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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 5 NFL schedule for the 2024 season is stacked with great matchups, and we’ve got you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend.
Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, and analytics writer Seth Walder makes a bold prediction for each matchup. The ESPN Research team provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, while our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. Fantasy analyst Eric Moody finds fantasy football X factors, and three analysts — Kalyn Kahler, Moody and Walder — give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 5 slate, including the Jets and Vikings facing off in London and an AFC North showdown between the Ravens and the Bengals. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Saints and the Chiefs on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
NYJ-MIN | CAR-CHI | BAL-CIN
MIA-NE | CLE-WSH | IND-JAX
BUF-HOU | LV-DEN | ARI-SF
GB-LAR | NYG-SEA | DAL-PIT
NO-KC
Thursday: ATL 36, TB 30
Byes: DET, TEN, PHI, LAC
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | ESPN BET: MIN -2.5 (40.5 O/U)
Jets storyline to watch: This game is all about getting right on offense. The pass protection, especially against the blitz, needs to be a lot sharper than it was last week against the Broncos — five sacks and 14 quarterback hits. Aaron Rodgers has a sore left knee to show for it. The Jets have spent the week drilling down on their blitz pickups and route adjustments, expecting a barrage from the blitz-heavy Vikings. Maybe Rodgers’ familiarity with them will help — he has 17 career wins against the Vikings (tied for the most against Minnesota). — Rich Cimini
Vikings storyline to watch: The Vikings are slight favorites to win and go 5-0 to start the season, in large part because of how the Jets’ offense looked in Week 4. New York, which put up only nine points against Denver, didn’t look prepared to handle the kind of play-to-play personnel substitutions the Vikings’ defense typically attempts. Of the 85 teams that have started 5-0 in the Super Bowl era (since 1966), 71 of them have gone on to make the playoffs. The last team that didn’t was the 2016 Vikings, who finished that season 8-8. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has had a touchdown reception in every game this season; with one on Sunday, he can join Randy Moss (2004) as the only players in Vikings history to have a receiving TD in each of team’s first five games.
Bold prediction: The Jets’ defense will hold Minnesota under 21 points. I have faith in the Jets’ corners to hold their own even against Jefferson and Jordan Addison. They could even make quarterback Sam Darnold see a ghost or two. Whether the Jets can score enough to take advantage is another question altogether. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson. He had a tough outing last week. Bad weather and a heavy dose of Broncos cornerback Pat Surtain II crushed the fantasy hopes of Wilson’s managers. The Vikings’ defense has struggled against wide receivers, allowing the third most fantasy points per game. This sets Wilson up for an epic performance, as he has the opportunity to exploit a softer matchup and bounce back in a big way. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Vikings are the first team in the Super Bowl era to start 4-0 despite not being more than a one-point favorite in any of their first four games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Vikings 21, Jets 14
Moody’s pick: Vikings 27, Jets 16
Walder’s pick: Jets 23, Vikings 17
FPI prediction: MIN, 53.7% (by an average of 1.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: As Rodgers nears 60K yards, a look at every 10K milestone … Darnold, Vikings’ O earning coach O’Connell’s trust … Rodgers: Relationship with Robert Saleh ‘great’
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: CHI -4 (40.5 O/U)
Panthers storyline to watch: The Panthers will add two new inside linebackers to the middle of a defense already without Pro Bowl lineman Derrick Brown (knee, out for the season), safety Jordan Fuller (hamstring) and possibly nose tackle Shy Tuttle (foot) due to injuries to Shaq Thompson (Achilles, out for the season) and Josey Jewell (hamstring). That puts even more strain on a unit that has given up a league-most 32.3 points a game, one that ranks 30th in sacks (five) and the bottom of the league in pressures (26). The fortunate thing is the Panthers are facing a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams and an offensive line that is tied for 29th in sacks allowed (16) and the Carolina offense has put up 60 points in the past two games since Andy Dalton took over at QB. — David Newton
Bears storyline to watch: Chicago has an opportunity to keep its new-found success on the ground going against the Panthers’ 29th-ranked run defense. D’Andre Swift finally broke through in both the run (93 yards) and pass game (seven catches, 72 yards) last week and will look to do similar damage against a Carolina defense that is allowing 149 rushing yards per game. At the culmination of Week 5, the Bears will have faced three of the four worst run defenses in the NFL (including the Colts and the Rams) as they look for their eighth straight win at Soldier Field. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: After averaging an NFL-worst 176 yards per game with Bryce Young at QB, the Panthers are averaging the fifth-most YPG (406) with Dalton.
