For many years, amid fan festivals, T-shirt giveaways and light-up bracelets that spice up opening nights across the NBA, there has been an open secret that hangs over tipoffs each season.
Almost none of these teams celebrating fall renewals will have a chance to win by spring.
In a “good year” throughout the 2000s and 2010s, maybe five teams per season could truly look themselves in the mirror at the season’s start and believe they could hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June. Don’t even ask about the 1980s and ’90s, when the league was basically dominated by five teams over 20 years.
It was good for business in many respects, but from 1999 to 2007, Tim Duncan or Shaquille O’Neal was in the Finals in eight out of nine years. From 2007 to 2020, either LeBron James or Kobe Bryant was in the Finals in 12 of the 13 years (sadly, never against each other). You might recall the Golden State Warriors, who played in six Finals (2015-22), and the Cleveland Cavaliers played in the Finals four consecutive years from 2015 to 2018.
Which brings us to today. Parity has swept through the NBA like a breath of fresh air. This season, an exponential number of teams will begin the season believing they can win compared with a decade ago. And with good reason.
It’s true that the legacy Boston Celtics are the reigning champions, about to hang banner No. 18 and collect their rings on opening night, but last June they became the sixth different team in a row to celebrate under the confetti.
Eight teams start the season with championship odds of 13-1 or better, according to ESPN BET. Before the 2017-18 season, which as it turned out proved to be the end of the dynasty era, there were only two teams with those odds.
In this six-year span of change, some legacy teams indeed won — the Warriors, Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers — but there were glorious and unique championship parades in Milwaukee, Toronto and Denver, too.
There are a few major storylines to follow this season. The new-look Philadelphia 76ers being the newest quasi-superteam, assuming they can all get on the court together. The continued rise of the Oklahoma City Thunder, fueled by the addition of some high-class role players. The ascension of Anthony Edwards and the Minnesota Timberwolves. The challenge of past champions, the Milwaukee Bucks and Denver Nuggets, to regain momentum with franchise players in their primes. And, of course, LeBron and Bronny James on the Lakers.
But maybe the most relevant storyline is that this collective group believes it can hold back the Celtics.
The 2024-25 NBA regular season opens with the New York Knicks taking on the Celtics (7:30 p.m. ET) and the Timberwolves facing the Lakers (10 p.m. ET) on Tuesday. But before we jump, let’s preview all 30 teams, where they stand and what to expect ahead of the NBA’s 79th season.
— Brian Windhorst
Note: Team rankings are based on where members of our panel (ESPN’s Kendra Andrews, Tim Bontemps, Jamal Collier, Michael Wright, Tim MacMahon, Dave McMenamin, Ohm Youngmisuk, Chris Herring and Kevin Pelton) think teams belong heading into this season.
Jump to a team:
ATL | BOS | BKN | CHA | CHI | CLE
DAL | DEN | DET | GS | HOU | IND
LAC | LAL | MEM | MIA | MIL | MIN
NO | NY | OKC | ORL | PHI | PHX
POR | SAC | SA | TOR | UTAH | WAS
BPI’s overall ranking: 2
Chances to make playoffs: >99.9%
Projected wins: 56.0
When we last saw them: After years of coming close, the Celtics finally claimed banner No. 18 with a dominant run through the playoffs, capped by a five-game defeat of the Dallas Mavericks. The 2023 offseason acquisitions of Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis transformed Boston into a juggernaut that won a league-leading 64 games with a 16-3 mark in the playoffs. Boston’s summer was spent keeping the team intact. Extensions were given to Jayson Tatum, Derrick White and Sam Hauser, after Holiday got his own in April. The biggest news of Boston’s offseason was the Grousbeck family putting its controlling stake in the team up for sale. The decision has left the short-term future of the team — set to cost more than $500 million in combined payroll and luxury taxes for the 2025-26 season — up in the air.
Biggest strength and weakness: Boston has plenty of strengths, but its 3-point shooting is near the top of the list. The Celtics averaged more than 50 attempts per game in their opening preseason games in Abu Dhabi, and it won’t be a shock to see them set the NBA record for makes and attempts this season. There aren’t many obvious weaknesses, but center health stands out. Al Horford is in his age-38 season and Porzingis is already out until at least December because of offseason surgery. The Celtics probably will need both players to repeat as champs. — Tim Bontemps
Celtics in NBA Rank:
Jayson Tatum (5)
Jaylen Brown (14)
Jrue Holiday (36)
Derrick White (39)
Kristaps Porzingis (46)
Al Horford (96)
Number to watch: Scoring and clutch net efficiency
The Celtics outscored opponents by 10.7 points per game last season — the fifth-best differential in NBA history. They also went 6-0 in clutch-time games with a plus-46.9 net efficiency — the first team to do so in a single postseason since play-by-play was first tracked in 1997.
Best bet: Celtics win division (-145)
The Celtics were the dominant team in the NBA last season, winning the East by a whopping 14 games in the regular season before going through the playoffs with a 16-3 record. Despite teams such as the Knicks and 76ers making great offseason moves, the gap between the Celtics and those teams was so large that Boston should still be a huge favorite to win the Atlantic Division. Those moves by competitors got the odds to move to almost even money, making the Celtics excellent value here. — Andre Snellings
Fantasy: Do draft … Derrick White
I doubt many fantasy managers realize White finished 36th in ESPN fantasy points, and he was 24th on the Player Rater. He is a prime example of how fantasy points can evolve from stats other than traditional scoring, including assists, 3-pointers and blocked shots. Incidentally, White outscored his far more famous teammate Jaylen Brown last season. — Eric Karabell
BPI’s overall ranking: 1
Chances to make playoffs: 97.3%
Projected wins: 51.2
When we last saw them: The Thunder’s “breakfast” season — borrowing from general manager Sam Presti’s analogy to indicate how early the organization was in the building process — ended up being a breakout campaign. After a three-year playoff hiatus, Oklahoma City became the youngest No. 1 seed in NBA history and advanced to the Western Conference semifinals, giving the Thunder reason to believe the foundation of a long-term contender is already in place with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the last two Rookie of the Year runners-up, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren. OKC also added two high-caliber role players in Alex Caruso and Isaiah Hartenstein — without dipping into OKC’s stockpile of first-round draft capital — during the offseason to enhance the West’s most well-rounded roster.
Biggest strength and weakness: It’s hard to find a weakness on this roster. Presti addressed the Thunder’s glaring flaw (28th last season in rebounding rate) by adding Hartenstein. The former Knick will sit out at least the first month of the season, but reigning Coach of the Year Mark Daigneault will soon have the option of playing two skilled 7-footers together in a jumbo-sized lineup that assures OKC will almost always have a rim-protector on the court. Presti flipped the one starter who was a questionable fit, guard Josh Giddey, for an elite glue guy with championship experience in Caruso. The Thunder joined the Celtics as the only teams to rank among the top five in offensive and defensive ratings last season, and Oklahoma City could be even better on both ends of the court. — Tim MacMahon
Thunder in NBA Rank:
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (4)
Chet Holmgren (32)
Jalen Williams (44)
Alex Caruso (59)
Luguentz Dort (85)
Isaiah Hartenstein (88)
Number to watch: Gilgeous-Alexander’s production
He averaged 30.1 points, 54% shooting and 2.0 steals, becoming the third player to average those numbers, joining Michael Jordan and Stephen Curry.
Best bet: Gilgeous-Alexander to score 50+ points in any regular-season game (+130)
Only Luka Doncic (33.1) and Joel Embiid (34.1) are projected to have a higher PPG than Gilgeous-Alexander (32.0). His career high is 44 points, but he had six games with 40-plus last season. As the Thunder’s top offensive playmaker, there’s a strong chance he’ll finally hit 50 this season. — Eric Moody
Bold fantasy prediction: Chet Holmgren becomes a fantasy superstar
The leap from unknown to rotation player is always an intriguing development. The rare surge from there to stardom can change your fantasy fortunes or the outcomes for real NBA teams. The rarest of transitions, however, is from star to superstar. This will occur for Holmgren this season. My bold take is that he will ascend to — while not Wemby heights — an entirely new statistical tier that includes dominant defense and a growing offensive repertoire that could become even more dangerous given his team’s added talent. He’s the only player who should be considered a peer with San Antonio’s special center in terms of block rate potential, while the support of his gifted teammates frees him up for direct handoffs, high-efficiency cut-and-lob plays, and even spot-up 3-point work. Put it this way, this is the last season for likely a decade that you can get Chet outside of the first round. — McCormick
BPI’s overall ranking: 19
Chances to make playoffs: 64.6%
Projected wins: 40.6
When we last saw them: Even without star forward Julius Randle and center Mitchell Robinson, who’d been ruled out due to surgical procedures, the Knicks were on the cusp of reaching the Eastern Conference finals as they hosted the Pacers at Madison Square Garden in Game 7. But then the wheels came off in just about every conceivable way, with OG Anunoby — who tried to come back from a hamstring strain prematurely — hobbling around from the start, and star guard Jalen Brunson fracturing his shooting hand later in the game. By that point, the snakebit New York club lacked the horses to close out Indiana — let alone take on the eventual champion Celtics in the next round.
