Bounce-back picks: Which forwards can repeat past scoring success?

There are not as many fantasy-relevant players that experience a season-long lull in production to then later return to their usual self later. But there are enough that’s it’s always worth asking the question: Will this player bounce back?

If we use our threshold of averaging at least 1.7 fantasy points per game (FPPG) for their career as a mark of relevance, only 62 different forwards since 2009-10 have had a season in which they dropped at least 0.35 FPPG and then later recovered to their career average or better. Admittedly, some of the forwards have done it more than once, but that’s still a pretty small grouping since 419 unique forwards have finished among the top 100 forwards in those 15 seasons.

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Quick trivia question: Only five forwards have finished among the top 100 forwards in each and every season starting in 2009-10? Answer at the end.

Dips in production can happen for different reasons.

In the 2016-17 season, Claude Giroux dipped to 1.6 FPPG, which compares to his current career rate of 1.9. The following season, he was back to 2.3 FPPG and had many fruitful campaigns after that. If we dig into his Wikipedia page, we can see that he had surgery in May 2016 for hip and abdominal injuries and later blamed his down season on lingering effects. I would argue this is an example of an injury-driven bounce back. Ottawa Senators legend Daniel Alfredsson posted 1.4 FPPG in 2010-11 (career 1.7), had back surgery after the season, then posted 1.8 FPPG in 2011-12.

In the 2010-11 season, Ilya Kovalchuk only produced 1.6 FPPG against his career 1.9 rate. He returned to 2.3 FPPG in the 2011-12 season. The dip year was his first full season with the New Jersey Devils after coming over at the trade deadline and may represent what I’d classify as a situational bounce back. Similarly, in that same 2010-11 season, a 23-year-old James Neal was doing OK with the Dallas Stars, but struggled mightily when traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins. He finished 2010-11 with 1.5 FPPG, but would go on to 2.3 FPPG the next season with the Penguins.

Some players seemed to just struggle while the NHL was in its COVID-bubble season. Timo Meier, Dylan Larkin and William Nylander are all examples, dropping below fantasy relevance for that particular 2020-21 campaign. Other times, it is hard to pinpoint a reason for the slump. Alex DeBrincat dropped to 1.5 FPPG (1.9 FPPG career) during the 2019-20 season, but there isn’t an obvious factor on which to place the blame.

By that same token, there is also a boost that can sometimes come from new surroundings to help with a bounce back. In the past 15 years, 32 forwards have increased their season-to-season FPPG by 0.35 when switching jerseys in the offseason (at least 30 games played and a minimum of 1.7 FPPG). That’s not a lot of players finding success in a new home when you think about how many “new faces, new places” we get every summer. Still, I bring it up because a few of the player I’m flagging for potential bounce-back campaigns below are with a new team.

All players presented below are shown with their combined 2021-22 and 2022-23 fantasy points per game (FPPG) from two seasons versus their FPPG from last season.

The big ones

Let’s start with the most important players that we want to see bounce back. These are the ones that will cause you to lose sleep in a keeper league, especially one with limited roster retention. You know how high the potential return is, but you look at last season and wonder if the player can return to those heights.

Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres (2021-23 FPPG: 2.35, last season FPPG: 1.99): Let’s be real: You aren’t letting Thompson go in a keeper league, and you probably even aren’t all that upset with his 1.99 FPPG last season. But the magical numbers he posted in the two seasons prior didn’t manifest in 2023-24. The Sabres are relying on some developing players to get the offense going again, with JJ Peterka the one expected to join Thompson’s line. Thompson is still right in the wheelhouse of his prime, not turning 27 until the end of October.

Verdict: With how stellar Thompson was for two seasons, let’s go ahead and call this dip in production a “blip” and look for improved results this coming season.

Alex DeBrincat, W, Detroit Red Wings (2021-23 FPPG: 2.15, last season FPPG: 1.85): As mentioned above already, DeBrincat has already had a bounce-back campaign on his resume, when he had a down season in 2019-20. He’s actually scored 27 goals for two consecutive seasons, but we know he can do closer to 40 if the circumstances are correct. Assuming the Red Wings sort things out with Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider as RFAs, this team will have more than one line of offense for opponents to think about and, hopefully, a more potent power play.