Bold prediction: Williams has his first game with a QBR of more than 60. Why? Williams has yet to get post a game over 40, and Carolina’s pass defense should make life easier, ranking 29th in EPA allowed per opponent dropback. — Walder
0:42
Why D’Andre Swift could be in line for a big fantasy performance vs. Panthers
Field Yates and Mike Clay discuss why the Bears’ game plan vs. the Panthers could mean a big fantasy performance for D’Andre Swift.
Fantasy X factor: Panthers running back Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard has racked up 22 or more touches and 22 or more fantasy points in two straight games. He also faces a Bears defense that has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. Notable performances include 18.4 points from Tony Pollard, 26.5 from Jonathan Taylor and 20.4 from Kyren Williams. With this matchup, Hubbard could be in for another big day. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bears have covered four straight games when favored (2-0 against the spread this season). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Bears 28, Panthers 17
Moody’s pick: Bears 27, Panthers 14
Walder’s pick: Bears 27, Panthers 20
FPI prediction: CHI, 63.3% (by an average of 5.0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Panthers’ loss to Bengals is something ‘we can build on’ … Bears P Taylor wins NFC special teams award
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BAL -2.5 (49.5 O/U)
Ravens storyline to watch: When asked about the key to beating the Bengals, Ravens cornerback Marlon Humphrey said it comes down to the matchup between Baltimore’s secondary and Cincinnati’s wide receivers. In the Ravens’ four wins over QB Joe Burrow, Baltimore has held Cincinnati’s wide receivers to an average of 119.7 yards. In the Ravens’ three losses to Burrow, Baltimore allowed the Bengals’ wide receivers to average 287.3 yards. — Jamison Hensley
Bengals storyline to watch: This matchup could be dictated by what happened in the offseason. Cincinnati opted to get an interior defensive lineman who was more adept at pass rushing (Sheldon Rankins) than run stopping (DJ Reader). Baltimore has two players, QB Lamar Jackson and new RB Derrick Henry, who are in the top four in the league in rushing yards before first contact, per ESPN Research. — Ben Baby
Stat to know: The Baltimore secondary has allowed a league-high 20 receptions of 20-plus yards.
Bold prediction: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers bounces back from a cold couple of weeks with a 100-plus-yard receiving performance. Flowers ranks seventh in open score so far, so he should have plenty of targets coming his way. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins. He might not get as much attention as Ja’Marr Chase, but he led the team with 10 targets in Week 4. He has a favorable matchup this week against a Ravens defense that allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Also, Higgins has averaged 12.0 fantasy points per game in regular-season games with Burrow when he gets six or more targets. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bengals were 1-5 ATS in division games last season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 28
Moody’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 27
Walder’s pick: Ravens 30, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BAL, 55.8% (by an average of 2.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stiff-arming 30: Why Henry’s age-defying play has Ravens back on track … Bengals, Burrow to ‘chase perfection’ in Ravens showdown
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: NE -1 (36.5 O/U)
Dolphins storyline to watch: The Dolphins will start Tyler Huntley at quarterback for the second consecutive game and feel confident in his ongoing acclimation within this offense. Coach Mike McDaniel said there were, contextually, a lot of positives to take away from Huntley’s performance in Week 4, and that just as Huntley learns how to run this offense, Dolphins coaches are also learning how to put him in the best positions to succeed. Huntley might get a bolstered receiving corps to throw to; wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. returned to practice this week and is eligible to be activated for Sunday’s game. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Patriots storyline to watch: Coach Jerod Mayo said he’s strongly considering having Antonio Gibson start over Rhamondre Stevenson at running back, as Stevenson has fumbled in each of the first four games of the season (two recovered by opponents). The Dolphins recovered a fumble in the season opener against the Jaguars but haven’t had one since. Both teams enter the matchup with an even turnover differential — four takeaways and four giveaways. — Mike Reiss
Stat to know: This contest will be a matchup between the two lowest-scoring teams in the NFL. Miami is averaging 11.3 points per game and New England is averaging 13.0.