Biggest strength and weakness: The club’s offense, which at times was bogged down last season when teams sought to wall off Brunson, should be supercharged this season with the high-profile addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. The duo of Brunson and Towns will be difficult to stop: Is it more important to sink down and seal off Brunson’s ability to get to the basket, or is the priority to stay with Towns if and when he stays on the perimeter? Regardless, the Knicks will now have better floor spacing. New York’s depth undoubtedly took a hit with the loss of Randle and Donte DiVincenzo in a trade to Minnesota for Towns. Randle was a two-time All-NBA selection and was one of the toughest players on a team, and DiVincenzo — on one of the league’s best contracts — hit the third-most 3-pointers in the NBA in 2023-24. Because of the bruising style the Knicks play under coach Tom Thibodeau, depth always matters; particularly on the wings. Speaking of wings, the Knicks might have the best defensive duo in Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. But there’s still a question of rim protection with Towns, who primarily played power forward in Minnesota. This will be a shift for the big man, especially with Robinson, the backup center, unavailable for the first few months. — Chris Herring
Knicks in NBA Rank:
Jalen Brunson (12)
Karl-Anthony Towns (30)
Mikal Bridges (38)
OG Anunoby (51)
Josh Hart (61)
Mitchell Robinson (82)
Number to watch: Defense of Bridges and Anunoby
Over the past three seasons, Bridges has given up a 42.9% field goal percentage as the contesting defender, fifth lowest among 50 players to have contested at least 2,500 shots. Alongside Bridges on the wing will be Anunoby. The Knicks went 20-3 in Anunoby’s 23 games compared with 30-29 in his absence (from injury or pre-trade).
Best bet: Brunson to average over 26.5 points (-125).
Brunson averaged 28.7 points last season, comfortably over the 26.5 threshold. He was the clear focal point of the Knicks’ offense, working largely off the dribble with high usage. Despite New York’s big trades this offseason, its offensive lineup doesn’t change largely in scoring and playmaking caliber. If anything, with DiVincenzo no longer in town, Brunson might have to create even more. — Snellings
Fantasy: Do draft … Josh Hart
Hart is tougher to roster in roto/categories formats, since he neither scores much nor provides many 3-pointers, but for those who have to fill positions, having a guard rebound to this high level is golden. Hart goes undrafted in many leagues. — Karabell
BPI’s overall ranking: 6
Chances to make playoffs: 81.6%
Projected wins: 46.3
When we last saw them: The Nuggets, after winning the 2023 NBA title, were bounced in the second round on their home court in a Game 7 loss to the Timberwolves. Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray & Co. looked physically and mentally spent after trying to defend their title but now look to get back to the top of the West. They’ll do it without key cog Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who left in free agency for Orlando, although Denver added Russell Westbrook to give them a much-needed spark and leadership off the bench.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Nuggets will once again rely heavily on the best player in the game (and recently voted as the No. 1 player in ESPN’s top 100) in reigning MVP Jokic, who ranked in the top five in total points, rebounds and assists last season. He might have to shoulder even more during the start of the season after coach Michael Malone said Murray felt something “funny” in his knee ahead of last week’s preseason game against Phoenix. The Nuggets’ title hopes will be determined by Murray’s health as well as their bench after Christian Braun moved up into the starting lineup. As such, Westbrook, Peyton Watson, Julian Strawther and Dario Saric will have to do one of the tougher things in basketball — deliver positive minutes when Jokic is resting. — Ohm Youngmisuk
Nuggets in NBA Rank:
Nikola Jokic (1)
Jamal Murray (31)
Aaron Gordon (49)
Michael Porter Jr. (89)
Number to watch: Jokic’s offensive prowess
The Nuggets outscored opponents by 682 points with Jokic on the court last season and in contrast were outscored by 251 points with him on the bench. Last season was the second consecutive one when Jokic led the NBA in plus/minus.
Best bet: Western Conference No. 5 Seed (+800)
Though Jokic is a three-time MVP who has carried the former champs when needed, even he can’t do it all. Murray looked banged up during the Olympics, and, with his new contract extension, the pressure on him is immense. Another issue is the tough competition in the West. Teams such as the Kings, Mavericks, Timberwolves and Thunder might be hungrier to win a championship and, in some cases, have better rosters than Denver. — Moody
Big fantasy question: Joker or Wemby at No. 1?
I am not drafting Joker No. 1 this season, despite his extremely worthy résumé and outlook, because I am taking a chance on the Alien. Wembanyama has a chance to put together a sophomore season for the ages. He has the potential to push toward the league lead in scoring and rebounding, and toward the league lead among centers in assists, steals and 3-pointers. He is flat going to lead the league in blocked shots, likely by a lot. In points-based leagues, I project Joker with a slightly higher fantasy points total than conservative estimates for Wemby, but it’s still close. Those same conservative estimates put Wemby on an island, alone in first place, in projected category-based league value. Overall, while Jokic has the higher floor than Wemby, with the top pick I’m taking a chance on the player with no ceiling. — Snellings
BPI’s overall ranking: 3
Chances to make playoffs: 99.6%
Projected wins: 51.5
When we last saw them: The 76ers lost a hard-fought six-game series to the Knicks in the first round of the playoffs. Each team completed wild comebacks inside Madison Square Garden, with New York ultimately ending Philadelphia’s season on its home court. Former MVP Joel Embiid never quite looked like himself after sitting out most of the final 2½ months of the season because of a knee injury and returned just before the playoffs.
In response to their postseason performance, Philadelphia landed Paul George in free agency — one of the biggest offseason trades via free agency since Kawhi Leonard joined George with the Clippers five years earlier. They also re-signed Tyrese Maxey, extended Embiid, signed Andre Drummond, Eric Gordon and Caleb Martin and also brought back Kelly Oubre Jr. and Kyle Lowry. They also have several first-round picks they can use in deals to improve this season.
Biggest strength and weakness: Star power. When healthy, the trio of Embiid, George and Maxey is just as good as any team entering this season. If Philadelphia is going to break its decades-long championship drought, it’ll be on the backs of those stars delivering in April, May and June. Conversely, this team’s weakness is the health record of Embiid and George who are both currently dealing with injuries that stifled them in the preseason. The future of the franchise depends on the chemistry these two superstars cultivate this season — they just need to be on the court to do so. — Bontemps
76ers in NBA Rank:
Joel Embiid (8)
Tyrese Maxey (19)
Paul George (21)
Number to watch: Embiid’s availability
The 76ers had a .795 win percentage with Embiid on the court and a stark .372 win percentage without him.
Best bet: Embiid to win MVP (+1800)
This is an interesting “long shot” bet, because Embiid won the MVP in 2022-23 and was the front-runner to repeat as MVP the next season before his injury. If healthy and available for the NBA-mandated 65 games, Embiid probably would be an MVP favorite. But Embiid has played 65 games only twice in the 10 seasons since he was drafted, explaining the long shot odds. Nevertheless, at 18-1, he is worth a flier because the bet is more similar to “Will he play 65 games?” than “Is he worthy to be MVP?” — Snellings
Fantasy bold prediction: Andre Drummond will average a double-double
Drummond is 31 now, and he hasn’t achieved this since the 2020-21 season, but what a great opportunity he has now that he’s back in Philly. We know Joel Embiid is not going to play close to every game. He didn’t play in even half of the games last season. Drummond averaged 14.1 PPG and 17.9 RPG during his 10 starts for last season’s Chicago Bulls, finishing at 8.4 PPG and 9.0 RPG overall. Assuming Drummond starts at least twice as much, and perhaps a lot more than that, he becomes a viable option in deeper leagues. — Karabell
BPI’s overall ranking: 4
Chances to make playoffs: 96.3%
Projected wins: 50.3
When we last saw them: The Mavericks morphed into contenders after the trade deadline last season, when GM Nico Harrison continued the aggressive roster reconstruction around the star duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving by acquiring two athletic role players (forward P.J. Washington and center Daniel Gafford). Dallas, which had the league’s stingiest defense for the final quarter of the regular season, rolled all the way to the NBA Finals before the supporting cast’s spotty 3-point shooting prevented the Mavs from mounting much of an upset bid against the Celtics. Harrison addressed that void by winning a free agency recruiting battle for Klay Thompson, one of the most dangerous catch-and-shoot threats in NBA history.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Mavs have all the ingredients to be an elite offensive team. They feature the league’s most potent pair of playmakers in Doncic and Irving, and they’ve surrounded them with players with gravitational pull, such as Thompson as a 3-point shooter and the center tandem of Dereck Lively II and Gafford as lob-finishing vertical spacers. Coach Jason Kidd said they’ll figure out during the “journey” of the season how to maximize the fit of all the pieces — specifically meshing Thompson’s constant off-ball movement with Doncic’s preferred style that is heavy on pick-and-roll and isolations. The big question is whether the Mavericks’ defense can be tough enough to return to the Finals. Plugging Thompson, 34, into the spot that was formerly occupied by free agency departee Derrick Jones Jr. leaves the Mavs without a primary perimeter defender in the starting lineup. “I want to get rid of that notion that I’m not the same defender as I once was,” Thompson said. “I truly believe I am, and I’m excited to prove people wrong, that I can still guard the elite players in this league.” — MacMahon
Mavericks in NBA Rank:
Luka Doncic (2)
Kyrie Irving (25)
Dereck Lively II (56)
Klay Thompson (71)
Number to watch: Thompson’s contributions from beyond the arc
The Mavericks took the most corner 3s in the NBA last season but made only 36% of those, 28th in the league, per Second Spectrum. With the Warriors last season, Thompson shot 41.4% on corner 3s last season — 35th out of 74 players with at least 100 attempts.
