Win the Weekend: Fantasy football and betting tips

Want to know the latest trends, matchups and injury news in football? We’ve got you. Want to know where the public has money this week? We’ve got you. Want to know which teams to play, whom to roster in DFS or whom to pick in your Eliminator pool? We’ve got you there, too. Here’s everything you need to know as you prepare for your fantasy football matchups and potential bets on the games this weekend.

CFB: Action Report | Analytics Edges | Confidence pool picks

NFL: Injury update | Matchups to exploit | Eliminator Challenge | DFS plays | Analytics Edges | Action Report | Dolan’s ‘Trend or Trap’ | Confidence pool picks | Pigskin Pick’em

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College football

David Purdum’s Action Report

• The dramatic line movements that routine occur early in the season start to dwindle in late October and November. But there still were a handful of notable early line movements this week at Circa Sports, the influential Las Vegas-based sportsbook that posts some of the first weekly college football point spreads and totals. The Iowa State Cyclones opened as a 3-point road underdog against the Baylor Bears but quickly shifted to the favorite by Monday. On Thursday, the Cyclones were the consensus 2.5-point favorite.

• The No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs opened as high as a 16-point favorite over the Florida Gators, but the line had settled at UGA -14.5 heading into Friday. DraftKings was reporting balanced action on the game, with 56% of the point-spread money on the Gators.

• The line on the Oregon Ducks–Utah Utes game jumped two points, after opening as low as Ducks -4.5. The line climbed to as high as Oregon -7 during the week but was sitting at -6.5 as of Thursday. “Every time it gets to 7, it get bought back down, so 6.5 is probably the right number,” Joey Feazel, who oversees college football odds for Caesars Sportsbook, said on a company podcast. “Sharps like Oregon, but anything can happen in Salt Lake City. [Utah] has one of the best home-field advantages.” DraftKings was reporting nearly 80% of the point-spread money on the favored Ducks as of Thursday.

Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

• Oklahoma Sooners (-9) at Kansas Jayhawks: FPI makes this number Oklahoma by 17.4, an extraordinary difference from the line, considering that it doesn’t know Jason Bean likely will start at QB again for Kansas. Bean, who has started four games for Kansas this year, has a 67 QBR, while Jalon Daniels, who has started three games, has an 83 QBR.

• Ohio State Buckeyes to make the playoff (+118): After getting past Penn State, the Buckeyes now have a 73% shot at the playoff, according to the Allstate Playoff Predictor. Yes, Michigan still stands in Ohio State’s way. But even if the Buckeyes finish 11-1 with a loss to Michigan, they will still have a chance.

Joe Fortenbaugh’s Confidence picks

• Troy Trojans (-6.5) at Texas State Bobcats: Troy got steamed from -4.5 to -6.5 earlier this week — and for good reason. The Trojans have been cooking with gas over the past month. Since Sept. 23, Troy is 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread, thanks, in large part, to a stout defense that is permitting an average of just 8.5 points per game during that stretch. Texas State is an impressive 5-2 on the season, but that record has made the Bobcats a bit overvalued, as they’ve played a relatively favorable schedule to date.

• No. 8 Oregon at No. 13 Utah OVER 47.5 points: Yes, this game is at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, where the Utes have historically been dominant. But this is a favorable spot for Oregon. The Ducks are coming off their bye week, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for Kyle Whittingham’s defense. Further, Utah is off a monster upset win at USC last Saturday, so this is a tricky turnaround for the Utes. Look for Bo Nix and the Ducks to hang a respectable number as this one goes over the total.

• Kentucky Wildcats (+3.5) at No. 21 Tennessee Volunteers: Last week in Tuscaloosa, Tennessee led Alabama 13-0 after the first quarter and 20-7 as the teams went to their respective locker rooms for halftime. After that it was an Alabama 27-0 second half run en route to a 34-20 Tide victory. You think the Vols had a focused week of practice after that? Kentucky is off its bye week and catching 3.5 at home. Don’t be surprised if the Wildcats win this game outright.