Bold prediction: Patriots defensive lineman Keion White will sack Huntley twice. White got off to a red-hot start with four sacks in the first two games but hasn’t taken down the quarterback since. But I’m still buying as he has a 23% pass rush win rate through four games. We are witnessing the start of a breakout campaign. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Stevenson. He started the season off hot, with 23-plus touches and 17-plus fantasy points in each of the first two games. But in the past two? Just 23 touches and 8.5 points combined. The good news? If he starts, he has a much more favorable matchup this week against the Dolphins, who have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs. He’s back on the RB2 radar. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 0-4 ATS this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Patriots 14, Dolphins 12
Moody’s pick: Patriots 23, Dolphins 13
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 20, Patriots 13
FPI prediction: NE, 59.7% (by an average of 3.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hill committed to Dolphins amid frustrating season … Patriots lose C Andrews to surgery, could make RB change … Mayo sticking with Brissett as starting QB
2:33
Stephen A.: Tyreek leaving Mahomes could be the greatest mistake in NFL history
Stephen A. Smith argues that Tyreek Hill’s decision to leave the Chiefs for the Dolphins could end up being the biggest mistake ever made by an NFL player.
1 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: WSH -3 (43.5 O/U)
Browns storyline to watch: The Browns continue to struggle on offense, and now they face the NFL’s hottest offense, so it’s imperative for Cleveland’s defense to return to its elite 2023 form for the team to have a chance. The Browns have struggled to bring players to the ground, allowing 2.24 yards after contact after rush, the worst mark in the league. The Commanders rank third in rushing yards per game (169.3) and sixth in yards after contact per rush (2.11). — Daniel Oyefusi
Commanders storyline to watch: Washington’s defense played its best game last week against Arizona, holding the Cardinals to 115 total passing yards as it sacked QB Kyler Murray four times. The Commanders prevented him from hurting them off schedule, something they’ll have to do against Cleveland’s Deshaun Watson as well. But the Commanders remain bad versus the run, allowing 5.3 yards per carry, which ranks 31st in the NFL. The Browns rank 17th rushing the ball at 4.3 yards per carry. — John Keim
Stat to know: Commanders QB Jayden Daniels‘ four rushing touchdowns are tied for the most by a quarterback through his first four games in NFL history. Cam Newton (2011) and Anthony Richardson (2023) are the only quarterbacks with five rushing touchdowns through five games since 1970.
Bold prediction: Commanders defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne will have big games, with at least 1.5 sacks and five combined tackles between them. With Wyatt Teller (knee) injured, the interior of the Browns’ offensive line is hurting. Christian Wilkins took advantage last week, and Washington’s duo will do the same. — Walder
Injuries: Browns | Commanders
Fantasy X factor: Watson. He has struggled this season, averaging just 13.7 fantasy points per game. Even with top receivers Amari Cooper and Jerry Jeudy, he hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in a single game. The Commanders rank sixth in total yards allowed per game and third in points per game. Given that the Commanders allow the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, this could be a prime opportunity for Watson to turn things around. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 8-2 in Cleveland road games since the start of last season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Commanders 21, Browns 13
Moody’s pick: Commanders 28, Browns 21
Walder’s pick: Commanders 24, Browns 14
FPI prediction: WSH, 63.2% (by an average of 5.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Chubb returns to practice, says knee feels good … Commanders’ Daniels on success: ‘Still a rookie’ … Watson downplays sideline spat: ‘Got to execute’ … Daniels shakes off first INT, keeps Commanders rolling
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: JAX -3 (46.5 O/U)
Colts storyline to watch: In one of the NFL’s more confounding streaks, the Colts haven’t won a road game against Jacksonville since 2014. In those nine meetings, including a 2016 London game for which the Jaguars were designated as the home team, the Colts were shut out twice and were outscored by an average of 16 points per game. How? Turnovers, for one. Jacksonville has a plus-15 margin in those games. — Stephen Holder
Jaguars storyline to watch: The Jaguars remain the only team that hasn’t forced a turnover on defense this season (they recovered a muffed punt last week for their only turnover so far), which makes for an interesting dilemma against the Colts. QB Anthony Richardson — who injured his hip last week and was limited in practice — has thrown a league-high six interceptions, but his running ability, arm strength and potential for big plays make him dangerous. Backup QB Joe Flacco isn’t going to run around, but he shredded the Jaguars last season with the Browns (311 yards and three TDs). — Mike DiRocco
Stat to know: The Colts’ past six games have been decided by single digits, which is the second-longest active streak in the NFL (the Chiefs lead with seven).