Verdict: I think DeBrincat gets a pass for a situational downturn in his first season with a not-so-hot Red Wings offense. Above 2.0 FPPG should be the expectation again.

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Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators (2021-23 FPPG: 2.25, last season FPPG: 1.97): Stutzle had a 17.1 shooting percentage in 2022-23 when he scored 39 goals, but only had a 9.4 shooting percentage when he scored just 18 times last season. His career mark is 12.9%, which seems more in line with what we’d expect to see (the 788 seasons by centers who finished among the top 100 forwards in the past 15 seasons combine for a 13.13 shooting percentage).

Verdict: We should see Stutzle back over 2.0 FPPG, but maybe not the 2.25 he put up in the two seasons prior to last.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edmonton Oilers (2021-23 FPPG: 2.20, last season FPPG: 1.76): RNH’s goals per 82 rate for the seasons from 2018-19 to last year have been:

• 28.0

• 27.8

• 25.2

• 14.3

• 37.0

• 18.5.

That 37-goal campaign from 2022-23 sure stands out.

Verdict: He’s still a fantasy starter, but that magical season probably isn’t going to get repeated.

Elias Lindholm, C, Boston Bruins (2021-23 FPPG: 2.11, last season FPPG: 1.64): Like many of the aforementioned players here, Lindholm has a monster season inflating his 2021-23 two-year FPPG. His 42-goal season in 2021-22 stands out even more than Nugent-Hopkins’ 37-goal campaign. The terrible FPPG from his split season last year is definitely not indicative of his potential, so we are expecting better. But just how much better will rest largely on what kind of chemistry Lindholm finds with David Pastrnak.

Verdict: Depending on acquisition cost, Lindholm is a fantastic fantasy gamble. His current ADP of 158.1 on ESPN is appealing.

Timo Meier, W, New Jersey Devils (2021-23 FPPG: 2.47, last season FPPG: 2.05): Splitting time between the first, second and third lines, while also missing a dozen games to injury, was not conducive to Meier’s success in his first full season as a Devil. With a new coach, Sheldon Keefe, that has experience handling offensive stars and a new anchor in the crease, we’ll see if Meier can thrive among fellow play-drivers or if his world-beating stats were a product of being mostly on an island in San Jose.

Verdict: There are too many other cooks in this kitchen for Meier to approach 325 shots again, but he should build on his 2.1 FPPG from last season.

Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Washington Capitals (2021-23 FPPG: 1.99, last season FPPG: 1.25): I know, I know… How much longer are we going to think Dubois can have a big breakthrough? Working against him is the fact he has still never eclipsed 63 points in seven NHL seasons. Working for him is the fact that he is still only 26. He’s younger than players like Yegor Sharangovich or Drake Batherson, who have just come onto the fantasy scene themselves in the past couple seasons. The Capitals assignment is much ore promising than the role he had with the Los Angeles Kings, where he was relegated to the third line early and never played his way up the depth chart. He will have at least the second-line center role handed to him on a platter this season with room to grow if he earns it. That includes power-play opportunities that were few and far between last season.

Verdict: Buyer beware, but if I see Dubois available when I’m drafting to my bench, it’s going to be hard to resist taking a chance.

Troubled twosomes

Roope Hintz, C, Dallas Stars (2021-23 FPPG: 2.28, last season FPPG: 1.84) and Jason Robertson, W, Dallas Stars (2021-23 FPPG: 2.51, last season FPPG: 2.06): A marked dip in production by the Stars’ top line last season may have had more to do with the wealth spreading throughout the offense. Dallas was a one-trick pony up front before last season when Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston helped spread the love. With Joe Pavelski retiring, the Stars have to rearrange their attack and this Hintz-Robertson duo could wind up getting a boost from their new linemate, whether it’s Johnston or someone else.

Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks (2021-23 FPPG: 1.69, last season FPPG: 1.22) and Troy Terry, W, Anaheim Ducks (2021-23 FPPG: 1.84, last season FPPG: 1.51): Zegras and Terry were not worthy of a roster spot in shallow leagues last season, and with Zegras missing much of the season due to an ankle injury. They both have the talent, but the Ducks offense is definitely in transition. Neither Zegras nor Terry seem guaranteed to be locked into top-six roles, and they may even be pushed for top power-play roles if they don’t up their offense. With so many young players vying to find their role with the Ducks, it’s going to be risky taking on reclamation projects like Zegras and Terry until we see how the offense is stacked.

