Two Pacific Northwest teams head to the desert this week as double-digit favorites. Both of them are ranked. Both of their opponents are unranked. Which one should feel more secure?
That’s easy: The team that lost its season opener 49-3.
While the packaging is similar for Washington, a 14-point favorite at Arizona State, and Oregon, a 13-point favorite at Arizona, the reality is quite different.
When judging the Ducks, we simply ignore the Georgia loss. It’s not relevant to any matchups or results within Pac-12 play.
Instead, treat Oregon as an undefeated top-10 team with blowout wins over Brigham Young and Stanford and a come-from-behind victory at Washington State.
Treat Bo Nix as a quarterback with 12 touchdowns and only one interception.
Treat the offense as a unit averaging 50 points per game and the defense as a unit allowing just 25.5.
Because if the Ducks had done what everyone else in major college football did and opened their season against someone not named Georgia, their resume and analytics would have a different look entering Week Six.
And they assuredly would be favored by more than 13 points against an opponent that was beaten soundly by mediocre Cal two weeks ago and failed to demolish abysmal Colorado last weekend.
Eliminate the Georgia result and how it shaped the public perception of the 12th-ranked Ducks, and they would be favored by 18 or 20 points Saturday.
That same logic cannot be applied to Washington’s date with Arizona State.
Yes, the defeat last week at UCLA was an outlier result, the lone loss or sign of weakness from the No. 21 Huskies. And yes, it was a Friday night affair, a setting that is forever challenging for the road teams.
But it shouldn’t be brushed aside the way Oregon-Georgia should be ignored.
The Huskies are vulnerable defensively, especially in the secondary — how’s that for a role reversal on Montlake? — and they didn’t play with the same confidence in the Rose Bowl that was on display during their sizzling start in the comforts of home.
That’s significant this week. Of all the Pac-12 venues, none has been as inhospitable for the Huskies as Sun Devil Stadium, where they have lost seven consecutive games. (Last win: 2001.)
Also, let’s not ignore the difference in conditions on Saturday. It should be 90 degrees in Tempe for the 1 p.m. kickoff but only in the 70s in Tucson when Oregon takes the field for a 6 p.m. start.
Two Pacific Northwest teams head to the desert as double-digit favorites.
Which should feel more secure? That’s easy: The one with the irrelevant loss.
Last week: 5-1
Season: 17-19
Five-star special: 3-2
Spreads taken from BetMGM (as of 6:45 a.m. Wednesday)
Game totals in parenthesis
All times Pacific
Idle: Cal and Colorado
Utah at UCLA
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FOX
Line: Utah -4.5 (total: 64.5)
Comment: The top matchup of Week Six has significant conference championship repercussions. We’re fascinated by the tactical duel between Bruins coach/offensive playcaller Chip Kelly and Utah defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley. The Utes have dominated the series in recent years by controlling the line of scrimmage, but UCLA is better equipped this time around and must run the ball successfully to keep Utah guessing. Of note: The Utes opened as a 2.5-point favorite, so the public isn’t sold on the Bruins.
Pick: UCLA
Washington at Arizona State
Kickoff: 1 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Washington -14 (57.5)
Comment: We do not believe ASU is as bad as it looked just before (Eastern Michigan) and just after (Utah) Herm Edwards stepped down. The defense is vulnerable, for sure. But there are enough playmakers on offense for the Sun Devils to compete with most teams in the conference. If they limit turnovers and penalties, Emory Jones and Co. should collect plenty of first downs and touchdowns and make this interesting down the stretch. By dinnertime Saturday, support for Shaun Aguano as ASU’s permanent coach could begin to percolate.
Pick: Arizona State
Washington State at USC
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on FOX
Line: USC -13 (total: 66)
Comment: WSU’s front seven will cause USC trouble, but containing ultra-elusive quarterback Caleb Williams is paramount. Meanwhile, the Cougars should have opportunities to move the ball against a USC defense that ranks 71st nationally in yards-per-play allowed. If Cam Ward is secure with the ball — he hasn’t been to date — this will be a one-possession game in the fourth quarter. We like the Cougars but love the Under.
Pick: Washington State
Oregon at Arizona
Kickoff: 6 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: Oregon -13 (70)
Comment: Wildcats quarterback Jayden de Laura is perfectly capable of making spectacularly bad decisions under pressure, and he will be under pressure frequently against one of the top front sevens in the conference. (He threw two interceptions last year against Oregon while playing for Washington State.) We expect Arizona will stop itself periodically and to stop Oregon infrequently, a combination that should lead to the visitors covering the spread and the teams zooming past the total (70). Arizona is better, not better enough to threaten the Ducks.
Pick: Oregon
Oregon State at Stanford
Kickoff: 8 p.m. on FS1
Line: Oregon State -7 (56.5)
Comment: How far has Stanford fallen? It’s a seven-point underdog at home against a team that’s winless in conference play and doesn’t have a healthy starting quarterback. (OSU’s Chance Nolan injured his neck at Utah and is questionable.) But when you haven’t beaten an FBS opponent in more than a year, that’s life against the spread. The outcome depends entirely on the Beavers’ turnover tally. Two or more, they lose. One or zero, they win.
Pick: Stanford
Straight-up winners: UCLA, Washington, USC, Oregon and Stanford
Five-star special: Over in Washington-Arizona State. The total has gone into the 60s or 70s in each of UW’s four games against FBS opponents (Kent State, Michigan State, Stanford and UCLA). Saturday, the Over streak extends to five.
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Source: www.mercurynews.com