Best bet: Doncic as first player to score 70+ points in a regular-season game (+1500)
It seems inevitable, especially considering Doncic averaged so many points per game last season. He had two standout performances, scoring more than 50 points in each. Last season, he dropped 50 points against the Suns on Christmas Day and just a month later went off for an incredible 73 points against the Hawks on Jan. 26. It wouldn’t surprise anyone if Doncic gets off to a fast start this season. — Moody
Fantasy make-or-break pick: Kyrie Irving
Irving has averaged stellar per-game numbers over his past five seasons: 26.7 PPG (49.3 FG%, 39.9 3P%, 91.2 FT%), 5.7 APG, 4.9 RPG, 3.0 3PG,1.3 SPG and 0.6 BPG with only 2.2 TO/G. Unfortunately, due to a combination of injuries and off-the-court issues, he has averaged only 44.2 games per season during that stretch. Last season, Irving ranked 22nd in the league in fantasy points per game but 47th in total fantasy points. His availability versus his draft status could make a major impact on his fantasy hoops squads, for good or for ill. — Snellings
BPI’s overall ranking: 7
Chances to make playoffs: 82.8%
Projected wins: 46.5
When we last saw them: The Wolves are coming off one of the most successful seasons in franchise history, making an appearance in the Western Conference finals for just the second time. And to build off that 56-win season, Minnesota made a franchise-altering trade before the start of training camp by trading four-time All-Star big man Karl-Anthony Towns to the Knicks for forward Julius Randle, guard Donte DiVincenzo and a future first-round pick. It’s a move the Wolves hope gives them a deeper team surrounding guard Anthony Edwards as he continues to develop into a star.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Wolves were the No. 1 defensive team in the NBA by a comfortable margin last season, which figures to be their strength again with four-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert in the middle along with Edwards and Jaden McDaniels on the wings. Yet, Edwards has stated multiple times he believes the Wolves need their crunch-time offense to improve at the end of games, which begins with his decision-making and growth as the team’s go-to option. — Jamal Collier
Timberwolves in NBA Rank:
Anthony Edwards (10)
Rudy Gobert (34)
Julius Randle (48)
Donte DiVincenzo (75)
Jaden McDaniels (77)
Naz Reid (87)
Mike Conley (98)
Number to watch: Fourth-quarter offense.
Entering last season, the Timberwolves ranked 27th in fourth-quarter offensive efficiency. But from last February to the end of the regular season, Minnesota was second, trailing only the Mavericks.
Best bet: Edwards regular-season MVP (+1000)
Edwards is a legitimate contender for the award, and here’s why. He averaged 25.9 PPG, 5.1 APG and 5.4 RPG last season, with a usage rate of 32.2% (fifth highest in the league). Based on our projections, that number could rise to nearly 35% this year. Edwards is also a strong defender and has stayed relatively healthy, averaging 75.5 games per season. He’s a great value, with the sixth-best odds to win the award. — Moody
Bold fantasy prediction: Naz Reid will be a top-75 player
Reid was a fantasy darling during the last half of the 2023-24 season and finished in the top 120 despite playing behind Gobert and Towns, who both stayed relatively healthy. Reid had a career year, averaging 13.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, 0.8 steals, 0.9 assists and 2.1 3-pointers, but he was even better after the break, posting 16.0 points, 6.6 boards, 1.0 steals, 1.2 blocks and 2.5 triples. KAT is now in New York, and while Randle (and Gobert) will still be in the way, Randle is no KAT. Minnesota knows how good Reid is, and we’re all about to see it this season. — Alexander
BPI’s overall ranking: 10
Chances to make playoffs: 55.5%
Projected wins: 42.7
When we last saw them: The Suns were swept out of the first round by the Timberwolves , losing the four games by a combined 60 points. The team’s big three of Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, and Kevin Durant fell flat after entering the season with the third-best championship odds. But the team started off 4-6 and failed to find consistency thanks in large part to Beal missing 29 games and a lack of depth to mask his absence. Frank Vogel paid the cost for failing to reach expectations, fired after one season as coach. Mike Budenholzer, a championship coach thanks to his Milwaukee Bucks beating the Suns in 2021, is now tasked with making the pieces fit.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Suns were fifth in the league in team 3-point percentage (38.2%) and scored 11.3% of their points on midrange shots, the second most in the league. With Durant, Booker and Beal, the Suns are an elite jump shooting team. However, their offensive diet also exposed a weakness last season. Only 40.4% of their team points came in the paint, which ranked 27th in the NBA. — Dave McMenamin
Suns in NBA Rank:
Kevin Durant (9)
Devin Booker (15)
Bradley Beal (70)
Number to watch: Scoring with a healthy Booker, Beal and Durant
The Suns had their big three for exactly half of the regular season in 2023-24. However, when they were on the floor together, the Suns scored 120.5 points per 100 possessions — a mark equivalent to the Pacer’s No. 2 offense.
Best bet: Western Conference No. 2 seed (+1600)
The Suns addressed nearly all of their offseason issues. They needed a point guard so Booker and Beal could play off the ball, so they added Tyus Jones. Monte Morris adds backcourt depth, and Mason Plumlee solves the backup center problem. I also like what rookie Ryan Dunn brings defensively. The main concern? Keeping Booker, Durant and Beal healthy for the playoffs. But Budenholzer will do everything to ensure they’re ready when it matters most, which could lead to some DNPs. — Moody
Fantasy make-or-break pick: Kevin Durant
Durant, like LeBron, is another aging legend who had missed a lot of games in recent seasons before a renaissance in the past year. After playing only 137 of a possible 308 games between the end of the 2019 playoffs and the start of the 2023-24 season, Durant bounced back in a huge way and played 75 of 82 games last season. Another season like that, likely from a second- or third-round fantasy pick, would be huge. But Durant will be 36 before the season begins and is in Season 18, making him a risky pick in the early rounds. — Snellings
BPI’s overall ranking: 8
Chances to make playoffs: 93.4%
Projected wins: 46.0
When we last saw them: Milwaukee fell in the first round of the playoffs for the second consecutive season. An injury near the end of the regular season to Giannis Antetokounmpo prevented the Bucks from playing in a postseason game with both him and Damian Lillard. This offseason they added a few key reserves — Gary Trent, Taurean Prince, Delon Wright — to round out their depth but are hoping some continuity with their two stars and coach Doc Rivers will help the team reach its championship potential.
Biggest strength and weakness: Experience will be a double-edged sword for the Bucks this season. On one hand, they still have the core of a championship team and Antetokounmpo and Lillard as their leaders with proven playoff experience — if they can stay healthy. But the perils of fielding a veteran roster mean the Bucks will have to manage the health of most of their key players — four of their projected starters will be at least 30 years old this season. — Collier
Bucks in NBA Rank:
Giannis Antetokounmpo (3)
Damian Lillard (23)
Khris Middleton (63)
Brook Lopez (93)
Number to watch: Dame and Giannis’ production
The duo scored 30 points apiece in the same eight games last season — most in a single season by a duo in Bucks history and second-highest scoring duo in the NBA overall. In the 1,756 minutes these two shared on the floor, the Bucks recorded a plus-10.2 net efficiency.
Best bet: Bobby Portis to win Sixth Man of the Year (+1800)
Portis is firmly established as the Bucks’ sixth man, and in fact has finished third in each of the past two award votes. Last year’s race was wide open, with new favorites rising and falling as the season went along. Portis’ numbers (13.8 PPG, 7.4 RPG) compared very favorably with those of winner Naz Reid (13.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG), so I think he has a significantly better chance than 18-1. — Snellings
Fantasy: Do draft … Brook Lopez
What am I missing here? Lopez was a top-50 option in points formats and 28th in roto/categories. It hardly matters how he gets those numbers, or how old he is. He keeps outperforming his ADP, and by a lot. If I could lead this list with him every season, I probably would. — Karabell
BPI’s overall ranking: 5
Chances to make playoffs: 96.3%
Projected wins: 47.5
When we last saw them: For the first time in 30 years, a Cavs team without LeBron James on the roster made it past the first round of the playoffs. After advancing past the Magic in seven games — with Donovan Mitchell exploding for 50 points in Game 6 — they lost to the eventual-champion Celtics in five games with Mitchell (calf) and Caris LeVert (knee) missing the end of the second-round series. It was an eventful offseason, with the team replacing coach J.B. Bickerstaff with Kenny Atkinson and Mitchell agreeing to a three-year, $150.3 million contract extension that will keep him in Cleveland through the 2028-29 season.
Biggest strength and weakness: Cleveland was eighth in the league in assists per game with 28.0 a night thanks to the playmaking ability of Mitchell, LeVert, Darius Garland and Max Strus. The crisp passing led to quality looks, too, with the Cavs ranking 12th in team field goal percentage at 47.9%. However, they were in the bottom half of the league in turnovers with 13.7 per game, a big part of why they were only 24th in field goal attempts per game (87.2). And if you don’t get shots up, you can’t register assists. — McMenamin
Cavaliers in NBA Rank:
Donovan Mitchell (17)
Evan Mobley (47)
Darius Garland (57)
Jarrett Allen (73)
Number to watch: On-court chemistry
Garland, Mitchell, Allen and Mobley played 28 games together and shared the floor for 392 minutes last season, but they outscored their opponents by only 27 points in that time.
Best bet: Mobley to win Most Improved Player (+1400)
Mobley is 23 years old, is in his fourth NBA season and seems primed for a leap. After finishing second in the Rookie of the Year vote, as a sophomore Mobley played 79 games and was named first-team All-Defense while finishing third in the Defensive Player of the Year vote. Last season, injuries kept Mobley out of 32 games and limited him in the games he did play. Even still, he notched career bests of 58.0% shooting (37.3% on 3s), 9.4 RPG and 3.2 APG. This season, fresh off him signing a five-year max rookie contract extension in the offseason, look for Mobley to get back to All-Defense level while edging up toward 20 PPG. That combo would put him firmly in the Most Improved Player race, at relatively long shot odds. — Snellings
Fantasy middle-rounds target: Jarrett Allen
The Cavaliers signed Allen to a three-year extension, making him a key part of their future. He brings an enchanting blend of points, rebounds and efficient shooting. Last season, he was one of only two players to average at least 15 PPG on 60% shooting. In fact, he’s one of just four players in the shot clock era to average 15 PPG, 10 RPG and 60% shooting in multiple seasons. Allen is one of my favorite centers to target in this range. — Moody
BPI’s overall ranking: 11
Chances to make playoffs: 69.3%
Projected wins: 44.4
When we last saw them: Murphy’s Law wreaked havoc on the Grizzlies last season. Everything that could go wrong in Memphis pretty much did, starting with Ja Morant‘s season-opening 25-game suspension and the continuous barrage of medical issues, including Morant’s season-ending shoulder injury. Coming off of three straight playoff appearances, including two 50-plus-win seasons, the Grizzlies limped to a 27-55 finish and a spot in the lottery. At No. 9, they drafted big man Zach Edey, who figures to have a major role in Memphis as a rookie.