Bold prediction: Richardson will throw at least two interceptions. The Colts might be missing Jonathan Taylor (ankle), and the Jaguars are good at stopping the run, so Indianapolis might lean on its aerial attack. Richardson can make special plays, but his accuracy remains a major concern. He has the lowest completion percentage over expectation (minus-15%) among qualifying quarterbacks this season, per NFL Next Gen Stats. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Jaguars wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The rookie had a breakout performance in Week 4, with a career-high nine targets and 21.9 fantasy points. Thomas has run the third-most routes (108) on the Jaguars, but he has been highly efficient with his opportunities. This week, he faces a Colts defense that gives up the fourth-most receptions and fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Thomas is a high-end flex option with immense upside. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Jaguars could be the first 0-4 or worse team to close as favorites since 2020. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Colts 28, Jaguars 24
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 23, Colts 21
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 30, Colts 13
FPI prediction: JAX, 50.7% (by an average of 0.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: Should Richardson not run as much? … Is the Jaguars’ season salvageable after 0-4 start?
1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: BUF -1 (47.5 O/U)
Bills storyline to watch: It may only be Week 5, but the Bills’ defense is already dealing with a variety of challenges, the latest coming with Von Miller‘s four-game suspension this week. While middle linebacker Terrel Bernard (pectoral) has a good chance to make it back to the field after missing two games, Buffalo will likely see rookie safety Cole Bishop make his first NFL start — Taylor Rapp is in concussion protocol — while rookie Javon Solomon will see more of a role on the line with Miller out. A tough task will await in the Texans’ offense with QB C.J. Stroud throwing seven passing touchdowns and zero interceptions in his past five home games. — Alaina Getzenberg
Texans storyline to watch: Coach DeMeco Ryans said the Texans are “fired up” for this matchup but said his club won’t lean into the storyline of two AFC contenders. The Bills have the third-highest point differential in the NFL (plus-39), while the Texans are 24th (minus-15), showing the Bills have been more complete through four weeks. The Texans have three wins, but each victory was secured in the last minute after they played sloppy throughout. — DJ Bien-Aime
Stat to know: If Josh Allen doesn’t throw an interception, it will be the longest streak by a Buffalo quarterback to start a season in franchise history.
Bold prediction: Texans wide receiver Tank Dell has 85-plus receiving yards and a touchdown. I’m waiting for the Dell breakout game, and it is coming. The second-year wideout still has a strong 69 open score this season, a sign that his reduced production is likely more a product of increased target competition. — Walder
7:44
Is Stefon Diggs’ matchup with the Bills a revenge game?
Dan Orlovsky, Stephen A. Smith and Mina Kimes debate if Stefon Diggs going up against the Bills is considered a revenge game.
Fantasy X factor: Texans running back Cam Akers. Buffalo’s defense is allowing the most fantasy points per game to running backs this season, making it a great matchup for Akers. He should continue to see a massive workload with Joe Mixon once again ruled out because of an ankle injury. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Allen is 27-18-2 ATS in his career on the road (13-7-1 ATS as road underdog). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Texans 27, Bills 21
Moody’s pick: Bills 27, Texans 23
Walder’s pick: Texans 27, Bills 24
FPI prediction: BUF, 56.0% (by an average of 2.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: How Settlers of Catan has brought the Buffalo Bills closer … Texans, Stroud treating Bills game as ‘just another week’ … Diggs blocking out noise, excited to face Bills
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: DEN -2.5 (35.5 O/U)
Raiders storyline to watch: With Davante Adams either (A) on his way out via trade and/or (B) out with a hamstring injury, keep an eye on the continued development of young speed receivers Tre Tucker and DJ Turner II as the Raiders attempt to run their winning streak in the series to nine straight. Both scored their first respective career TDs last week with Adams sidelined. And both found the end zone on running plays, a reverse and a jet sweep. “I hope DJ and Tre touch the ball a million more times, honestly,” said new Raiders WR1 Jakobi Meyers. “That was good to see. I was happy for them, and they deserved it.” — Paul Gutierrez
Broncos storyline to watch: The Broncos’ first divisional matchup of the season comes against a Raiders team they haven’t beaten since 2019. Denver has to figure out its offense in a hurry if it wants to avoid a ninth straight loss to its AFC West foe. It has scored all of four touchdowns this season, and rookie quarterback Bo Nix has just two pass completions that gained 30-plus yards. Coach Sean Payton has defended Nix’s progress, but with opponents crowding the short and intermediate areas — where Nix has primarily thrown the ball — the Broncos have to push down the field with more consistency. One thing that could impact the Denver pass game: Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who has 13.5 sacks over 10 games against the Broncos, missed multiple practices this week with a left ankle injury. — Jeff Legwold
Stat to know: The Raiders are seeking back-to-back road wins for the first time since Weeks 11-12 in 2022. They won at Baltimore in Week 2.
