Does Wembanyama have to be the best rookie ever to justify his ADP?

Yao Ming during the 2002-03 season. LeBron James in 2003-04. Zion Williamson in 2019-20.

Some of the most anticipated prospects in history have entered the NBA this millennium. And, unless you got Thanos-snapped out of the basketball universe a year ago, you know that perhaps the most anticipated prospect of all was the No. 1 overall pick this summer and is set to make his NBA debut this week.

How will Victor Wembanyama stack up to his top-pick brethren?

And what quality threshold must he hit to justify the hype, expectations and his average draft position in fantasy leagues (19.3 as of Tuesday)?

The questions surrounding Wembanyama are challenging to answer in the NBA world. But in fantasy we can measure exactly how those other rookie seasons stack up to one another and to current players using fantasy points.

Let’s look at every No. 1 overall pick to have been drafted and played their rookie season since the year 2000.

And since a few of those top picks missed their first seasons because of injury, we’ll also add in a few No. 2 and No. 3 picks from those seasons (Kevin Durant in 2007-08, Jayson Tatum in 2018-19 and Ja Morant in 2019-20) to give us a round number of 25 rookie campaigns to analyze.

Three of the top picks who missed their first seasons because of injury are still included here (Greg Oden, Blake Griffin and Ben Simmons), with their rookie seasons beginning the year after they were drafted.

Using the standard ESPN scoring system, this is how those 25 top picks measure out in their rookie seasons:

Note: The 2011-12, 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons were less than 82 games, so they are prorated to 82-game schedules in the chart.

One last point of context: In fantasy drafts this season, Wembanyama has an ADP of 19.3, as noted above. The 20th-most fantasy points scored during the 2022-23 season were 2,942 by Anthony Davis. Now, let’s unpack our results.

There is a clear production separation between the top four players on this list and the rest. Ben Simmons, Blake Griffin, Karl-Anthony Towns and LeBron James each produced a fantasy point total near or above the threshold for a top-20 fantasy producer in 2023.

There is a gap of almost 400 fantasy points between them and the next tier of rookies, highlighted by Derrick Rose, Anthony Edwards, Deandre Ayton and John Wall.

There are some outstanding rookie seasons from legendary players, including strong campaigns produced by current or future Hall of Famers Yao Ming, Dwight Howard and Kevin Durant, that are significantly below the threshold of a top-20 fantasy season in today’s game.

Wembanyama, then, would need to produce a rookie season at least as good as James in 2003-04 to justify his top-20 fantasy draft slot. This is fitting, because LeBron is Wembanyama’s most apt historic comparison in terms of hype and expectations.

Can Wembanyama deliver as a rookie the way LeBron did?

Stylistically, one of Wembanyama’s best comps might just be rookie Towns, another of the players who produced a stat line worthy of a top-20 fantasy hoops pick this season.

Like Towns, Wemby is a prospect known for defense and shot-blocking ability but possessing a face-up game and jump shot that gives him a high offensive ceiling. It’s easy to forget, given how Towns has excelled on offense in the NBA, that when he was drafted it was his defensive upside that characterized him.

Wemby has a much higher defensive ceiling and enters the season with a legitimate chance to challenge for the NBA lead in blocked shots as a rookie.

Final thoughts and a nod to another rookie

It’s worth noting that the two highest scores on this list came from Simmons and Griffin, both of whom missed their draft seasons injured and went on to win Rookie of the Year the following seasons.

Might this give insight into Chet Holmgren? Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in the 2022 NBA draft, was forced to miss his first season because of injury and is now set to play his rookie season after a year to acclimate mentally and physically to the professional level.

Like Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson, Holmgren is among the favorites in this season’s Rookie of the Year race.

Source: www.espn.com