Biggest strength and weakness: The homegrown trio of Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Desmond Bane has proved that the three are good enough to get home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. Memphis has made major renovations to the supporting cast since its last playoff berth in 2023, bringing in Marcus Smart and Edey to fill the roles formerly occupied by Dillon Brooks and Steven Adams. How impactful will 7-foot-4 Edey be as a rookie? That could determine Memphis’ ceiling this season, assuming the Grizzlies don’t have to endure so much medical misfortune. — MacMahon
Grizzlies in NBA Rank:
Ja Morant (20)
Jaren Jackson Jr. (55)
Desmond Bane (60)
Marcus Smart (83)
Number to watch: Injuries
Last season the Grizzlies could not stay healthy with 577 total player games missed due to injury, the most in the NBA. Memphis also had 33 players play at least one game, the most in a season for any team all-time and 51 different starting lineups. Bane, Smart and Morant shared only 130 minutes together, but were plus-22 when they were on the floor.
Best bet: Edey as Rookie of the Year (+300)
This award often goes to players on rebuilding teams who can command a high usage rate, allowing them to rack up stats. Just look at Victor Wembanyama last season and Paolo Banchero the year before — both won under similar circumstances. Edey finds himself in a great position with the Grizzlies this year. We project him to average 14.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG and 1.6 BPG. While these numbers might not be flashy, they should be enough for Edey to win the award. — Moody
Fantasy sleepers: Marcus Smart and Vince Williams Jr.
It’s rare that the fantasy market overlooks a former Defensive Player of the Year, but here we are. Smart’s 2023-24 season was plagued by injuries, so it’s understandable that he has slipped deeper into drafts. With enough passing chops to help run second units and some of the best defensive rates at his position, Smart could be a savvy late-round get. The unfortunate injury to GG Jackson II probably will lead to a massive role for Williams in Memphis to open the season. Word from the beat is that Williams could be among the team leaders in minutes. Last season’s eroded roster afforded Williams a real chance to grow as a playmaker and complementary scorer, roles he’ll probably revive even on a restocked Grizzlies rotation. — Jim McCormick
BPI’s overall ranking: 18
Chances to make playoffs: 69.0%
Projected wins: 41.1
When we last saw them: Indiana had a charmed season last year, breaking through to the conference finals for the first time in a decade after also reaching the championship game of the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament. The Pacers responded by locking in their core, inking in-season acquisition Pascal Siakam to a massive new contract, re-signing Obi Toppin, and extending the contracts of T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Pacers’ obvious strength is their blistering offense, thanks to All-Star guard Tyrese Haliburton. If Haliburton can get over the lower leg injuries that have hampered him throughout 2024, expect Indiana to once again have one of the league’s best offenses. Conversely, the Pacers are going to have to make improvements on defense to match last year’s achievements, and it’s hard to see who will come through there. Aaron Nesmith is the only above-average perimeter defender on the roster, adding pressure on center Myles Turner to clean up mistakes at the rim. — Bontemps
Pacers in NBA Rank:
Tyrese Haliburton (16)
Pascal Siakam (42)
Myles Turner (81)
Number to watch: Pacers’ passing
The Pacers had a historic offense in 2023-24, averaging 123.3 points, the most by any team in a season since the 1983-1984 Nuggets. They also averaged 30.8 assists in the regular season, the most by any team in a season since the Lakers in 1984-85. Indiana also led the NBA in passes per game and had the quickest average touch length as a team last season, per Second Spectrum.
Best bet: Haliburton over 10.5 assists per game (-130) and Haliburton assists per game leader (+200)
Through his first 31 games last season, including the in-season tournament, Haliburton was dishing 12.8 APG. After that, he injured his hamstring and was visibly not himself for the rest of the season. But after taking the time to get healthy this offseason, Haliburton could be off to the races to lead the league in assists for the second straight season. But more at the 12.8 APG pace he began last season with than the 10.9 APG he ended up averaging. — Snellings
Fantasy player to watch: Myles Turner
Turner became the Pacers’ leading career shot blocker last season and enters the season with 1,268 in his career. His 1.9 BPG last season ranked ninth in the league. But just because he’s a rim protector doesn’t mean he’s a big rebounder. In fact, the 6-11 center has never averaged more than 7.5 RPG in a season and is at just 6.8 RPG in his career. — Eric Moody
BPI’s overall ranking: 20
Chances to make playoffs: 46.9%
Projected wins: 38.7
When we last saw them: The Magic had a breakout season on their way to making the playoffs for the first time in three years. Despite losing in seven games to the Cavaliers, it was a major step for a young team built on defense under coach Jamahl Mosley. The team re-signed several core players (Wendell Carter Jr., Goga Bitadze, Moritz Wagner and Jonathan Isaac) but its biggest move was extending Franz Wagner to a five-year, $224 million max extension. That solidifies Orlando’s frontcourt with All-Star big man Paolo Banchero — who is primed to take another leap in his game.
Biggest strength and weakness: Orlando is the only team since 1999 that has recorded 45 or more wins with its top three scorers being 22 years old or younger — Banchero, Wagner and guard Jalen Suggs. But the Magic need to do better at taking care of the basketball. They ranked 24th in the league in turnovers last season with 14.7 per game, which led to 16.4 opponent points per game. That issue has carried over early on as they averaged 20.0 turnovers through the preseason. — Kendra Andrews
Magic in NBA Rank:
Paolo Banchero (24)
Franz Wagner (52)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (62)
Jalen Suggs (95)
Number to watch: Wagner’s shooting
Wagner shot 29.2% on jumpers in the regular season and playoffs last season, the worst in a season since 2013-14 by any player to take 400-plus attempts, per Second Spectrum. He also shot 28% on 3-pointers last season, the worst in the NBA among qualified players. That was down from 36% on 3-pointers in 2022-23.
Best bet: Magic to win Southeast Division (-140)
The Magic were in the lottery two seasons ago, but last season they improved by 13 games to win the Southeast Division by a game over the Heat. These same two teams are favored again this season, but while the Heat’s best player, Jimmy Butler, is moving toward the end of his career, Magic star Banchero is still very much on the rise in his third season. The Banchero-Wagner nucleus should continue to improve, which gives the Magic more upside than the Heat and helps their chances to win a second straight division title. — Snellings
Fantasy player to watch: Jonathan Isaac
True fantasy nerds remember Isaac’s wild 34-game showing in the 2019-20 season. Or maybe it’s just me who does. Either way, he posted simply absurd defensive rates reminiscent of a prime Andrei Kirilenko. Since then, injuries have kept Isaac from seeing the floor much, but we shouldn’t dismiss how well he played last spring and into the playoffs. Regularly topping 20 minutes in the series against the Cavaliers, Isaac’s all-world defensive upside was on display. It’s hard to buy that Isaac will ever return to heavy minutes, but there is still real sleeper status present if he can even just mimic his playoff role for Orlando this year. — McCormick
BPI’s overall ranking: 16
Chances to make playoffs: 47.0%
Projected wins: 41.8
When we last saw them: The Warriors are coming off of one of their longest offseasons in recent history after being eliminated by the Kings in the first round of the play-in tournament. Since then, the Warriors have lost one of their cornerstones in Klay Thompson and a veteran in Chris Paul. But they brought in Buddy Hield, De’Anthony Melton and Kyle Anderson, and they expect big leaps and increased work from fourth-year player Jonathan Kuminga and sophomores Brandin Podziemski and Trayce Jackson-Davis. Throughout camp, Golden State has boasted about its depth and feeling as if it has the players to start climbing back up in the West.
Biggest strength and weakness: If their preseason numbers mean anything, the Warriors should be one of the top 3-point shooting teams in the league. Through the preseason, they averaged a 38.2% 3-point percentage. Whether this level of shooting is sustainable in the regular season is up for debate, but Golden State will continue to emphasize shooting and a fast-paced offense. The Warriors are looking to work on their defense — particularly in transition. Last season, Golden State allowed the sixth-most points in transition per game, and the 1.17 points per possession the Warriors allowed in transition was the third most in the NBA. The Warriors were in the 17th percentile of transition defense and overall had the 15th-ranked defense in the NBA. With the current personnel, Golden State feels it has the players to climb the defensive ladder. — Andrews
Warriors in NBA Rank:
Stephen Curry (6)
Draymond Green (66)
Brandin Podziemski (78)
Andrew Wiggins (90)
Number to watch: Green’s availability
Last season, Green did not play in 27 games — with 21 of those missed games due to suspensions and being away from the team for disciplinary reasons — and was ejected in a career-high four games. In Green’s absence, the Warriors went 13-14 and allowed 119.1 points per game. In the 55 games Green played, they went 33-22 and allowed only 113.2 points per game.