Bold prediction: Broncos linebacker Cody Barton will record 12 or more combined tackles. Taking on a larger role following Alex Singleton‘s ACL tear, Barton racked up 10 combined tackles last week against the Jets along with a 63% run stop win rate — the third highest in Week 4. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Broncos running back Javonte Williams. The Broncos’ defense has been solid, and with the Raiders missing Adams, Denver could find itself playing with a lead. The Broncos’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate (73.1%), and Williams is coming off a season-high 18 touches in Week 4. The Raiders’ defense also gives up the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Raiders have covered six straight meetings and 12 of the past 13 meetings. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Moody’s pick: Broncos 20, Raiders 17
Walder’s pick: Broncos 19, Raiders 16
FPI prediction: DEN, 52.6% (by an average of 0.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Raiders ‘focused on Denver’ amid Adams drama … Newcomers, unsung heroes keying dominant Broncos defense … Ground game breathing life into LV offense
4:05 p.m. ET | Fox | ESPN BET: SF -7 (49.5 O/U)
Cardinals storyline to watch: After scoring 88 points in their first three games and either winning or coming within a touchdown, the Cardinals were stuck in the mud last week. They’re going to try everything in their playbook to get back on track against the rival 49ers, but that starts with getting rookie wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. involved more in the offense beyond the first quarter and making sure quarterback Kyler Murray runs more than one time for 3 yards. — Josh Weinfuss
49ers storyline to watch: Many eyes will be on the two quarterbacks here, but if the Niners are to win their fifth straight against Arizona and avoid dropping to 0-2 in the division for the first time since 2021, they’ll need running back Jordan Mason to again do some heavy lifting. Mason is second in the NFL in rushing yards (447) and faces a Cardinals run defense that has allowed a league-high eight rushing touchdowns, has the lowest run stop win rate in the NFL (26.5%) and is 27th in run defense success rate (52.1%). Cardinals back James Conner also gets a favorable matchup as the league’s 12th-leading rusher goes against a Niners defense that’s 24th in success rate (55.8%) against the run. — Nick Wagoner
Stat to know: The Cardinals are 3-13 in their past 16 road games, dating back to Week 6 of 2022. They’re tied with the Bears for second-worst road record over that span.
Bold prediction: The 49ers will score 40-plus points. I know there’s some concern for San Francisco given the 2-2 start with key injuries, but it still ranks second in EPA per dropback, and Arizona ranks 27th in EPA per dropback allowed. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. The 49ers are heavily favored over the Cardinals, and the matchup has one of the highest point totals. That’s great news for Purdy. He has completed 68.9% of his passes this season, and Arizona allows the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. This puts Purdy in a prime position to shine. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 3-12 ATS in their past 15 games against division opponents. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: 49ers 33, Cardinals 24
Moody’s pick: 49ers 34, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: 49ers 40, Cardinals 17
FPI prediction: SF, 69.8% (by an average of 7.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why has WR Harrison’s offensive involvement dropped off after first quarter? … Emergence of WR Jennings a good problem for 49ers, Aiyuk … 49ers’ fears alleviated with Warner (ankle) day-to-day
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: GB -3 (48.5 O/U)
Packers storyline to watch: While Packers coach Matt LaFleur has struggled against his former boss, Kyle Shanahan, going 2-4 against his 49ers, it’s been the opposite for LaFleur against another former boss, Rams coach Sean McVay. LaFleur, who was McVay’s offensive coordinator with the Rams in 2017 and worked with McVay in Washington from 2010 to 2013, has never lost to McVay in four head-to-head meetings, including the playoffs. — Rob Demovsky
Rams storyline to watch: The Rams’ defense is ranked 31st in DVOA, allowing the most yards per play (6.4), the second-most yards per game (385.3) and the second-most points per game (28.8) in the NFL this season, according to ESPN Research. It won’t get any easier as the Packers rank third in offensive DVOA and total yards per game (410). — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: Kyren Williams has had a rushing touchdown in seven consecutive games dating back to last season, tied with Johnny Drake in 1939 for the second-longest streak in Rams history (Greg Bell, 10 straight from 1988 to 1989).
