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Stephen Holder, ESPN
We’re six weeks into the 2024 season and the race for the NFL’s Most Valuable Player is starting to take shape. To gauge who the leading candidates are heading into Week 7, we asked 15 experts to vote on the top contenders.
Our panel — Mike Tannenbaum, Matt Miller, Jordan Reid, Lindsey Thiry, Seth Walder, Dan Graziano, Field Yates, Jeremy Fowler, Matt Bowen, Jason Reid, Dan Orlovsky, Ben Solak, Kalyn Kahler, Aaron Schatz and myself — compiled a list of our top MVP candidates, which served as the basis for our consensus top-five contenders.
Quarterbacks, per usual, dominate the list. But the candidates are trending younger, creating new intrigue. Can a rookie win the award for the first time in more than six decades? Will last season’s winner repeat? And whose stock is rising and falling one-third of the way through this NFL season? All of that, and more, is covered as we sum up where the MVP race currently stands.
All odds are via ESPN BET.
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Big question
Current odds: +550
2024 stats: 1,529 passing yards, 10 TDs, 2 INTs, 69.4 QBR (403 rushing yards, 2 TDs)
Jackson has wasted little time in stating his case for a third MVP. The Ravens’ 0-2 start was not great for his candidacy, but he’s been on a roll since. In four straight wins, Jackson is fourth in completion percentage (70.3%), third in QBR (76.1), second in yards per dropback (9.1), has thrown eight touchdowns versus one interception and has rushed for 236 yards — most among quarterbacks. In Jackson’s past two games, wins over the Bengals and Commanders, he amassed a combined 766 yards of passing and rushing.
Keep in mind, Jackson has done all of this against impressive competition. His Week 1 performance against the defending champion Chiefs should not be ignored, seeing how he was literally inches from sending the game into overtime in the final seconds. And against the Commanders, Jackson put up 323 passing yards versus a defense that was allowing 199 on average entering the game.
That all sounds pretty valuable.
Current odds: +325
2024 stats: 1,235 passing yards, 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 57.8 QBR (83 rushing yards)
You’ve got to be one heck of a player to be on pace for career lows in touchdown passes and QBR (and a career high in interceptions) while still being considered a legitimate MVP candidate. Those realities speak to the greatness of Mahomes, as does the fact that he has willed his team to a 5-0 start despite its offensive imperfections.
The case for Mahomes’ third MVP isn’t necessarily about his numbers. He ranks 16th in QBR (57.8), is tied for second with six interceptions and sits at 11th in passing yards per game (247.0). But where would the Chiefs be without him? Kansas City’s supporting cast was already in question, and it’s been further depleted by injuries to receiver Rashee Rice (knee) and running back Isiah Pacheco (fibula). Rice, who is out for the season, is the only Chiefs player in the top 50 in receiving yards.
Mahomes has managed to transcend all of that and keep the Chiefs undefeated.
Current odds: +1200
2024 stats: 1,404 passing yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 73.7 QBR (322 rushing yards, 4 TDs)
Don’t fall into a trap of thinking it’s normal for rookies to be in the mix of the MVP conversation, even though it’s happening for the second straight season. This is rare, which is the best way to describe what Daniels is doing in Washington.
The Commanders are 4-2 and sitting on top of the NFC East, and Daniels is the biggest reason. He’s leading the NFL in completion percentage (75.3%), which might not mean much if he was playing without aggressiveness. But Daniels is also fourth in yards per attempt (8.5), suggesting the offense is hardly being stripped down to account for his inexperience.
1:02
Belichick to McAfee: Jayden Daniels has had ‘a great start to the season’
Bill Belichick joins Pat McAfee and praises Jayden Daniels’ start to his rookie season after the Commanders’ win over the Browns.
Current odds: +650
2024 stats: 1,577 passing yards, 10 TDs, 4 INTs, 66.3 QBR (75 rushing yards)
Stroud made waves as a rookie last season when he received MVP votes. Some of his numbers this season are not as flashy as 2023; he’s down slightly in yards per game and yards per attempt. But Stroud is making gains in ways that matter. His completion rate is up more than four points to 68.3%, and he’s on pace for 28 touchdown passes (he had 23 last season).
