six games (four last week): Alexandar Georgiev (crease share season/week: 68.4%/74.9%, fantasy points season/week: -19.0/-6.4, 15.2% available) and Justus Annunen (crease share season/week: 31.6%/25.1%, fantasy points season/week: 1.6/7.0, 98.3% available).
This crease also looks more unstable at a glance than it actually is. Annunen’s points all came against the Sharks. As shaky as Georgiev has looked, his opponents have been tougher and he has a lot of runway before we’ll get into controversy mode.
Los Angeles Kings in six games (five last week): Darcy Kuemper (crease share season/week: 50.5%/25.3%, fantasy points season/week: 1.6/-8.4, 79.1% available), David Rittich (crease share season/week: 41.9%/63.3%, fantasy points season/week: 6.0/6.0, 94.3% available) and Pheonix Copley (crease share season/week: 7.6%/11.4%, fantasy points season/week: -2.0/-2.0, 99.9% available).
Kuemper was back at practice and, while he may not be back for Tuesday’s Frozen Frenzy, he could be back in action in time for the Kings home opener on Thursday against the Sharks.
Nashville Predators in five games (three last week): Juuse Saros (crease share season/week: 80.2%/100.0%, fantasy points season/week: -8.4/-8.2, 5.5% available) and Scott Wedgewood (crease share season/week: 19.8%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: -4.8/DNP, 99.6% available).
It might be time for Saros to ride the fantasy pine until he stops accruing negative value for your squad. Just don’t do anything rash as he started slow last season before building his winning record from December onward.
Pittsburgh Penguins in seven games (five last week): Joel Blomqvist (crease share season/week: 54.4%/45.4%, fantasy points season/week: 7.8/4.2, 95.1% available), Tristan Jarry (crease share season/week: 31.4%/29.8%, fantasy points season/week: -8.0/-2.8, 66.7% available) and Alex Nedeljkovic (crease share season/week: 14.2%/24.7%, fantasy points season/week: -3.8/-3.8, 97.9% available).
The most interesting crease at the moment belongs to the Pens. The well-paid, but struggling veteran, Tristan Jarry, was scratched in the last game. The journeyman looking for a bigger piece of the pie, Nedeljkovic, was fed pucks – and missed lots – in his season debut against the Jets. Meanwhile, the unexpected rookie, Blomqvist, just there as a stopgap, has been the most reliable of the three. If your crease is hurting, you need to act now while Blomqvist still has some availability. There is a good chance nothing much comes of it, but the Pens are still in win-now mode, so they can’t afford shaky tending for long.
Toronto Maple Leafs in five games (two last week): Anthony Stolarz (crease share season/week: 79.8%/100.0%, fantasy points season/week: 14.8/7.4, 54.0% available) and Dennis Hildeby (crease share season/week: 20.2%/DNP, fantasy points season/week: 4.2/DNP, 99.0% available).
Stolarz has been strong and has a solid head start when it comes to keeping a lion’s share of the crease to himself. Joseph Woll could make his debut on Tuesday, though, so this coming week will help establish what kind of a rotation we can expect in the short-term.
Vancouver Canucks in five games (three last week): Kevin Lankinen (crease share season/week: 60.9%/67.3%, fantasy points season/week: 20.2/17.4, 86.8% available) and Arturs Silovs (crease share season/week: 39.1%/32.7%, fantasy points season/week: -8.2/-1.2, 92.8% available).
Definitely add Lankinen if you need some help in the crease. We don’t know how long the Canucks have to go without Thatcher Demko, so we don’t know how long Lankinen has to collect value – but he’s doing it right now.
Power play notes
Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks (available in 61.9%): Zegras is included just to point out that the Ducks have zero power-play points in five games. Can it get any worse?
Jason Zucker, LW, Buffalo Sabres (97.7%): The Sabres have zero power-play points in seven games. I guess it can. Zucker is worth highlighting as his power-play time on ice (3:07) has been increasing as the team looks for answers on the advantage. That’s not to say he is the answer, but it does highlight the fact that we could end up with some unexpected value plays on the Sabres power play when things finally do click.
Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Chicago Blackhawks (34.8%): Earning his spot as Connor Bedard‘s running mate, Teravainen is relishing his return to Chicago. He’s third on the team in power-play minutes per game, but first with five power-play points. This looks like a combination and role that could stick for the entire campaign.
Ross Colton, LW, Colorado Avalanche (47.6%): As fun as the over-the-top production has been in recent games, Colton’s tear is what happens when you share every minute with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. It’s easy to have Colton keep the top power-play minutes now, but what about when Jonathan Drouin returns next week? What if Artturi Lehkonen returns shortly after? Valeri Nichushkin? Gabriel Landeskog? Absolutely enjoy this run from Colton, just don’t count on it for the long haul.
Alex DeBrincat, LW, Detroit Red Wings (6.1%): It didn’t take long for the Red Wings to work DeBrincat on to the top unit. He’s back where he belongs after J.T. Compher had the role to start the season.
Stefan Noesen, LW, New Jersey Devils (90.2%): Keep an eye on this current deployment with Noesen on the top unit. He would mix on and off the top power play for the Hurricanes the past two seasons, and he makes a solid net-front presence when he’s on.
Droppables
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Viktor Arvidsson, RW, Edmonton Oilers (41.4%): A bulk of his ice time has been spent with Leon Draisaitl and/or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and no points have come forth. Arvidsson’s struggles may be a reflection of the poor overall start by the Oilers, so you could maybe just bench him for now. But 0.5 fantasy points per game doesn’t have a long shelf life on any fantasy team.
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Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Seattle Kraken (45.3%): The Kraken leader in power-play points a season ago, Bjorkstrand currently ranks ninth on his team in power-play ice time per game.
Source: www.espn.com