Bold prediction: Packers quarterback Jordan Love will throw a touchdown apiece to Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks and Romeo Doubs. I expect Love to get back in the groove after a slow start in his return in Week 4, and the Rams rank last among all teams in defensive EPA per play. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Reed. He has built strong chemistry with Love. Reed posted 33.1 fantasy points with Love against the Eagles in Week 1 and had 27.1 points versus the Vikings. This week, the duo faces a Rams defense that’s allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Given his connection with Love and the favorable matchup, Reed is squarely on the WR1 radar for Week 5. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Rams QB Matthew Stafford is 14-23-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog (2-2-1 ATS with the Rams). Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Packers 24, Rams 20
Moody’s pick: Packers 34, Rams 27
Walder’s pick: Packers 31, Rams 17
FPI prediction: GB, 56.6% (by an average of 2.5 points)
Matchup must-reads: Rookie K Narveson knows he’s testing Packers’ patience … Can the 1-3 Rams turn it around before it’s too late?
0:43
Kyren Williams’ fantasy outlook after Week 4
Check out some key fantasy stats from Kyren Williams’ performance in the Rams’ road loss to the Bears.
4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: SEA -6.5 (43.5 O/U)
Giants storyline to watch: Wide receiver Jalin Hyatt has just three targets and no catches in the first four weeks. It’s his time to shine with rookie standout wideout Malik Nabers dealing with a concussion. Nabers is averaging 13 targets per game. That should create plenty of opportunities for Hyatt, last year’s third-round pick, even if it won’t be easy against a Seahawks defense that has allowed just nine receptions of 20 or more yards this season. — Jordan Raanan
Seahawks storyline to watch: The Seahawks are trying to bounce back from their worst defensive performance of the season. The 42 points they allowed in their loss to Detroit on Monday night was more than double what they had allowed in any of their first three games, though it came with roughly half their defense sidelined with injuries. They’re hoping to get Leonard Williams (ribs), Uchenna Nwosu (knee), Boye Mafe (knee), Julian Love (thigh) and Jerome Baker (hamstring) back this week. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: The Seahawks are tied for the fourth-most sacks in the NFL with 14. Seattle has recorded at least three sacks in each of past three games.
Bold prediction: Giants wide receiver Darius Slayton will have five or more receptions. If Nabers misses this game, those targets are going to have to go somewhere, and they can’t all go to Wan’Dale Robinson. Though Slayton hasn’t gotten a ton of targets, he has been solid with a 62 open score this year. — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Seahawks wide receiver DK Metcalf. Metcalf has been on fire lately, averaging 10.6 targets and 21.5 fantasy points over his past three games. Known for running a high percentage of his routes on the outside, Metcalf faces a Giants defense that surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to outside receivers. Expect a big game for Metcalf against Giants cornerback Deonte Banks. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: All four Giants games have gone under the total this season. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 17
Moody’s pick: Seahawks 27, Giants 14
Walder’s pick: Seahawks 24, Giants 6
FPI prediction: SEA, 65.3% (by an average of 5.7 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants ‘disappointed but not discouraged’ going into Week 5 … Why Seahawks plan to lean on RB Walker more … Seahawks add veteran lineman Peters to practice squad
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: PIT -2.5 (44.5 O/U)
Cowboys storyline to watch: The Cowboys will be without their two best players on defense in Micah Parsons (ankle) and DeMarcus Lawrence (foot), facing the 10th-best rushing offense. Can they show necessary consistency against a Steelers offense that averaged 34.5 rushing attempts per game despite averaging just 3.7 yards per carry? The Cowboys are 27th in run defense but gave up just 26 rushing yards last week. Without their two best edge rushers, the Cowboys will have to contain QB Justin Fields as a runner and thrower. — Todd Archer
Steelers storyline to watch: The Steelers’ defense had an uncharacteristic performance in Week 4, giving up a season-high 27 points to the Colts and allowing them to convert 53% of third downs, also a season high. While the Colts used big plays to put the Steelers on their heels, the Cowboys’ offense hasn’t been nearly as explosive. The Cowboys, who will be without WR2 Brandin Cooks (knee infection), have just 15 total passes over 20 yards or carries over 10 yards, marking the second-lowest total in the league. — Brooke Pryor
Stat to know: The Cowboys are averaging a league-low 75.3 rushing yards per game. That’s the fourth-worst mark in franchise history through the first four games.