What matters more is that the Texans are off to a fast start at 5-1, making Stroud the unquestioned leader of a team that is a Super Bowl contender.
There are a couple of things that threaten to undermine Stroud: He’s trending higher in interceptions — he has four compared to five all of last season — and the pass protection issues haven’t been fully resolved, as Stroud is on pace for 45 sacks after being sacked 38 times in 2023.
Current odds: +650
2024 stats: 1,160 passing yards, 10 TDs, 0 INT, 79.3 QBR (178 rushing yards, 3 TDs)
In a number of ways, Allen is putting together his best season yet. His league-leading QBR is the highest of his career. And his touchdown-to-interception ratio is the best in the NFL. The lack of interceptions, specifically, signals some important growth in Allen’s game after he threw a career-high 18 last season.
Notably, Allen is doing this despite the Bills’ roster evolution. Receiver Stefon Diggs, formerly Allen’s top target, is now catching passes from Stroud in Houston, and Buffalo added help for Allen this week by trading for star WR Amari Cooper. Also, per usual, he’s guiding an offense that lacks a robust running game. And yet, advanced stats confirm the Bills are one of the NFL’s top offenses: Buffalo ranks fourth in offensive expected points added (44.57), a credit to Allen’s overall impact.
Just missed
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (+1800)
Darnold’s turnaround is one the NFL’s best stories of 2024, and he’s also powering one of the best teams. The 5-0 Vikings have benefited from Darnold’s efficiency and ability to avoid huge mistakes. He’s currently top five in yards per attempt (8.1) and touchdown passes (11) and playing the best football of his career.
Derrick Henry, RB, Baltimore Ravens (+5000)
The fountain of youth has found its way to Baltimore, where the 30-year-old Henry has turned back the clock, averaging a league-high 117.3 rushing yards and 5.9 yards per carry. Already the active leader in career rushing yards, Henry has a league-best eight rushing scores.
Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (+1300)
The 49ers’ injury list keeps getting longer, but Purdy’s impact hasn’t been any less obvious. He’s on pace for more than 4,600 passing yards after 4,280 last season. And he’s top five in QBR (70.3) as well as yards per attempt (8.8).
Also receiving top-10 votes: Packers QB Jordan Love, Bucs QB Baker Mayfield, Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, Steelers LB T.J. Watt, Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, Texans WR Nico Collins, Chargers QB Justin Herbert, Bengals QB Joe Burrow, Lions edge Aidan Hutchinson, Packers S Xavier McKinney, Lions QB Jared Goff, Bengals WR Ja’Marr Chase, Chiefs DT Chris Jones, 49ers RB Jordan Mason, Falcons QB Kirk Cousins, 49ers LB Fred Warner
Whose stock is up after six weeks?
Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers: Love’s knee injury in Week 1 initially felt like it might keep him out of the running. He returned after missing two games and passed for 871 yards and 10 touchdowns. He has key opportunities to state his case with games against the Texans and Lions in the next three weeks.
Whose stock is down after six weeks?
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert has been — for lack of a better word — a bit ordinary. Numbers don’t always reveal the whole story, but Herbert’s are telling: 27th in yards per game (163), 24th in yards per attempt (6.5) and 23rd in QBR (49.5). Herbert is on pace for career lows in several categories.
What would need to happen for us to see our first rookie MVP crowned since Jim Brown in 1957?
This would require huge signature moments from Daniels, something he’s already shown himself capable of. His Week 3 performance on “Monday Night Football” got people talking when he threw two touchdowns, ran for another and completed a remarkable 91% of his passes — the highest single-game completion rate by a rookie ever. His playmaking ability makes a performance like that possible at any time. It’ll likely take a few more of those to earn an MVP case, but we certainly can’t rule it out.
Source: www.espn.com