Upside wingers to keep an eye on

These players shouldn’t make or break your fantasy season and probably aren’t under keeper consideration unless you play with very deep roster retention rules. Chalk them up as possible sleepers.

Jeff Skinner, W, Edmonton Oilers (2021-23 FPPG: 1.90, last season FPPG: 1.44): The chance to play with the soon-to-be-highest-paid player in the league is enough to consider Skinner for a return to fantasy relevance. Certainly that when you consider his 1.9 FPPG from the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons came when Thompson was putting up Leon Draisaitl-like stat lines.

Nikolaj Ehlers, W, Winnipeg Jets (2021-23 FPPG: 1.93, last season FPPG: 1.65): Fewer than 16 minutes of ATOI for the second consecutive season, it would be nice to see Ehlers get closer to 18 minutes and see a little more power play responsibility, considering his scoring touch.

Vladimir Tarasenko, W, Detroit Red Wings (2021-23 FPPG: 2.08, last season FPPG: 1.66): He didn’t earn fantasy roster spots last season, but should be heavily involved in the Red Wings top six for this coming campaign.

Rickard Rakell, W, Pittsburgh Penguins (2021-23 FPPG: 1.84, last season FPPG: 1.47): Like it or not, Rakell is still probably starting the campaign with Sidney Crosby as a linemate. What’s more, is the path to power-play minutes became easier with the departure of Jake Guentzel at last season’s deadline.

Andrei Kuzmenko, W, Calgary Flames (2021-23 FPPG: 1.82, last season FPPG: 1.38): He actually managed to turn things around after getting traded to the Flames last season (1.89 FPPG in 29 games), so there is hope for him to be a contributor again this season.

Reilly Smith, W, New York Rangers (2021-23 FPPG: 1.65, last season FPPG: 1.21): Just a name to watch as he’s been fantasy relevant in the past, but was lost with the Penguins last season. He should get a crack at the Rangers top line.

Jason Zucker, W, Buffalo Sabres (2021-23 FPPG: 1.57, last season FPPG: 1.23): He’s 32 years old, so definitely in the decline phase of his career, but a resurgence might be possible thanks to the youth around him. Zucker could wind up playing the veteran role among a talented young Sabres top six.

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The over 35 club

These players are well past the age in which a bounce-back is a reasonable expectation. That said, Joe Pavelski’s extended success with the Stars through his age-39 seasons does open up the possibility that players can find ways to tap youthful energy in the right situation. But note that only 76 of the 1,500 season stat lines that make up the top 100 fantasy forwards of the past 15 years came from a player that was 35 or older (at the end of each campaign).

Also note that the average ranking among the top 100 for those age-35-plus seasons is 59th. And that average drops to 63rd if you remove the nine seasons accounted for by Martin St. Louis and Alex Ovechkin, who combined for six 25th-or-better placements at age 35 or greater.

• Alex Ovechkin, W, Washington Capitals (2021-23 FPPG: 2.70, last season FPPG: 2.11)

• Max Pacioretty, W, Toronto Maple Leafs (2021-23 FPPG: 2.26, last season FPPG: 1.29)

• Evgeni Malkin, C, Pittsburgh Penguins (2021-23 FPPG: 2.19, last season FPPG: 1.79)

• David Perron, W, Ottawa Senators (2021-23 FPPG: 1.75, last season FPPG: 1.48)

• Cam Atkinson, W, Tampa Bay Lightning (2021-23 FPPG: 1.68, last season FPPG: 1.26)

Trivia answer

The five forwards that have been a top 100 forward for fantasy points in each and every season for the past 15 seasons are: Alex Ovechkin, Anze Kopitar, Jamie Benn, Claude Giroux and John Tavares. There have been some close calls in there, with Giroux finishing 96th among forwards last season for example. Joe Pavelski and Patrice Bergeron were top 100 in 14 of the past 15 seasons (Bergeron retired last year, of course, and Pavelski has now hung up his skates, too), while Patrick Kane and Sidney Crosby made the cut 13 out of 15 seasons.

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Source: www.espn.com