Betting by the numbers: Barkley bet more than some NFL teams

There’s no love lost between pro sports teams in New York and Philadelphia, so after running back Saquon Barkley left the New York Giants for the Philadelphia Eagles in the offseason, his return to MetLife Stadium was always going to be emotionally charged. Bettors were counting on it and cashed in.

At sportsbooks across the nation, Saquon Barkley’s anytime touchdown (-175) was easily the most popular player prop of Sunday, attracting more bets and handle than any other prop at ESPN BET, BetMGM or DraftKings. Barkley cashed the prop about halfway through the second quarter on a 3-yard run en route to 176 rushing yards during the Eagles’ 28-3 dismantling of the Giants. Philadelphia easily covered -3, which was also among the most popular spread bets Sunday.

Bet tracking tool Pikkit, which aggregates betting data across sportsbooks, says that the 32,150 Barkley ATD bets it tracked were more than any individual team on the moneyline. The company also reports that it saw more than four times as many wagers as the next most bet-on player to score a touchdown (A.J. Brown).

It was a big win for the betting public, but the damage was slightly mitigated for the sportsbooks who, in part anticipating heavy action on Barkley’s return to New York, priced the 27-year-old’s touchdown odds very short. Caesars Sportsbook’s vice president of trading Craig Mucklow characterized it as only the “second-best result for customers” for that reason despite the heavy volume.

“Barkley, given the angle and motivation, was -175 to score, which made Tank Bigsby the bigger payout for customers,” he said. “Another week where the short-priced touchdown scorers primarily delivered for the betting public.”

Barkley’s resurgent season in Philly has made him one of the favorites for Offensive Player of the Year — +450 entering Sunday, trailing only Derrick Henry (+165) at ESPN BET — and bettors are backing him there as well.

ESPN BET and DraftKings both report Barkley as the leader by bets and handle to win the award, with the former saying he’s attracted a leading 7.6% of wagers and 10.3% of money. BetMGM also reports Barkley as the handle leader (8.9%), with only Amon-Ra St. Brown outdoing him in tickets (8.1%).

The Eagles now stand at 4-2 and trail the Washington Commanders for the NFC East lead, but have played fewer games. It’s a somewhat surprising state of affairs given Philadelphia was the -135 favorite to win the division before the season, with Washington coming in at third with +1100 odds, per ESPN BET.

Because of the appetizing long odds, the Commanders have proven to be a popular pick among the public, attracting upwards of 42% of tickets at ESPN BET and BetMGM. However, the Eagles still have a commanding 73.4% of handle at the latter.

Oddsmaker adjustment: Jayden Daniels‘ injury

Oddsmakers were trying to figure out how much Daniels is worth to the spread after the Washington Commanders‘ star rookie quarterback left Sunday’s blowout win over the Carolina Panthers with a rib injury.

Daniels’ status for next week’s home game against Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears was unknown Sunday night, but there were reports that Daniels was “fine.”

The Commanders were listed as 2.5-point favorites over the Bears in the early lines available last week at some sportsbooks. The line had settled at pick ’em Sunday night.

John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said they received sharp money on the Bears plus the points in their early line. “We reopened the game Bears +1, due to a combination of that bet and Daniels potentially being banged up,” Murray said. “Daniels is hard to quantify. We are moving forward as if he will play next week but are monitoring it closely.”

Oddsmakers estimated Daniels could be worth as much as three to four points to the spread if he can’t go and backup Marcus Mariota gets the start.

Daniels entered Sunday as the consensus odds-on favorite (-275) to win rookie of the year and had the fourth-best odds (12-1) to win MVP at ESPN BET. He did enough against the Panthers to help bettors, rushing for 47 yards on the Commanders’ first play and finishing with 50 yards rushing on three attempts, just over his rushing yards prop (49.5) at ESPN BET.

The Cleveland Browns lost quarterback DeShaun Watson potentially for the season with an Achilles injury. Oddsmakers were not planning on making a big adjustment to the Browns’ game next week against the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens were around 10-point favorites over the Browns on Sunday.

Red-hot road favorites fueling bettors’ hot streak

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The New York Jets snapped a run of 15 consecutive road favorites covering the spread with their loss to the home underdog Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night.

Despite the Jets’ loss, the run of covering road favorites helped the public exceed expectations for a second straight Sunday. Mucklow of Caesars Sportsbook said bettors have been on a “red-hot streak” at his shop, with wins by the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills, the three largest decisions of Sunday’s early slate, all going against the house.

‘Faked’ move: Georgia-Texas roller-coast point spread

Last Wednesday, the point spread on the Georgia–Texas game moved from Longhorns -3.5 to -5.5 during a 20-minute flurry of bets at multiple sportsbooks. But by kickoff Saturday, enough money came in on Georgia to drive the line back to Texas -3.5.

“It sure looked like a group faked up the Texas line and then came back on Georgia,” Murray of the SuperBook told ESPN.

From time to time, betting syndicates will place bets on one side of a game in an attempt to push the line more favorable number. Then, later in the week, the same group may bet larger amounts of money on the other team at the more advantageous number. The tactic is known as a “head fake” in the betting industry.

Georgia closed as a 3.5-point underdog and won 30-15.

Odds & ends

80: Justin Jefferson 80+ receiving yards was the most popular, non-touchdown player prop at ESPN BET on Sunday. Jefferson finished with seven catches for 81 yards.

49: Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s outright wins as an underdog after the Steelers’ 37-15 victory over the New York Jets. It’s the second-most all-time behind Don Shula (55-58). At 49-43 (.533), Tomlin has the second-best outright winning percentage as an underdog (min. 10 games) behind only Matt LaFleur (18-12, .600).

14: Notre Dame opened as a 14-point favorite over Navy in Saturday’s game at MetLife Stadium. Navy is 6-0. Notre Dame is 6-1.

$2 million: In September, a bettor with Caesars Sportsbook placed a $500 wager on Navy to win the national championship at 4,000-1. The bet would pay a net $2 million.

0-7: Air Force’s record against the spread this season, the only team that has failed to cover the spread in each of its games so far.

$100,000: A bettor with Caesars Sportsbook this week placed a $100,000 bet on the Ravens to win the AFC North at +325. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites on the road.

$1,000: A bettor with DraftKings placed a $1,000 bet on Davante Adams to score two or more touchdowns in his debut with the Jets at 13-1 odds. Adams finished with three catches for 30 yards and no touchdowns.

+360: Georgia reclaimed the role of national championship favorite with its impressive road win at Texas on Saturday. The Bulldogs are +360 at ESPN BET, followed by Ohio State (+400), Oregon (+500) and Texas (+500).

Source: www.espn.com