Summary
By one popular definition, the stock market began a new bull market in June after the S&P 500 rose 20% from its bear-market lows set in October 2022. But there’s another theory that says a bear market doesn’t end until stocks reclaim all-time highs. Under that definition, the S&P 500 still needs to move more than 20 points higher to surpass the 4796 level. The bull scenario certainly seemed reasonable through July, as the S&P 500 was surging 28% from its prior depths. But from August through October, doubts were raised as stocks tumbled 10% and investors endured a correction. Since then, of course, stocks have climbed and, by our thinking, equities remain in the early stages of a bull market. Still, volatility is an issue due to geopolitical developments, high interest rates, the risk of recession, and the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential election. On the positive side, we anticipate that the U.S. economy will steer clear of recession into 2025, the Federal Reserve will start to lower interest rates in 2024, and earnings growth is poised to accelerate over the next few quarters. The VIX Volatility Index is currently sending a more-optimistic signal. The current fear index reading is around 14, which is below the 15-year average of 20.5 and signals that investors aren’t overly worried about the outlook. These readings compare to the average VIX of 24 during the most-recent bear market and 35 during the financial crisis of 2008-2009. During the long bull market in the 2010s, the VIX averaged 18 and even touched lows below 10 in 2017.
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Source: finance.yahoo.com