NFL

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Why Fortenbaugh is taking the points with the Ravens on Sunday

Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he is laying the 9 points with the Ravens in their matchup with the Cardinals on Sunday.

Stephania Bell’s injury update

• Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill is dealing with a hip injury and was not at practice Wednesday, but he has played through ailments before and returned to practice Thursday, saying he will play Sunday.

• Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert had only nine carries and one reception in Week 7 and picked up an ankle injury in the process. Although Mostert has missed Wednesday practices in the past and returned to action, this time there is a new injury in the mix. His late week activity will be telling.

• Meanwhile, Miami wide receiver Jaylen Waddle was clearly in significant pain in last Sunday’s game when he developed back spasms. He left the game in the second quarter but eventually returned in the second half, notching four receptions after the injury. Despite the visible pain early, Waddle told reporters afterward that he felt “good.” He was back in practice Wednesday, listed as limited, and appears to have the best chance of the three to play.

• San Francisco 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan told reporters Wednesday that Brock Purdy is in the concussion protocol after Purdy began experiencing symptoms on the plane ride home from Minnesota on Monday night. Shanahan pointed out that Purdy’s symptoms had already improved to the point where he might be able to participate in portions of the walkthrough. Purdy was officially listed as a nonparticipant in Wednesday’s practice, and Sam Darnold took the starter’s reps. The plan is for Darnold to continue to take first-team reps in advance of Sunday’s game, but Shanahan pointed out that Purdy has played with no practice reps before. This remains a day-to-day situation and could go up to the weekend.

• Chicago Bears running back Roschon Johnson suffered a concussion three weeks ago and had not returned to the practice field until Wednesday. He was listed as a full participant, and, presuming no setbacks, he appears on track to return in Week 8. Johnson would need clearance from both the team physician and the independent neurological consultant to be eligible to play Sunday. Khalil Herbert (high ankle sprain) remains on injured reserve (out at least two more games). D’Onta Foreman got the start in Weeks 6 and 7.

• Get all the latest injury news here.

Matt Bowen’s matchups to exploit

• Baltimore Ravens‘ simulated pressures vs. Arizona Cardinals pass protection schemes: Baltimore’s defense has racked up 11 sacks over the past two games, with a pressure rate of 35.2%. And the Ravens are getting to the quarterback with simulated pressures. Out of multiple fronts, the Ravens are using second- and third-level blitzers to attack protection schemes, with late movement in coverage.

• Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert vs. the Bears’ zone defenses: Herbert will see a heavy mix of Cover 2 and Cover 3 on Sunday night versus the Bears. There will be opportunities for the Chargers to scheme up coverage voids at the second level, while also creating isolation matchups on deep half safeties. Herbert has averaged 8.8 yards per attempt versus zone coverage this season.

• For more breakdowns, check out Matt Bowen’s Film Room.

Mike Clay’s Eliminator Challenge advice

• Detroit Lions (vs. Las Vegas Raiders): The Lions are one of three teams with their highest remaining win probability this week. We already used the Ravens (at Cardinals) and Chargers (vs. Bears), so rolling with 5-2 Detroit and its 82% win probability at home against the 3-4 Raiders makes for an easy call. Even after last week’s debacle in Baltimore, the Lions rank 10th in combined offensive/defensive EPA, whereas the Raiders sit 29th. Detroit is 2-1 (average score of 31-22) at home this season, whereas Las Vegas is 1-3 (average score of 14-27) on the road.

• Follow Clay’s Eliminator Challenge advice all season long and find other tips for Week 8 here.

Al Zeidenfeld’s DFS plays

• When it comes to value plays, it’s the week of the running back on DraftKings. In head-to-head games and double-ups, Alvin Kamara ($7,400) and Breece Hall ($5,900) are leading the way because of their heavy workload, specifically tuned to be able to beat the DraftKings scoring system of full PPR with bonuses. For tournaments, lower-rostered players in good spots with great workloads and ceiling opportunities such as Jonathan Taylor ($6,200), Isiah Pacheco ($6,100) and Dameon Pierce ($5,300) provide great matchups and volume at low cost and ownership.

