Summary
The S&P 500 is up approximately 20% from its bear-market lows of 3577 on October 12, 2022. That’s widely considered the end of a bear market and thus the beginning of a new bull market. What can investors expect going forward as (if?) a bull market begins? We have studied the 13 bull markets that have occurred since the end of World War II. On average, the S&P 500 gained 164% during these 12 periods, which averaged 57 months in duration. We also note that the recent bull markets have generated higher returns over longer periods of time. On average, the five bull markets since 1980 have seen stocks advance about 240% over a period of 70 months. And the bull market prior to the pandemic carried on for 11 years, during which stocks rose 500%. It is worth pointing out, though, that the 2009-2020 bull market began with stocks deeply depressed on valuation, whereas stocks are already a bit above fair value in the current market environment as interest rates are high and earnings growth has stalled. Even so, if rates head lower while earnings growth picks up and the economy can avoid a recession, then this new bull market could be off to a promising start.
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Source: finance.yahoo.com