Best bet: Curry top points scorer on Christmas Day (+1000)
NBA basketball on Christmas Day is a tradition like no other. With Klay Thompson gone, Curry remains the last Splash Brother standing. Even with him 36 years old, Golden State will rely on him heavily this season. He has averaged 32.0 PPG in his past six games against the Lakers and should deliver a vintage performance on the national stage at home. — Moody
Fantasy sleepers: Brandin Podziemski and De’Anthony Melton
“Air Podz” averaged 5.8 rebounds during his rookie season, which put Podziemski in the 98th percentile among NBA guards. In addition to atypical rebounding volume, Podziemski could erupt as a shooter and scorer in the wake of Thompson’s departure from the rotation. Offseason buzz suggests the team is ready to feature the second-year guard. Steve Kerr’s shot-happy system could bode well for Melton’s offensive profile, while the team is also likely to unleash him in the passing lanes on defense in a similar fashion to how Donte DiVincenzo and Gary Payton II thrived in this system. It’s quite possible, if not likely, that Melton will average more than two made 3-pointers and two combined blocks and steals in this fantasy-friendly setup. — Jim McCormick
BPI’s overall ranking: 14
Chances to make playoffs: 56.1%
Projected wins: 42.7
When we last saw them: For a second straight season, the Lakers were eliminated by the Nuggets in the postseason. Although the series went five games — a meager improvement from the sweep in 2023 — it came in the first round rather than the conference finals. With the team’s core roster cemented and trade options scarce, L.A. pulled the lever that franchises so often do when stuck in similar predicaments: It fired its coach, Darvin Ham. “You can’t buy a house that’s not for sale,” said Lakers vice president of basketball operations and general manager Rob Pelinka. First-year coach JJ Redick replaced him, and the Lakers are banking on the idea that a coaching adjustment, combined with a little more luck in the health department, can be enough to turn the team back into a contender around LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Biggest strength and weakness: On offense, the Lakers have a potent starting five. James, Davis, Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura and D’Angelo Russell played 389 minutes together last season and had a 116.0 offensive efficiency, according to ESPN Research. That ranked 10th among 21 five-man lineups to play 300-plus minutes together last season. However, that same group allowed 1.36 points per possession in transition — which was 19th among 20 five-man lineups to defend 100-plus transition possessions. “We were horrific in transition defense,” James said during training camp. “We got to be a lot better than that. We were pretty good in half-court. But we got to get our asses back.” — McMenamin
Lakers in NBA Rank:
LeBron James (7)
Anthony Davis (13)
Austin Reaves (72)
Number to watch: James and Davis’ time on the floor together
James played in 71 games last season, the most since 2017-18, and Davis played in a career-high 76 games. They played in 66 games together, their most together since Davis joined the Lakers in 2019-20.
Best bet: Under 42.5 regular-season wins (-115)
The Lakers are counting on a new coaching staff to turn things around after winning last year’s in-season tournament but falling short in the playoffs. Redick, with no prior coaching experience, impressed the front office, but the real concern is LeBron James’ and Davis’ health. Without them, the team has struggled — 50-72 without James, 55-64 without Davis. Without a third star, it’s tough to see them finishing with 43 wins in the competitive West. — Moody
Fantasy rookie to watch: Dalton Knecht
Knecht is mature for a college player and has the type of shooter/scorer instant-offense skill set the Lakers need. It isn’t clear whether he’ll start the season in the main rotation, but he did get 34 minutes in his preseason debut and scored 13 points, with eight boards and four assists. Once he finds his level and gets his minutes, the No. 17 pick out of Tennessee has the game to produce immediately at the pro level. — Snellings
BPI’s overall ranking: 12
Chances to make playoffs: 52.5%
Projected wins: 42.5
When we last saw them: New Orleans’ first playoff appearance since 2022 ended swiftly in a four-game sweep by the Thunder with Zion Williamson out with an injury after playing a career-high 70 games during the regular season. The team addressed a glaring weakness in the offseason by trading for point guard Dejounte Murray, a strong two-way performer who will provide vocal leadership but also, most importantly, a playmaker and facilitator to improve New Orleans’ execution down the stretch of close games. The trade depleted some depth, but the Pels now have three former All-Stars on the roster in Murray, Williamson and Brandon Ingram.
Biggest strength and weakness: Murray was an off-ball guard with Atlanta, but he’ll return to the role of traditional point guard with added emphasis on defense. It bodes well for a player who made the 2018 All-Defensive team and led the league in steals in 2022. The Pelicans’ starting five already features a first-team All-Defensive player in Herbert Jones and another promising 3-and-D wing in Trey Murphy III. The center position will be a major problem area this season for the Pels. At 6-7, Jones shouldn’t be playing center. But he’s currently slated to start there with the team having lost Jonas Valanciunas in free agency. — Michael Wright
Pelicans in NBA Rank:
Zion Williamson (27)
Brandon Ingram (40)
Dejounte Murray (43)
CJ McCollum (84)
Herbert Jones (97)
Number to watch: Rim protection
The Pelicans finished sixth in defensive efficiency last season but ranked 23rd in field goal percentage allowed at the rim. That comes after New Orleans was bottom two in rim protection in the three prior seasons.
Best bet: Willie Green to win Coach of the Year (+1600)
Green enters his fourth season with the Pelicans under high expectations. He had to overcome injuries to key players such as Williamson and Ingram, but Green still led New Orleans to three consecutive winning seasons. The Pelicans continue to be positioned for success with the addition of Murray and a focus on defense. Green’s composed demeanor rarely draws attention from the media. However, the Pelicans’ record could catch the attention of voters since the three most recent winners of the award have been first-timers. — Moody
Fantasy sleeper: Trey Murphy III
Already one of the league’s most efficient wing scorers through just three pro campaigns, Murphy has posted a blistering 63.3% true shooting clip since the start of the 2022-23 season. Last season was abbreviated as he recovered from surgery, but Murphy enters this season healthy and primed to leap to a new tier of 3-and-D production. In addition to floor-spacing value, Murphy sustains a strong steal clip. In his 23 starts for the Pelicans last season, Murphy averaged 8.3 3-point attempts per game en route to more than16 PPG, suggesting he is already an elite specialist in the Klay Thompson mold. With an ADP well past 100, Murphy is an ideal middle-rounds selection this fall. — Jim McCormick
BPI’s overall ranking: 15
Chances to make playoffs: 54.1%
Projected wins: 42.5
When we last saw them: One year after making the playoffs for the first time in 16 years, the Kings got bounced in the second round of the play-in. After that loss, Sacramento knew it needed to make some changes, so the team brought in DeMar DeRozan and sent Harrison Barnes to San Antonio and Chris Duarte to Chicago. This was the first big move the Kings have made since bringing in Mike Brown as head coach. While they don’t think they took steps back last season, they know they have to regain the momentum they had in 2023 in a highly competitive Western Conference.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Kings are primed to have a high-powered offense. DeRozan gives the team another player who can score 25 points a night and perform in the clutch, while taking some pressure off of De’Aaron Fox. Putting DeRozan next to Domantas Sabonis will allow them to continue to use dribble handoffs, deploy pick-and-rolls and score in transition — several big parts of their offense the past two seasons, which they hope will help integrate DeRozan. One weakness Sacramento is facing is its lack of size. The Kings have struggled against longer and bigger teams, and they didn’t address that over the offseason. If they plan to play players such as DeRozan or Kevin Huerter at small forward, they will have to rely even more heavily on their offense to just outscore their opponent. — Andrews
Kings in NBA Rank:
De’Aaron Fox (26)
Domantas Sabonis (29)
DeMar DeRozan (45)
Malik Monk (65)
Keegan Murray (94)
Number to watch: Late-game performances
Sacramento got one of the best players in late-game situations to play alongside Fox. DeRozan led the NBA in total fourth-quarter points last season, while Fox ranked second. This is the first time the top two scorers in total fourth-quarter points from the previous season have been on the same team since play-by-play was first tracked in 1996-97.
Best bet: Sabonis as rebounds per game leader (+195).
Sabonis led the NBA last season with 13.7 RPG while averaging 35.7 minutes per game. He’s projected for similar numbers this season. It should also be noted that the Kings are emphasizing offensive rebounding after ranking middle of the pack last year. Sabonis’ durability makes this bet even more appealing. He played all 82 games last season and 79 the year before, further positioning him to cash in as the rebounds leader again. — Moody
Fantasy: Do not draft … Domantas Sabonis
Sabonis is a walking triple-double threat every time he steps on the court. However, I like my big men — especially those I take early in my drafts — to block shots, steal the ball and maybe even hit some 3-pointers. While Sabonis checks the boxes in points, rebounds and assists, he shot only 70.4% from the line last season and added a paltry helping of steals (0.9), blocks (0.6) and 3-pointers (0.4) to his stat line. In my opinion, your early-round picks need to rack up steals, blocks and 3-pointers, and when you add in the hazy free throw shooting, I just can’t do it anymore. And then when you add in the arrival of DeRozan to the Kings, things start to get really dicey. — Karabell
BPI’s overall ranking: 9
Chances to make playoffs: 90.2%
Projected wins: 44.9
When we last saw them: After a surprise trip to the Finals without guard Tyler Herro in 2023, the Heat fizzled out of the first round last season. With Jimmy Butler sidelined with a sprained right MCL he suffered in the play-in tournament and trade deadline acquisition Terry Rozier out with neck spasms, Miami lost to the eventual-champion Boston Celtics in five games. The Heat looked into trading for Utah Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen, but the former All-Star wound up extending his contract to stay in Salt Lake City. So, one of the most stable franchises in the league is heading into the season with a nearly identical roster — veteran guard Alec Burks was Miami’s most notable addition — and is banking on improved health, along with another strong campaign from gold medalist and All-Star center Bam Adebayo, to creep back into contention.
Biggest strength and weakness: Anchored by a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Adebayo, the Heat posted the fifth-best defensive efficiency in the league last season, allowing only 111.5 points per 100 possessions. But while they made the opposition grind it out, their offense was so inept it made the other team’s defense look just as effective. Miami was 21st in offensive efficiency, scoring 113.3 points per 100 possessions. — McMenamin
Heat in NBA Rank:
Bam Adebayo (18)
Jimmy Butler (28)
Tyler Herro (76)
Jaime Jaquez Jr. (86)
Number to watch: Fourth-quarter offense
Last season, they ranked 28th in fourth-quarter offensive efficiency and 29th in fourth-quarter net efficiency. Although they had a 22-20 record in clutch time, the Heat ranked bottom five in clutch-time offensive efficiency.
