The glory of regular-season NFL football returned last week and, with it, the reminder that everything we thought we knew was wrong … or at least different.
Remembering that this sport — like all things — is in constant flux, Daniel Dopp and I are heading back into the lab to tweak our approach to the 2024 season.
It was more fizzle than pop in Week 1, but that means there’s only one way to go:
Onward and upward! — Liz Loza
All odds as of publication time. For the latest odds, visit ESPN BET.
Quarterback props
Jayden Daniels 2+ combined passing/rushing TDs (-130)
Dopp: The Washington Commanders rookie is already a fantasy football rock star. All it took was one week to see his rushing game ability to know how dangerous this kid can be. Heck, it didn’t even take one week; we knew it coming out of the preseason! Daniels scored multiple rushing TDs in preseason and didn’t slow down in Week 1, turning 16 carries into 88 yards and two TDs. Listen, I’m not expecting multiple rushing TDs every week, but I could absolutely see him continuing to use his legs to double-digit carries week in and week out.
Against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers last week, Daniels also went 17-for-24 passing for 184 yards. This week, his Commanders draw the lowly New York Football Giants and their soft-as-a-cloud defense. Terry McLaurin gets a nice upgrade in Mike Clay’s Week 2 Shadow report, in part because the Giants showed little resistance to a Sam Darnold-led passing attack that saw the Minnesota Vikings score twice through the air and once on the ground.
Daniels is still looking for his first passing touchdown as a pro, but he won’t have to wait much longer. Don’t forget, this is a guy who threw 40 TD passes and only four INTs in his final season at LSU. And while we know he can run the ball, we can’t dismiss his passing ability. Nor can we dismiss his goal-line ability, after garnering three touches inside the 5-yard line last week. Not only was that tops at the QB spot, it tied for the most across all positions in Week 1. With his rushing ability, goal-line prowess and a hunger for his first NFL passing TD, I’m taking Daniels to hit the over on 2+ total passing/rushing touchdowns in Week 2.
Running back props
Najee Harris OVER 59.5 rushing yards (-105)
Loza: Harris appeared fresh and flourished in Arthur Smith’s offense in Week 1, averaging nearly 2 yards after first contact per rush (RB14). The 26-year-old carried the ball 20 times, with a quarter of those totes coming in the red area of the field. He might eventually cede touches to Jaylen Warren, as the younger back returns to full health from a hamstring injury. For the time being, however, Harris appears locked in as the Pittsburgh Steelers‘ lead back. With a line of 14.5 rushing attempts listed, Harris’ volume figures to remain hearty in Week 2.
Facing a Denver Broncos defense that gave up 5.0 YPC to opposing rushers last year (and over 100 rushing yards to Kenneth Walker III last week), Harris should cruise past 60 rushing yards for the favored Steelers on Sunday.
Aaron Jones OVER 2.5 receptions (-130)
Dopp: The Vikings are in for a world of hurt with the San Francisco 49ers coming to town in Week 2. Even without CMC last week, the Niners crushed the New York Jets in a game that wasn’t nearly as close as the 32-19 final score.
That’s why I’m looking at Jones’ receiving-game involvement as a prop this week. The Niners are 4.5-point favorites, and we expect the game script to look similar to that of Week 1: Run the ball, use the clock, rely on their premier pass catchers when they need to, but ultimately, win the game by a hefty margin. With the expectation of San Fran running away with this one, the Vikings will need to rely on their pass catchers to try to keep it competitive.
That’s where Jones comes into play. The former Packer is a proven pass catcher out of the backfield and can impact the game through the receiving game. Last week, Breece Hall, in a similar situation to what we expect Jones to be in, had five receptions for 39 yards against the 49ers. We don’t care about the yardage mark, but we do care about the passing-game involvement. I’m very much expecting Jones to be utilized out of the backfield as the Vikings do everything they can to keep it respectable.
Jones ran 11 routes last week and played 53% of the snaps. I’d like the snap number to be a little higher, but it’s not low enough for me to fade Jones in this one.
Wide receiver props
1:10
Yates and Dopp rave about Jameson Williams’ fantasy breakout
Yates and Dopp rave about Jameson Williams’ fantasy breakout
Jameson Williams OVER 44.5 receiving yards (-120)
Dopp: Liz deserves all the flowers for calling her shot on Jamo in Week 1. I was hopeful, but she put her confidence to the test, and EVERYONE came away a winner. Liz, me (as a Detroit Lions fan), Jamo bettors … heck, even Jamo himself after having a career day with five receptions (on nine targets) for 121 yards and a TD. That’s what dreams are made of!
In Week 2, I’m taking that aforementioned confidence and putting it right back into Williams. I do not expect him to have nine targets against the Buccaneers (that number should come in closer to 5-7 targets), and I’m also not expecting Amon-Ra St. Brown or Sam LaPorta to be as silent as they were against the Los Angeles Rams. But even with a potentially decreased workload, Jamo has shown us how explosive he can be with the ball in his hands. That big-play ability coupled with a seriously beat-up Buccaneers secondary is giving me serious “let’s just run it back” vibes.
Williams had three big chunk plays in Week 1: 36 yards, 52 yards (for a TD) and 27 yards. That’s a lot of upside for a guy whose line is under 45 receiving yards. I wish I could take a rushing and receiving prop since he’s also a threat to break an end-around for a big gain, but alas, that doesn’t exist at the time of this writing. Keep an eye out for it in case it does pop up over the weekend. Still, at home, against a weakened secondary, with no Antoine Winfield Jr, and with a boatload of confidence under his belt, I’m taking Jamo OVER 44.5 receiving yards.
Terry McLaurin OVER 49.5 receiving yards (-120)
Loza: Here’s a cringy stat: The Commanders are 0-7 ATS in their past seven games as favorites. I’m not saying Washington is doomed on Sunday. I am, however, suggesting that as 1.5-point favorites, rookie QB Jayden Daniels is likely to put the ball in the air more this coming Sunday than he did in Week 1.
We have seen McLaurin produce (four straight 1,000-yard seasons) regardless of who is under center. We also know that Daniels can be productive via the air (he completed 67% of his passes thrown 20+ yards downfield in 2023, the best of any Power 5 player in a season over the past decade). These two are motivated to get on the same page and, thankfully for Washington fans, a matchup against the Giants could expedite the process.
New York’s secondary not only allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to WRs (2,916) last year, but it also gave up 200 receiving yards to the Darnold-led Vikings last weekend. A 5-60-0 stat line from McLaurin seems well within reason.
Tight end props
Dallas Goedert OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
Loza: Goedert is the third option on an offense that averaged 7.2 yards per attempt last year and also happens to be playing in a game that has the third-highest projected point total for the week (47.5). As 6.5-point favorites, Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles probably won’t need to air it out, but Goedert will still move the chains.
With A.J. Brown drawing primary coverage from A.J. Terrell, Hurts might look to Goedert more frequently. The Falcons, after all, appear vulnerable over the middle of the field, having given up the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends last year and having just allowed Pat Freiermuth to convert all four of his looks last Sunday. Expect at least three grabs and 40 yards from Goedert in Week 2.
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Source: www.espn.com