With only five weeks left in the NFL regular season, each game becomes more important for teams vying for a playoff spot. Divisional races are getting much clearer and with six teams on bye (Denver Broncos, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, Washington Commanders, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans), the battle for playoff and draft positioning continues.
Things kick off Thursday night with an NFC North tilt featuring the current Super Bowl favorite Detroit Lions (+250) welcoming the Green Bay Packers (+1300) to Ford Field as a 3.5-point favorite.
Action continues on Sunday with pivotal games as the Minnesota Vikings host the Atlanta Falcons, Philadelphia Eagles matchup with the Carolina Panthers and MVP favorite Josh Allen (-225) and the Buffalo Bills (+500 to win Super Bowl) play Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams.
On Sunday night, the AFC West takes center stage as Patrick Mahomes as the one-loss Kansas City Chiefs (+500) take on the Los Angeles Chargers (+3000).
Our team takes an early look at the odds to find value before lines move later in the week.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
Joe Fortenbaugh’s first bet: Kansas City Chiefs–Los Angeles Chargers UNDER 43.5 points
Last week: Seattle Seahawks (-2) over New York Jets. Line closed at 1.5. Seahawks won 26-21.
Fortenbaugh: This total closed 42 when these two met back in Week 4… a game that was won by Kansas City 17-10. What evidence do we have that would suggest a much higher-scoring affair this time around? Los Angeles ranks 18th in scoring, 30th in pace and is without running back J.K. Dobbins, who has been a big part of the team’s offensive success this season. On the flip side, Kansas City ranks 17th in pace and has scored 21 or fewer points in three of its last four games. This feels like a grind fest. Take note that “43” is the sixth-most key number when it comes to NFL totals.
Andre Snellings’ first bet: Chargers +3.5 over Chiefs
Last week: Detroit Lions (-11) over Chicago Bears. Line closed at 10. Lions won 23-20.
The number 3 is huge in NFL bets, particularly in this case. Because the Chiefs always seem to win no matter what. Pass interference to convert a 4th-and-16 on a game-winning drive? Bet. Blocking an opponent’s game-winning field goal as time expires? Yup. Opposing team botches a snap in the closing seconds while in the process of setting up for a game-winning field goal? Sure, why not? But the common denominator of all these miracle wins is that they are all very close games. The Chiefs are riding a four-game win streak but haven’t had a victory of more than 3.5 points, the last two against teams with a combined record of 5-19 (Carolina Panthers, Las Vegas Raiders).
The Chargers have also won five of their last six games. But their scoring margin in those six games is +49 compared to the Chiefs’ margin of +11 over the same stretch. Los Angeles is playing much better than they were the last time these two teams met. And even if the Chiefs pull it out, it is likely that it’s going to be a really close, last-second victory that falls within the 3.5-point margin.
Ben Solak’s first bet: Brock Bowers (+1200) to win Offensive Rookie of the Year
Last week: Tampa Bay Buccaneers–Carolina Panthers OVER 46.5 points. Total closed at 46.5. Buccaneers won 26-23.
Bowers is currently on pace to break the single-season receptions record for a tight end. Not for a rookie tight end — for all tight ends. He is also on pace to break Mike Ditka’s receiving yardage record for a rookie tight end, which was set in 1961 and hasn’t been knocked off since.
If Bowers breaks a rookie record that has stood for over 50 years and breaks a tight end record that includes all players, not just rookies, it will be hard not to give him the award. He currently has the third-shortest odds to win behind Jayden Daniels (-225) and Bo Nix (+250), but Daniels’ play is on a downswing, and Nix’s schedule is about to get a lot harder. It’s unlikely Bowers’ price ever gets longer than this, as he’ll stay in the race even when one of these two quarterbacks separates themselves.
Pamela Maldonado’s first bet: Clemson Tigers (+115) ML vs. SMU Mustangs
Last week: Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes OVER 39.5. Total closed at 41.5. Iowa won 13-10.
I expected Clemson to fall to South Carolina in Week 14 because of the challenges of the Gamecocks’ strong pass rush and mobile quarterback Lanoris Sellers. However, I like Clemson in the ACC championship game, particularly because of Cade Klubnik, who boasts a top-15 quarterback PFF grade. Klubnik brings valuable experience, now in his third year of postseason play. While SMU has a good defense, it’s worth questioning the strength of the passing offenses the Mustangs have faced, as their defense has primarily gone up against run-heavy teams. Despite this, SMU still ranks 92nd in passing yards allowed, which positions Clemson’s passing game, led by Klubnik, as a potential key advantage in the game.
Source: www.espn.com