Best bet: Adebayo to win Defensive Player of the Year (+1000)
Adebayo has finished top five in the Defensive Player of the Year vote for five straight seasons, culminating in last season’s third-place finish and spot on the All-Defense first team. Adebayo is just entering his prime-peak years at age 27 and will be the defensive anchor for what could be an improved Heat team this season. If they can remain largely healthy, with sophomore Jaquez taking a step forward, this is arguably the most talented Miami squad in years. Another strong Adebayo defensive effort, on a potential winning team, would give him better than the stated 10-1 odds to finally win the award. –– Snellings
Fantasy rookie to watch: Kel’el Ware
Ware was one of the most impressive rookies at the Las Vegas summer league, earning NBA 2K25 All Summer League first-team honors. He was strong in his preseason debut as well, scoring 13 points with 5 rebounds and 4 blocked shots in only 17 minutes. Ware, the No. 15 pick out of Indiana, looks to start the season backing up Adebayo at center, but Adebayo might have the versatility to play some at the 4 if Ware plays well enough that the Heat feel he needs the minutes. — Snellings
BPI’s overall ranking: 13
Chances to make playoffs: 49.6%
Projected wins: 42.1
When we last saw them: In Year 1 under coach Ime Udoka, Houston lifted off to a record of 13-2 in March, leaving many to believe it might challenge for a play-in berth. Over that span, Jalen Green caught fire, averaging 27.7 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.9 assists. The Rockets finished 41-41, a 19-win improvement from the previous season, which represented the largest increase in wins by any team from 2022-23 to 2023-24. Houston stood relatively pat in the offseason but used its No. 3 pick on sharpshooting Reed Sheppard, who can seriously contend for Rookie of the Year.
Biggest strength and weakness: Houston’s collection of young talent could set up the Rockets to contend for a while if players such as Green, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson and Tari Eason continue to develop. The club pieced together a nice blend of up-and-coming players and solid veterans to take the lead in establishing the new culture under Udoka, which starts with a strong defense that ranked ninth last season. However, the Rockets ranked 20th on offense, so players such as Smith, Thompson and Eason need to take another step in their offensive development, as well as more consistency from Green. — Wright
Rockets in NBA Rank:
Alperen Sengun (54)
Jalen Green (69)
Fred VanVleet (79)
Jabari Smith Jr. (92)
Number to watch: Continuity on defense
The Rockets finished 10th in defensive efficiency last season and eighth in rim protection and allowed the fewest fast-break points per game last season.
Best bet: Over 43.5 regular-season wins (-115)
The Rockets don’t rely on just one player, which makes this bet intriguing. With seven former first-round picks and a defense that finished 10th in defensive rating last season, the talent is there. Houston won 41 games last year, so adding three more isn’t a stretch. Yes, the Western Conference is stacked, and some players are still trying to figure out their roles, but I believe Udoka can further position this team for success. — Moody
Fantasy breakout candidate: Jalen Green
Green was the No. 2 pick in the 2021 NBA draft and has proved to be a plus scorer, but he has had trouble with consistency. When Udoka took over as the head coach, he particularly wanted to institute a level of professionalism that required Green to improve to earn his minutes and opportunity. After a slower start to the season, Green burst out to average 29.2 PPG from Feb. 29 to March 29 as the Rockets made a hard playoff push. I like that as a preview for what we might expect from him more consistently this season. –– Snellings
BPI’s overall ranking: 17
Chances to make playoffs: 51.5%
Projected wins: 42.4
When we last saw them: The Clippers surprisingly went out with little fight in the second half of their Game 6 loss to the Mavericks in the first round of last season’s playoffs. Paul George and James Harden combined to go 2-for-16 from 3 while Kawhi Leonard watched from the bench with inflammation in his knee. It would be George’s final game as a Clipper, signaling the franchise’s pivot from contending for a title now to trying to remain competitive until it can land another younger star in the future. The Clippers re-signed Harden but did go younger, targeting scrappy defensive-minded players such as Derrick Jones Jr. in free agency. And now with Leonard sidelined indefinitely this season as he rehabilitates inflammation in his knee, the Clippers’ postseason hopes remain fuzzy.
Biggest strength and weakness: The Clippers’ defense will be a strength and keep them competitive in games. Besides acquiring defenders such as Jones, Nic Batum and Kris Dunn in free agency, their biggest addition this offseason was defensive coordinator Jeff Van Gundy. On the other side of the ball, with George gone and Leonard sidelined indefinitely, Harden will be asked to shoulder much of the offensive load, especially on the playmaking side in setting up teammates such as Ivica Zubac. Besides Harden and Zubac, the Clippers don’t have much depth outside of Norman Powell and Kevin Porter Jr. — Youngmisuk
Clippers in NBA Rank:
Kawhi Leonard (22)
James Harden (41)
Number to watch: 3-point shooting
The Clippers made only 180 catch-and-shoot 3-pointers last season — tied with the Mavericks for fewest in the NBA.
Best bet: Harden as assists per game leader (+900)
Despite Harden’s statistical woes last season, he has averaged 9.7 assists per game since 2021-22. The only other players we have projected for more APG than Harden (8.9) are Nikola Jokic (9.2), Luka Doncic (9.3), Trae Young (10.7) and Tyrese Haliburton (11.5). With George and Russell Westbrook gone — and Leonard out indefinitely with a knee issue — Harden will see a significant increase in his usage rate. — Moody
Fantasy: Do draft … James Harden
George’s departure from the Clippers is a big deal for Harden’s usage. He averaged “only” 16.6 PPG and 8.5 APG last season, his first for the Clippers, but it would hardly be a surprise if he bounced back to a 20-and-10 level, especially with Leonard out indefinitely due to injury. Last season, I wanted no part of Harden in fantasy, as he was going late in the first round of so many drafts, but he is an absolute steal as a fourth- or fifth-round selection. — Karabell
BPI’s overall ranking: 28 When we last saw them: No. 1 pick and unanimous 2023-24 Rookie of the Year Victor Wembanyama provided one of the few bright spots for a team that won three of its first five games before enduring the longest losing streak (18 games) in franchise history from Nov. 5 to Dec. 13. This summer, San Antonio added leadership, and the legitimate starter-level point guard Wembanyama needed by signing future Hall of Famer Chris Paul, in addition to bringing in veteran and former champion Harrison Barnes. The Spurs drafted Paul’s eventual successor, Stephon Castle, with the No. 4 pick in June’s draft. Biggest strength and weakness: Wembanyama provides elite rim protection, finishing with 254 blocks, which ranked as the most in a season since 2015-16 (Hassan Whiteside). Wembanyama erases mistakes and allows San Antonio’s perimeter defenders to take chances. Still, collective improvement on defense has been a point of emphasis for the Spurs throughout training camp and the preseason. The team also needs to find more consistent outside shooting. San Antonio set a franchise record last season for 3-pointers made (1,036), but that ranked just 16th in the NBA. — Wright Spurs in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Wembanyama’s rim protection Best bet: Wembanyama to record 1+ blocks in every regular-season game; minimum 40 games played (+2000) Potential fantasy bust: Keldon Johnson BPI’s overall ranking: 22 When we last saw them: The play-in round had been kind to Atlanta in 2022 and 2023, with the Hawks advancing from that stage to reach the playoffs each time. But the third time was anything but a charm last season. The Hawks faltered defensively — as was the case often for last season’s 27th-ranked defense — by allowing Coby White to drop 42 points and the Bulls to put up a whopping 131 points to end Atlanta’s season, and force the sub-.500 Hawks back to the drawing board, including trading guard Dejounte Murray to the Pelicans in late June. Biggest strength and weakness: With Murray gone, All-Star guard Trae Young can go back to running the show on his own, which comes more naturally for the 26-year-old floor general. He never evolved into someone who moved all that well off the ball, so allowing Young to do more of what he does best — returning to a usage rate closer to 35% — is a safer bet in some ways and could lift the offense. With Jalen Johnson back healthy, and players such as Dyson Daniels and Larry Nance Jr. in the fold, Atlanta should take a much-needed step forward defensively this year. But even if players such as No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher help on that end — the 6-9 forward French forward should, given his length and wingspan — the Hawks are still likely to finish in the bottom half of the league on defense, if not in the bottom 10 once again. — Chris Herring Hawks in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Overall defensive improvement Best bet: Johnson to win Most Improved Player (+1200) Fantasy breakout candidate: Jalen Johnson BPI’s overall ranking: 21 When we last saw them: After years of stagnation and back-to-back losses in the play-in tournament, the Bulls finally decided to shake up their roster this summer, looking toward the future by making a few moves to get younger. They acquired Josh Giddey from Oklahoma City to lead their offense and pair with Coby White and Patrick Williams as part of a young core, although Zach LaVine and Nikola Vucevic and Lonzo Ball still remain as holdovers. Biggest strength and weakness: Chicago has started each of the past three seasons saying it plans to play fast, but it might finally have the personnel to start doing so. Giddey should help ignite the Bulls’ fast-break offense, and they envision him creating passing advantages for his teammates similar to what Ball did in his first year in Chicago. Defense is where the Bulls will struggle. None of their five starters is an above-average defender, though the team hopes Williams can step into that role for them. — Collier Bulls in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Assisted offense. Best bet: Bulls under 28.5 wins (-125) Fantasy rookie to watch: Matas Buzelis BPI’s overall ranking: 25 When we last saw them: The Raptors finally turned the page on their 2019 NBA title-winning team by moving on from OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam. This is now Scottie Barnes’ team. The third-year forward was one of two players — along with Giannis Antetokounmpo — to average at least 19 points, 8 rebounds, 6 assists, a steal and a block last season, and he made his first All-Star team as a result. Arriving in the midseason trade that sent Anunoby to the Knicks, Immanuel Quickley was given a five-year, $175 million deal. Toronto also grabbed a pair of intriguing prospects in the draft in Ja’Kobe Walter and Jonathan Mogbo. Most importantly, though, the Raptors committed a five-year max extension to Barnes, officially