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Eric Moody, ESPN
Do you use tiers when preparing for your fantasy football drafts? Tiers are groups of players who are projected to have similar fantasy point production, with the drop-off between tiers representing a more significant projected points difference. With that in mind, let’s look at the quarterbacks.
Check out more tiered rankings: WR | RB | QB | TE
Quarterback Tier 1: The elite
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
3. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Notes: Allen and Hurts are true dual-threat QBs, and Mahomes also can add yardage with his legs. All are high-end QB1s. Allen has averaged 25.1 fantasy points per game over the past three seasons and is surrounded by playmakers, including Stefon Diggs, with whom he has connected for completions 338 times over the past three seasons, the most for a quarterback-wide receiver duo in the league.
Hurts gave fantasy managers a glimpse of his potential in 2021 and surpassed expectations in 2022 in what was a make or break season. It’s safe to say he made it. Hurts led all quarterbacks with 25.6 fantasy points per game. His rushing ability is well documented, but with three exceptional receiving targets in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert, we haven’t yet witnessed his ceiling as a passer.
Mahomes is a two-time league MVP and two-time Super Bowl champion, and over the past five seasons has averaged 303.3 passing yards and 24.1 fantasy points per game. Mahomes and Chiefs head coach Andy Reid are a match made in fantasy football heaven. The 28-year-old is one of the safest picks in drafts.
Tier 2: Midrange QB1
4. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
5. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
7. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
8. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Notes: Jackson touted the idea of throwing for 6,000 yards this season, and new Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken should position him to put up big numbers (OK, maybe not 6,000 yards) with playmakers Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman, Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews in tow. Jackson has averaged 21.4 PPG over the past three seasons.
Fields was hindered by a middling offensive line and one of the worst wide receiver groups in the league last season. He averaged just 149.5 passing yards per game but was able to finish as the fantasy QB6 thanks to his rushing ability. The Bears added wide receiver D.J. Moore this offseason and have significantly improved the offensive line. Fields has the potential to have a Hurts-like improvement in 2023.
Burrow threw a career-high 35 touchdown passes last season and finished as the QB4. With the dynamic trio of Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd, Burrow has the potential to be fantasy’s top QB this season if he can curb his interceptions (26 over the past two seasons). Burrow suffered a strained calf in late July and is expected to miss several weeks, but there is a good chance he’ll return to face the Browns in Week 1.
Lawrence had a tremendous 2022 season with first-year Jaguars coach Doug Pederson and saw his fantasy points per game increase from 12.7 to 17.8. Lawrence finished as the fantasy QB8 and had nine top-12 finishes. The addition of Calvin Ridley and Lawrence’s rushing ability make him an excellent option from this tier.
Herbert is one of my favorite bounce-back candidates. The Chargers QB suffered a rib injury early last season and also hurt his shoulder on the way to finishing as the QB17 in PPG. This season he’ll have a new offensive coordinator in Kellen Moore and another playmaker in first-year wideout Quentin Johnston to join receivers Mike Williams and Keenan Allen, who combined to miss 11 games last season.
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Tier 3: Low-end QB1/High-end QB2
9. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
10. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
11. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns
12. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
13. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
14. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
15. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
16. Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets
Notes: The frame, arm strength and running ability of Richardson make him an intriguing prospect, but his incredibly raw film might worry some fantasy managers. However, with the Colts, Richardson will work under new head coach Shane Steichen, who helped develop Hurts in Philadelphia and Herbert in Los Angeles. You might want to take a chance on him.
If you are more conservative, look no further than Cousins. Playing in a pass-heavy Vikings offense with receiving playmakers Justin Jefferson, rookie Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson, Cousins is very consistent. He has averaged 18.5 PPG since 2019.
Smith set Seahawks records for passing yards (4,282) and completion percentage (69.8%) last season and finished as the QB5 in fantasy. Smith is positioned for success again with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba as his top three receivers. He can be viewed as a low-end QB1.
Tier 4: Vets and youngsters
17. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
18. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
19. Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
20. Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints
21. Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
22. Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
23. Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
24. Bryce Young, Carolina Panthers
25. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
26. Sam Howell, Washington Commanders
Notes: Wilson was atrocious last season for the Broncos, posting career lows in completion percentage (60.5%), quarterback rating (84.4) and touchdown passes (16). He averaged a dismal 15.7 fantasy PPG after averaging 20.3 from 2018 to 2021. To make matters worse, the Broncos’ offensive line ranked 21st in pass block win rate, and Wilson was sacked a career high 55 times. With former Saints head coach Sean Payton taking over in Denver, there is hope for a resurgence to potential low-end QB1 status playing for one of the league’s most creative offensive minds. And Wilson did average 19.2 PPG in his last five games in 2022.
When it comes to fantasy football, some managers look only in the rearview mirror. That would be a mistake when it comes to Kenny Pickett, who averaged only 184.9 passing yards and 12.2 PPG in his rookie season. Players can experience significant growth during their first full offseason in the league after their rookie season. The Steelers are one of the most stable organizations and have playmakers at every position, including RB Najee Harris, WRs Diontae Johnson and George Pickens, and TE Pat Freiermuth. There’s a history of first-round QBs making big jumps in their sophomore seasons (Lawrence, Mahomes and Burrow, to name a few). Pickett is also underrated as a rusher and will benefit from an improved O-line.
Tier 5: Superflex options
27. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
28. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
29. C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans
30. Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
31. Jimmy Garoppolo, Las Vegas Raiders
32. Trey Lance, 49ers
33. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
34. Sam Darnold, 49ers
35. Will Levis, Titans
36. Jacoby Brissett, Commanders
37. Jarrett Stidham, Broncos
38. Gardner Minshew, Colts
Notes: Tannehill is the player I’m most interested in from this tier. Although he’s nearing the end of his career, I don’t see Tannehill moving aside in favor of second-round pick Levis this season. Tannehill is a solid QB2 or QB3 for managers in superflex formats. Tannehill averaged only 13.9 PPG last season but put up 19.2 PPG from 2019 to 2021. And it might surprise you, but Tannehill ranked fifth in yards per pass attempt (7.8) among quarterbacks who played 10 or more games last season. He also had the ninth-highest completion percentage on deep passes. With DeAndre Hopkins and Treylon Burks as his top two receivers, I expect Tannehill to exceed expectations in 2023.
Follow Eric on X, formerly known as Twitter: @EricNMoody
Source: www.espn.com