Bold prediction: Steelers running back Najee Harris will have 100-plus rushing yards. Even after the Cowboys allowed a league-low 1.2 yards per designed running play to the Giants, they still are the worst team in the league in terms of EPA allowed per designed carry. Harris should be able to take advantage. — Walder
1:34
Could Cowboys’ season be over with loss to Steelers?
Dan Orlovsky and Kimberley A. Martin break down why the Cowboys’ season could be over if they lose in Pittsburgh.
Fantasy X factor: Fields. He made history against the Colts, becoming the first Steelers player to throw for 300 yards, rush for 50 yards and score two rushing touchdowns in a single game. This week, Fields has a great matchup against a Cowboys defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Dallas also ranks fifth in rushing yards allowed to QBs, which bodes well for Fields’ dual-threat abilities. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS on extra rest since the start of last season and 6-0 ATS when including Week 1 games. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Cowboys 21, Steelers 15
Moody’s pick: Steelers 26, Cowboys 19
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 24, Steelers 22
FPI prediction: PIT, 52.6% (by an average of 0.8 points)
Matchup must-reads: Cowboys counting on depth with Parsons, Lawrence injured … Tomlin leaning toward sticking with hot hand at QB in Fields
8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: KC -5 (43.5 O/U)
Saints storyline to watch: Saints tight end Taysom Hill didn’t practice on Thursday with separate rib and chest injuries. He has missed seven quarters of play this season, including a game against the Eagles, due to injuries. The Saints’ run game appears to be significantly impacted with Hill out of the lineup. When Hill was on the field against the Falcons, the Saints averaged 6.1 yards per rush compared to 2.6 yards per rush without him in the lineup. — Katherine Terrell
Chiefs storyline to watch: The Saints lead the NFL in scoring at almost 32 points per game. But the Chiefs have held two other opponents in the top 10 in scoring (Ravens and Bengals) below their season averages. For that matter, the Chiefs held their other two opponents (Falcons and Chargers) below theirs as well. — Adam Teicher
Stat to know: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes‘ 53 QBR is currently 17th in the NFL. This is the first season he has posted a QBR under 75 during the opening four games.
Bold prediction: The Saints will win. A week ago, they narrowly lost to the Falcons despite surrendering a muffed punt (returned for a touchdown) and a pick-six. I believe the New Orleans we saw the first couple of weeks is closer to the real deal, and the Chiefs are not as good as their record indicates. They rank just 11th in EPA per play and are now without Rashee Rice (knee). — Walder
Fantasy X factor: Chiefs wide receiver Xavier Worthy. He scored 13.7 fantasy points against the Chargers, marking his second-best performance after 20.8 points in Week 1. However, Worthy had only four targets in the game. He should see an increase in targets without Rice, who led the Chiefs with 29 targets. The rookie is also lethal as a runner. Worthy is best viewed as a high-end flex option. See Week 5 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games as road underdogs. They are 16-6 ATS in that role since 2018 and 29-13 ATS since 2014. Read more.
Kahler’s pick: Chiefs 30, Saints 28
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 23, Saints 16
Walder’s pick: Saints 24, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: KC, 60.6% (by an average of 4.2 points)
Matchup must-reads: ‘Sucks to lose a game like that’: Injured Saints look to regroup as Chiefs loom … Extent of Rice’s injury still unclear
Source: www.espn.com