making him the face of the next generation of the franchise. Biggest strength and weakness: The Raptors are in the middle of a rebuild, but as a result have a lot of young, athletic players at the disposal of coach Darko Rajakovic and should be able to push the tempo as a result. They’ll also likely need to do so, as this team is not exactly equipped to fire away from beyond the arc with a lot of success. Points in transition and off turnovers will certainly be needed to make up the difference after the Raptors were tied for 26th in 3s made last year. — Bontemps Raptors in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Pace Best bet: Barnes to win Most Improved Player (+2500) Fantasy breakout candidate: RJ Barrett BPI’s overall ranking: 23 When we last saw them: Charlotte walked off the floor victorious in its final game last season; even if the win did come under odd, tanktastic circumstances. (The Cavs, apparently seeking to draw Orlando in the first round as opposed to the Sixers or Heat, sat their best players and even played three centers simultaneously in the closing stages of the game.) It was a relatively meaningless game for the Hornets, though, which was the problem: Charlotte, a franchise snakebitten for years, hasn’t won enough to make the end of the season matter. Biggest strength and weakness: Win or lose, Charlotte figures to get a look at second-year wing Brandon Miller‘s progression. From February through April last season, he averaged nearly 20 points, 5 rebounds and 2.5 assists on 45% shooting and 37% from deep — potentially the makings of a franchise player. Injuries haven’t helped Charlotte escape the league’s basement. LaMelo Ball‘s health seems like a constant question. Center Mark Williams‘, too. The Hornets have ranked among the league’s top 10 in salary paid to injured players in each of the past two seasons, according to Spotrac. Adding to the uncertainty in Charlotte are new coach Charles Lee and new executive vice president of basketball operations Jeff Peterson. There aren’t immediate expectations to win in place, but the club needs a good enough run of health to make a proper evaluation. — Herring Hornets in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Overall improvements on offense. Best bet: Ball 3-pointers made per game leader (+3300) Fantasy: Do not draft … LaMelo Ball BPI’s overall ranking: 26 When we last saw them: For the second straight season, the Jazz were competitive through 50 games and took a turn south after unloading veterans at the trade deadline. The anticipation is that the 2024-25 campaign will take the route of a traditional rebuilding season in Salt Lake City. Utah made a massive commitment to Lauri Markkanen as a building block, signing the 27-year-old forward to a maximum extension worth $238 million over five years — making him ineligible to be traded this season. He’s an exception on a roster that has undergone a youth movement, featuring seven players 23 or younger who are rotation candidates. Biggest strength and weakness: Jazz fans are likely to spend the season frequently checking the lottery standings in hopes of landing an early pick in a loaded draft class. Meanwhile, there are two major questions to monitor: Which veterans could be valuable as trade offerings as the deadline nears? And which young players will provide reasons to believe they can be part of the Jazz’s core as the rebuilding project pays dividends down the road? — MacMahon Jazz in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Perimeter protection and turnovers. Best bet: Jordan Clarkson to win Sixth Man of the Year (+2000) Fantasy sleepers: Keyonte George and Taylor Hendricks BPI’s overall ranking: 29 When we last saw them: Last season the Pistons set an NBA record with 28 consecutive losses en route to finishing with the worst record in the league for a second straight season. In an effort to incite change, the Pistons fired team president Troy Weaver and coach Monty Williams in the offseason. They then named Trajan Langdon as president of basketball operations and hired J.B. Bickerstaff as head coach. In an effort to add more shooting, Detroit also signed forward Tobias Harris to play alongside Cade Cunningham. Biggest strength and weakness: The Pistons’ frontcourt should see an improvement with Harris joining Isaiah Stewart, Jalen Duren and Paul Reed — an effective rotation no matter who’s on the court. The biggest question for Detroit will be around how its combination of young players plays alongside that core as well as whether the team can get some improved shooting from Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson and its latest lottery pick, Ron Holland. The Pistons were last in the NBA last season in made 3-pointers. — Collier Pistons in NBA Rank: Number to watch: 3-point efficiency. Best bet: Cunningham to win Most Improved Player (+2500) Potential fantasy bust: Tobias Harris BPI’s overall ranking: 27 When we last saw them: Brooklyn’s season mercifully ended on the final night of the regular season with a 21-point loss in Philadelphia, which then led a summer defined by a series of moves to rebuild for the future. Even then, the team was already in a state of flux, with interim coach Kevin Ollie having replaced Jacque Vaughn to close out the campaign. In July, the Nets traded Mikal Bridges to the Knicks for five future first-round draft picks, as well as getting back their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks from Houston. Biggest strength and weakness: With their 2025 and 2026 first-round picks back in their control, there will be some sort of light at the end of the tunnel. That includes being in the mix for next year’s No. 1 pick for what will be a strong draft class, headlined by Duke freshman Cooper Flagg. As for how things will go on the court, the team will lack identity for a while as it enters a transitional season with an expiring Ben Simmons contract and a new coach in Jordi Fernandez. Perhaps that was to be expected. After all, it didn’t have much of one last season. — Herring Nets in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Cam Thomas‘ continued improvement. Best bet: Nic Claxton as blocks per game leader (+4000) Claxton has finished second and sixth in blocked shots over the past two seasons while playing less than 30 minutes per game in each. Thomas is only 25 years old, and although Victor Wembanyama is a worthy favorite to lead the league in blocks, 40-1 odds is good long shot value for a player with Claxton’s history. And if he ramps up his minutes, he has three blocks per game upside. — Snellings Fantasy sleeper: Cam Thomas BPI’s overall ranking: 24 When we last saw them: The Trail Blazers dropped 15 of their last 17 games in the first season without Damian Lillard as a rash of injuries wiped out the availability of several key players at different times. Robert Williams III sat out 76 games; Malcolm Brogdon missed 43; and Jerami Grant and Deandre Ayton combined for a total of 55 scratches. Scoot Henderson struggled with his rookie transition into the league, a process likely made tougher by backcourt mates Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe missing a combined 86 contests. In all, 18 players started at least one game last season for Portland. Biggest strength and weakness: The Blazers boast young, intriguing talent in Henderson, Sharpe, Simons and new addition Deni Avdija, along with tremendous depth at center in Ayton, Williams, Duop Reath and lottery pick Donovan Clingan. Portland could wind up trading one of the veteran bigs later in the season to one of a handful of teams around the league looking for a center. Portland’s youth is a strength in its ongoing rebuild, but it’s also a weakness due to inexperience. Injuries are already creeping in again, too, as Sharpe will be sidelined at the start of the season due to a left labral tear. — Wright Trail Blazers in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Henderson’s rim protection. Best bet: Simons to win Most Improved Player (+5000) Fantasy sleeper: Scoot Henderson BPI’s overall ranking: 30 When we last saw them: The Wizards ended on a six-game losing streak to round out a dismal season. Washington’s 15-67 regular season record, however, helped it land the second overall pick in the NBA draft lottery, and it used that pick to draft French 7-footer Alex Sarr. But the Wizards are still a very long way from Michael Winger’s and Will Dawkins’ vision. Washington did trade Deni Avdija in a deal that landed rookie Bub Carrington, the 14th overall pick in this year’s draft; Malcolm Brogdon; a 2029 first-round pick; and two future second-round picks. The Wizards also traded up a couple of spots to No. 24 to draft Kyshawn George and signed Jonas Valanciunas to bolster the front line. Biggest strength and weakness: While most eyes will be on No. 2 pick Sarr, the Wizards are high on the potential of last year’s seventh overall pick, Bilal Coulibaly. The 20-year-old guard was ahead of schedule last season, averaging 8.4 points and 4.1 rebounds while also showing potential on defense. But while Coulibaly and other prospects such as Carrington should have plenty of runway this season to develop, that likely means another long season in Washington. By the trade deadline, the Wizards could be garnering interest from other teams in vets such as Kyle Kuzma, Valanciunas, Corey Kispert and Brogdon (currently out after thumb surgery). — Youngmisuk Wizards in NBA Rank: Number to watch: Jordan Poole at point guard. Best bet: Sarr to win Rookie of the Year (+900) Fantasy rookie to watch: Alex Sarr ESPN Research’s Matt Williams contributed to this story.
Chances to make playoffs: 1.0%
Projected wins: 31.0
Victor Wembanyama (11)
Chris Paul (99)
Wembanyama led the league last season with 3.6 blocks per game, over a block more than any other player. He also recorded a 10-block triple-double and finished with 254 blocks, becoming the sixth rookie to reach 250-plus blocks since the stat became official in 1973-74
This year, we project Wemby to lead the league with 4.3 BPG in 33.4 MPG. With those numbers in mind, this bet feels worth putting a few units on. — Moody
Not that he’s some exciting pick, but with Johnson going just past 100 overall in average draft position, he’s going to be relied on in fantasy frontcourts to really contribute. The holdup in trusting Johnson is that, in a rare case, he saw fewer minutes, touches and shots last season after a breakout 2022-23 effort. It’s looking more as if his scoring spike in his fourth season was part of pacing a lottery-bound team in offensive opportunities. The Spurs’ rotation is now much, much different, with gifted young players mixing with proven late-career vets in a new-look Gregg Popovich concoction centered around Wembanyama. Johnson is unlikely to start or find a truly specialized role for San Antonio, instead shifting to a complementary role that extinguishes any momentum left from his days as a bankable scoring source. Without very loud defensive rates and with subpar rebounding percentages for a forward, I’d rather let a competitor take Johnson’s low-ceiling profile. — McCormick
Chances to make playoffs: 34.1%
Projected wins: 36.9
Trae Young (37)
The Hawks allowed at least 145 points in six games last season — the most in a season by any team since the Nuggets in 1990-91. They ranked 27th in defensive efficiency, 24th in defense against on-ball screens, 29th in transition defense and 25th in rim protection.
