Stock market today: US futures tread water after S&P 500’s record close

US stock futures held steady on Wednesday after a record S&P 500 close, with fresh economic data and Federal Reserve minutes on deck for pointers to rate cuts in a holiday-shortened session.

S&P 500 futures (ES=F) traded flat after the benchmark ended Tuesday above 5,500 for the first time. Contracts on the tech-filled Nasdaq 100 (NQ=F) were also little changed, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures (YM=F) edged up 0.1%.

Stocks were muted ahead of an early close (1 p.m. ET) to trading on Wednesday, ahead of the stock market’s shutdown on Thursday to mark the Independence Day holiday.

The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) hit fresh record closes after Jerome Powell touted progress on cooling inflation. That cemented hopes for an interest-rate cut even as the Fed chair once again signaled a lack of urgency to act. Traders are pricing in 65% odds of a move lower in September, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Eyes are now on updates on private payrolls and jobless claims due before the bell for insight on the labor market ahead of the key June jobs report release on Friday. Also on deck are data on services activity and factory orders, watched for further signs of economic slowing that could prompt policymakers to act.

In corporates, Paramount Global (PARA) shares climbed over 12% on reports Skydance Media has reached a deal that gives it a controlling stake in the entertainment giant.

Meanwhile, Tesla (TSLA) shares rose almost 3% in pre-market trading on the heels of a 10% surge Tuesday after the EV maker posted deliveries that beat Wall Street estimates.

Live1 update

Wed, July 3, 2024 at 4:47 AM MDT

Why Tesla’s stock hasn’t fallen like a rock in water

Tesla’s (TSLA) delivery numbers were bad.

Yet, the stock rallied 10% on Tuesday as the figures were above estimates. The stock is up another 3.5% in the pre-market.

Head-scratching!

I think Guggenheim analyst Ron Jewsikow — who continues to be super bearish on Tesla — nicely explains what we are seeing in the Tesla action:

“Looking ahead – production cuts, share losses in China and tariffs in Europe all set a negative backdrop for deliveries in the second half. That said, the prevailing sentiment in our conversations with investors is a lack of desire to be short ahead of the robotaxi event. The focus now shifts to 2Q EPS, full self driving take rate details and the 8/8 robotaxi event.”