• More DFS plays here.

Seth Walder’s biggest edges from ESPN Analytics

• Travon Walker over 0.25 sacks (+200 at DraftKings): Quietly, Walker has been a much better pass-rusher this year, with a 19% pass rush win rate that is slightly above the 17% average for an edge rusher. That plus Desmond Ridder‘s higher-than-average 8% sack rate make this a value. My model makes the fair price +146.

• Zach Wilson under 0.5 interceptions (+102): Always a scary proposition to back Wilson, but unlike most starts for him, he enters this game as a light favorite over the Giants. That helps lower the odds of a pick. He has also been significantly better against man coverage, which the Giants play a high rate of. I make this number -115.

David Purdum’s Action Report

• The point spread on the Cincinnati Bengals-49ers game dropped 1.5 points on the news of San Francisco quarterback Brock Purdy entering concussion protocol. The 49ers went from 5.5-point favorites to 4-point favorites, with Sam Darnold in line to start if Purdy isn’t cleared. The Bengals, with Joe Burrow as their starter, have been excellent against the spread as underdogs, going 13-2 ATS as ‘dogs of at least 3 points.

• The Houston Texans are 3.5-point road favorites over the Carolina Panthers this week. Barring dramatic line movement, Sunday’s game in Carolina will snap Houston’s streak of 21 consecutive road games as an underdog, according to ESPN Stats & Information. The Texans’ last game as a road favorite was Week 14 of the 2020 season at Chicago. The Panthers are the only team yet to cover the spread this season, going 0-5-1 ATS. The game was attracting interesting early betting this week, with DraftKings reporting 83% of the point-spread money on the Panthers but 79% of the point-spread bets on Texans.

Erin Dolan’s ‘Trend or Trap’

Are these betting trends something to buy in on or a trap to stay away from?

• Joe Burrow is 13-2 ATS as an underdog of at least 3 points, including playoffs (11-2 ATS in regular season). TREND. The 49ers have lost their past two games, and now Brock Purdy is in concussion protocol. It’s not official that he is out, but considering that the line moved from Bengals +5.5 to +3 when the news came out (+4 as of Friday), it’s likely he isn’t under center and Sam Darnold gets the nod. The Bengals have not lived up to expectations this season, mainly because of Burrow’s health. Cincy is coming off the bye, and I think that could help in this game. I don’t blindly trust Sam Darnold, and it feels like it’s the time of the season when Burrow and company make a push to get some wins on the board. I’d take the points.

• Mike Vrabel is 26-16-1 ATS and 22-21 outright in his career as an underdog. He is 11-6 outright and ATS as a home underdog. Vrabel is 5-0 ATS coming off a bye. TRAP. While Vrabel has been great in this spot, it is uncertain who the starting QB will be this week. Vrabel will have to use Malik Willis or Will Levis if Ryan Tannehill is out after suffering a right high ankle sprain against the Ravens in Week 6. The Tennessee Titans are coming off the bye, but I think Atlanta is primed for a win. The Falcons’ defense is ranked third in total yards allowed per game and they are a team that can get an ugly win.

Anita Marks’ NFL Confidence picks

• Panthers (+3.5) vs. Texans: Carolina is coming off a bye and is handing over playcalling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. The Texans defense will not know what to expect from Bryce Young and crew. The Panthers are better than their 0-6 record, especially on the defensive side of the ball.

• New York Jets at New York Giants UNDER 36.5 points: Daniel Jones is not expected back this week, so Tyrod Taylor should get another start for the G-Men. Both teams will be highly committed to the run, eating away time of possession. And both defenses should have success limiting points.

Tyler Fulghum’s Pigskin Pick’em plays

We had one of our better weeks of the season in Week 7, getting outright upsets correct with the Bears, Giants and Pittsburgh Steelers. No teams are on bye in Week 8 so it’s a busy slate. Good luck everyone! Good luck in Week 8 of Pigskin Pick’em!

Source: www.espn.com