Johnson took a huge leap last season, from a 15-minute-per game sophomore who averaged 5.6 PPG to a full-time starter averaging 16.0 PPG and 8.7 RPG in his third season. Often, the winner of the Most Improved Player has that type of leap the season before he wins, then makes another leap from solid numbers to nearly All-Star level in the season he does win. Johnson has the ability to do that. He has legitimate 20-10-5 upside this season, and with Murray gone, he should get more usage and opportunity to post those types of numbers. And if he does, he’ll be a front-runner for MIP. — Snellings
We might have been heading toward a breakout season for Johnson last year, but a weak foul from Kyle Kuzma ruined that dream. Johnson played just 56 games due in part to a right ankle sprain, as well as a left wrist injury, thanks to a Kuzma block attempt. Murray is gone, and now Johnson, along with Young, will be asked to do most of the heavy lifting in Atlanta. Hopefully, Johnson can stay healthy. He’ll enter the season at just 22 years old and will turn 23 in December. — Steve Alexander
Chances to make playoffs: 43.5%
Projected wins: 38.2
Coby White (58)
Zach LaVine (74)
Last season, Oklahoma City shot 54% directly off Giddey’s passes, second best among players with 500-plus assist opportunities, per Second Spectrum. He trailed only LeBron James. Last season, the Bulls ranked 28th in effective field goal percentage when shooting directly off a pass, and they will look to use Giddy to improve this area on offense.
The Bulls are a team in limbo, stuck between where they’ve been the past couple of seasons — a 39-to-40-win play-in team — and the full rebuild that seems to be on the horizon. They lost veterans DeMar DeRozan and Alex Caruso this offseason, bringing in young players such as Giddey and draft pick Matas Buzelis and re-signing Williams to join White as part of the new core. Veterans LaVine and Vucevic are still on the team, but trade rumors continue to swirl, and Ball is making his way back from injury. The team currently has the talent to win more than 28 games, but fit and focus suggest to me that Chicago will start to lose, trade its vets and come in under the mark. Also of note, the Bulls owe the Spurs a top-10-protected 2025 draft pick, so it might behoove them to lose enough games to not convey the pick. — Snellings
Buzelis was a buzzy pick for the Bulls in this year’s lottery, and though his scoring efficiency was down, he had some very impressive moments during the Las Vegas summer league. Buzelis is likely to come off the bench for the Bulls as constructed, but this is also a team in rebuild mode, so I could see him earning minutes sooner than later. — Snellings
Chances to make playoffs: 13.9%
Projected wins: 33.9
Scottie Barnes (35)
RJ Barrett (53)
Immanuel Quickley (64)
The Raptors led the NBA in fast-break points per game last season. They also ranked seventh in points per possession in transition and second in transition possessions per game, according to Second Spectrum.
The Most Improved Player award, in recent seasons, has typically gone to a player in his early-to-mid-20s with three or four seasons under his belt who starts making the star-leap the season before he actually wins the award. Barnes fits that description to a T, entering his fourth season at age 23. Barnes also started breaking out last season, increasing his numbers across the board while earning his first All-Star nod. With the Raptors having traded away Siakam and Anunoby, Barnes is the franchise’s unquestioned centerpiece and will have the opportunity to put up superstar numbers this season. — Snellings
Barrett thrived after being traded to Toronto, especially in terms of his efficiency. In 32 games with the Raptors, he averaged 21.8 PPG, 6.4 RPG and 4.1 APG while shooting an impressive 55.3% from the field. He played some of the best basketball of his career. As a reminder, he was drafted third overall by the Knicks in 2019. Now the stage is set for Barrett to have the best season of his career. If he can maintain those averages for a full season, Barrett could find himself in the running for the Most Improved Player award. — Moody
Chances to make playoffs: 33.8%
Projected wins: 37.0
LaMelo Ball (50)
Brandon Miller (68)
Accounting for the plethora of injuries, the Hornets finished 28th in offensive efficiency last season and struggled to create easy points. They ranked last in free throw attempt rate and bottom five in offensive rebounding percentage and points per possession in transition.
The past three leaders in 3-pointers per game have made 4.8, 4.4 and 4.5 treys per game. Two seasons ago, in an injury-shortened campaign, Ball averaged 4.0. He has the ultimate green light for the Hornets, and this season he has teammates who should draw enough defensive attention to let him get plenty of good looks. Odds of 33-1 are a lot of juice for a player who has already shown he can make 3-pointers at high enough volume to be in the hunt. — Snellings
Hate to make it all about missing games, but this really does matter. Ball is a wonderful player, only 23 years old, but recurring ankle injuries have permitted him only 58 games the past two seasons combined. Until he proves some semblance of durability, this is a Mike Trout situation in which the name gets drafted because, well, who doesn’t love LaMelo Ball? Well, fantasy managers desperate for assists filling in for long stretches with Mike Conley and Tre Jones should pivot to safer point guards in the early rounds. — Karabell
Chances to make playoffs: 2.7%
Projected wins: 33.1
Lauri Markkanen (33)
The Jazz ranked last in defensive efficiency last season while also allowing a 39.5% 3-point field goal percentage from opponents — the worst by any team in a season since the 2010-11 Cavaliers. The Jazz ranked last in turnover percentage and 29th in points per game allowed off turnovers. That led to Utah defending 18.2 transition possessions per game last season, the most by any team in a season since player tracking began in 2013-14.
Clarkson took home the award in 2021 and has averaged 19.1 PPG, 3.7 RPG and 4.7 APG over the past two seasons. With a projected 30.9 MPG, he’s expected to play a key role in the Jazz’s rotation. While injuries are a concern, placing a few units on Clarkson as a long shot might not be a bad idea. — Moody
Given how many high-usage, heliocentric stars we can identify in the league, sourcing assists in later rounds can prove challenging. Assisting nearly a quarter of all made field goals for the Jazz while on the court as a rookie, George’s precedent for playmaking suggests a potential breakout could unfold in Utah this fall. Beyond his pick-and-roll prowess, George averaged nearly 15 points on respectable volume from deep as a rookie. Another Jazz rookie from last season, Hendricks flashed impressive defensive and positional versatility for the team. With tons of minutes at the wing available in Salt Lake City, Hendricks is almost sure to outproduce his draft price. — McCormick
Chances to make playoffs: 2.1%
Projected wins: 29.3
Cade Cunningham (67)
The Pistons shot 34% on 3-pointers off passes directly from Cade Cunningham last season. That ranked last among 32 players to record at least 400 assist opportunities on 3-pointers in 2023-24, per Second Spectrum.
Cunningham made an in-season leap as a scorer last season, from 21.9 PPG before the All-Star break to 24.5 PPG after. If he maintains or improves that scoring level this season, he could continue the tradition of MIP in a first All Star campaign. And the 25-1 odds make him an intriguing long shot futures candidate. — Snellings
Harris is a professional scorer who could, in theory, have a larger role with the Pistons than he has had with the 76ers over the past several seasons. The problem is, Harris doesn’t fit the rest of Detroit’s rebuilding aesthetic. The other four Pistons starters are 22, 22, 21 and 20 years old. Harris is 32, and he looks to be backed up by 19-year-old Ron Holland II, whom the Pistons drafted at No. 5 this season. I see a likelihood that Harris’ minutes could be crunched on a team whose best interests would be to let their young future stars eat. — Snellings
Chances to make playoffs: 12.6%
Projected wins: 33.5
None
Thomas increased his scoring average by 11.9 points per game from 2022-23 to 2023-24, the largest increase in the NBA among players to play 50-plus games in each season. However, the challenge lies in his isolation offense. Thomas averaged 0.88 points per direct isolation last season, ranking 39th out of 40 players to run 300-plus isos, per Second Spectrum.
He’s been going around pick No. 90 in ESPN leagues and helped me win a 30-team league last season. He won’t come nearly as cheap as he did a year ago, but the Nets are a bad team and Thomas should get all the minutes and shots he can handle. I’m not really worried about a tanking shutdown since he’ll be just 23 years old on opening night. And no, I’m also not worried about Simmons buzzkilling him. Thomas has the tools to do it all, and I expect his overall stat line to improve substantially this season. — Alexander
Chances to make playoffs: 2.7%
Projected wins: 33.1
Jerami Grant (80)
Anfernee Simons (100)
Henderson averaged 18.9 points and 7.9 assists in his final 14 games of the season while also shooting 40% on 3-pointers during this stretch. However, Henderson struggled at the rim throughout the season. He shot 43% on layups and dunks last season, which ranked second worst among players with at least 250 attempts in a season since 2013-14, per Second Spectrum.
This award can be tough to predict since there aren’t strict criteria. However, Simons, only 25, is a player the Trail Blazers want to build around. While health is a concern — he missed significant time last season — he has shown flashes of brilliance, such as when he averaged 28.0 PPG and 5.4 APG in December last season. — Moody
You shouldn’t draft Henderson because he was the No. 3 pick in the 2023 draft. You should draft him because he played most of his raw, trying rookie season at 19 years old, and he showed clear signs of improvement late in the season. He averaged a cool 18.9 PPG, 7.9 APG and 2.3 SPG over the final 14 contests. Henderson is going to run an exciting, young offense, and he will play far better in Year 2, taking and making better shots, executing better passes with fewer turnovers and shaking some of the inefficiency concerns. — Karabell
Chances to make playoffs: 0.1%
Projected wins: 22.4
Jonas Valanciunas (91)
With Tyus Jones now with the Suns and Brogdon hurt, Poole will likely get more runs at point guard. According to Second Spectrum, the Wizards averaged 1.08 points per possession when Poole brought the ball up the floor last season. That ranked second worst among 70 players to bring the ball up for 1,000-plus possessions.
Sarr was the second overall pick in this year’s NBA draft, and many analysts rated him the most talented player in the class. But during summer league, he made only about 1 in 5 of his field goal attempts and could disappear for long stretches of time. Still, there are no clear Rookie of the Year front-runners this season, and Sarr should get plenty of playing time as the starter on a rebuilding Wizards squad. At 9-1, he has some value in the top rookie race. — Snellings
Sarr had two strong preseason games and looks to be the Wizards’ starting power forward. Even if his defense continues to be ahead of his offense, he could be a plus shot blocker and is worthy of some fantasy hoops late-round/free agent consideration. — Snellings