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David Purdum, ESPN Staff Writer
It was Sunday afternoon, Nov. 17. The Buffalo Bills were handling the Kansas City Chiefs, and bookmakers around the nation were poised to do something they’d never done before — make the Detroit Lions the favorites to win the Super Bowl.
For weeks, the Lions had been closing the gap with the two-time defending champion Chiefs. They inched even closer with their blowout win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in the early slate, just prior to the Bills-Chiefs game. Then, at roughly 5:30 p.m., the trading team for ESPN BET hit the button and moved the Lions ahead of the two-time defending champion Chiefs in the odds to win the Super Bowl.
For the first time, the Lions were the Super Bowl favorites.
ESPN Research scoured through each of the Lions’ successful seasons during the Super Bowl era, cross-checking odds and looking for any instance when Detroit had been good enough to be considered the betting favorite. It didn’t take long.
While the research team acknowledges that the archived Super Bowl odds for the 1970 season were incomplete, the belief is the Lions had never been the favorites. But, they are now, and the betting public is completely behind them.
“Week to week, it doesn’t matter who they’re playing, the Lions are one of the most, if not the most, bet-on team,” said Christian Cipollini, BetMGM trading manager. “They’re the public darling.”
The Lions own the third-worst winning percentage in the Super Bowl era, behind only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Jaguars. The resilient fan base endured decades of mediocrity and futility, season after season of being the lovable long shots, rarely legitimate contenders. Sixteen years ago, they went 0-16 — a team that few bettors outside of Michigan would touch.
This season, however, more bets have been placed and more money wagered on the Lions to win the Super Bowl than on any other team at multiple sportsbooks nationwide. After years of rooting for Detroit, the Lions winning the Super Bowl is the worst-case scenario for sportsbooks.
The betting public jumped on the Lions’ bandwagon as soon as the first odds on the 2024 season popped up at sportsbooks, and there are some big potential payouts linked to Detroit winning the Super Bowl:
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Last February, the week after last season’s Super Bowl, a bettor with FanDuel placed a $27.34 four-leg parlay on the UConn Huskies men’s basketball to win the national championship, the Florida Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the World Series and the Lions to win the Super Bowl. With the first three legs already successful, the parlay, at 3233-1 odds, would pay $88,417.56, if the Lions win the Super Bowl.
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A bettor with DraftKings used a $50 site credit to place a four-leg parlay on the Boston Celtics winning the NBA Finals, the Panthers to win the Stanley Cup, the Dodgers to win the World Series and the Lions to win the Super Bowl. The parlay, at around 1894-1 odds, would pay $94,720.
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More recently, Caesars Sportsbook reported taking a $150,000 bet on the Lions to win the Super Bowl at +440 odds to win $660,000.
And the Lions are absolutely the favorites. Oddsmakers say Detroit would be favored over every team in the league at this point, including the Chiefs. The bookmakers added that they’re trying to push up the point spreads on Lions to slow down the betting public, but so far it hasn’t worked.
“They are our biggest overall loser almost every week,” Cipollini said.
Ten weeks into the season, more bets have been placed and more money wagered on the Lions’ money lines and point spreads than any other team at multiple sportsbooks. Detroit is 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread, entering Thursday’s game against the Chicago Bears. Since 2021, the Lions are 44-18 against the spread. That’s the best four-year span against the spread of any team in the Super Bowl era, according to ESPN Research.
“The Lions and the Chiefs have separated from the pack in terms of bets and handle on Super Bowl winner,” said Adrian Horton, director of North American sports trading for ESPN BET. “Given their longer price to start the year, Detroit is our biggest Super Bowl liability as things stand today. That’s fluid, with a third of the regular season left to play, but for now we’ll be hoping to see teams other than the Lions in New Orleans.”
Even the Lions just reaching the Super Bowl could prove expensive for sportsbooks. Detroit has attracted more money from bettors to win the NFC than the next seven teams combined at BetMGM.
“I think that shows Lions fans aren’t just in Michigan,” states Wes Westhoff, a Michigan native and lifelong Detroit sports fan who works for BetMGM. “More money bet than the next seven teams combined? Those wagers are coming in from all over the country, which, as a Lions fan, is kind of strange to see. But it’s pretty cool, too.”
Westhoff is a Michigan-based regional marketing manager for BetMGM, who regularly pops into the sportsbook at MGM Grand Detroit on football weekends. He says the Las Vegas-style sportsbook has never been this busy and bets on any team other than the Lions are few and far between in Michigan. At BetMGM’s Michigan sportsbook, 74% of the money that’s been bet on the Super Bowl odds is on the Lions — nearly three times as much as all other teams combined.
“Through my lifetime, I’d say [the Lions fanbase] typically starts optimistic, whether that’s warranted or not,” Westhoff said. “Big Lions fans are very passionate, very loyal. And then typically, as seasons go on and maybe the team doesn’t turn out to be as good as they had hoped, it falters a little big. But, obviously, the last couple of years that has completely changed.”
This summer, BetMGM posted early lines on the Thanksgiving NFL matchups. They opened the Lions as 4-point favorites over the Bears. This week, in the days ahead of the Thursday game, Detroit is a 10.5-point favorite over the Bears.
Westhoff, the BetMGM marketing manager, recalled his late grandfather telling him stories of Bobby Layne quarterbacking the Lions to championships in the 1950s.
“Lions fans have put in a lot of years watching maybe not the greatest of teams,” Westhoff said. “You can have a long life and not experience what we’re experiencing right now. So, that’s a good place to be for now. Hopefully, the success continues. There’s a long road still to go, but I think everyone’s just really enjoying the ride right now.”
Everyone, that is, except the bookmakers.
Source: www.espn.com