Pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Friday

Todd Zola, FantasySep 13, 2024, 12:15 PM ET
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- Writing on fantasy baseball game theory and player analysis since 1997
- Winner of the 2013 Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association Best Baseball Article

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file has been updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication

Rocky mountain high

Traditionally, the opening few paragraphs of this space is a deep dive on a pitcher of interest, slated to take the hill that day. This time, there is a scheduling quirk taking center stage. Beginning with Friday’s series with the Chicago Cubs, the Colorado Rockies play 12 of their final 15 games at home.

Everyone knows Coors Field is the most favorable hitting venue in the league. However, some assume it’s due to embellishing home runs. Yes, the altitude aids the long ball, but there are superior home run parks. Coors Field is the league’s top hitting park because the vast outfield yields an above average fly ball BABIP. Fenway Park’s fly ball BABIP almost always leads the league due to the Green Monster. Coors Field is usually in the next group, with the difference being others suppress homers. The tandem of more homers and more hits is what fuels more offense.

On a single game basis, park factors generally take a back seat to the quality of the respective offenses and pitching. The exception is in the extremes, and Coors Field certainly makes the cut. Not to mention, while the main focus here is that day’s ledger, picking up a Rockies hitter now renders his available for 80% of the Rockies remaining games.

There have been seasons where the only available Colorado batters are fringy guys, hitting lower in the order, but not this year. The only Rockies hitter rostered in more than half of ESPN leagues is Brenton Doyle and his current rostership is just 51%. Doyle’s defense keeps him in the lineup every day. He’s broken out offensively, with a legit shot at 25 HR and 30 SB.

Another regular to consider is SS Ezequiel Tovar (26.6% rostered). Tovar is also enjoying a breakthrough year, but without the steals offered by Doyle. Oddly, Tovar has hit better on the road, but that’s probably just noise, even if it is with over five months of action under his belt. Batting first or second each game merits fantasy consideration.

Even though 2B/3B Ryan McMahon (43.1% rostered) historically hits better against right-handers, the lefty swinger is exhibiting slight reverse splits so far, keeping him in the lineup on a regular basis. His dual eligibility also comes in handy down the stretch.

Those needing last season lighting in a bottle should consider OF Nolan Jones (32.1%). Jones was ranked as a top-50 fantasy player heading into the season, but he’s been disappointing between injury stints. He’s healthy now, with just over two weeks to display the skills generating exactly 20 homers and 20 steals in 2023.

What you may have missed on Thursday

Detroit Tigers LHP Tarik Skubal was hit just below his glove by a line drive off the bat of Colorado Rockies OF Brenton Doyle in the sixth inning of yesterday’s matinee. Skubal snared the deflection and completed the frame but was then lifted after throwing only 84 pitches. The Tigers held a slim 2-1 lead and are still in wild-card contention, so Skubal likely would have come out for the seventh if not for the incident. Still, X-rays were negative, so the club is hopeful that Skubal doesn’t miss his next start.
Boston Red Sox OF Rob Refsnyder was scratched prior to last night’s matchup with the New York Yankees due to a sore wrist. LHP Nestor Cortes started for the Yankees so Refsnyder’s .304/.396/.552 output facing lefties was missed in what turned out to be a 2-1, 10-inning victory for the Yankees. Wilyer Abreu and his .185/.241/.278 line facing southpaws replaced Refsnyder. It’s unclear as to whether or not Refsnyder will miss any more action. The club also reported that even though the imaging on RHP Liam Hendricks‘ elbow came back negative, the reliever will be shut down from his minor-league rehab and concentrate on helping the Red Sox bullpen next season.
San Francisco Giants SS Tyler Fitzgerald left last night’s affair because of lower-back tightness. Fitzgerald only played three innings before exiting. He was replaced by Marco Luciano. Fitzgerald hasn’t hit a home run since August 14. Since that time, he’s batting just .253/.303/.319, though in September that line has improved to .333/.385/.472. Fitzgerald is considered to be day-to-day, although the club doesn’t expect him to miss much, if any, action.
Houston Astros 2B Jose Altuve sat out yesterday’s contest thanks to discomfort in his side. He had left Wednesday’s game early and, even though the club doesn’t believe the injury is serious, they gave Altuve Thursday off. His status for tonight’s opener of a weekend road set against the Los Angeles Angels is unknown at present.

Everything else you need to know for Friday

Friday presents the standard 15-game docket, with everything contested under the lights. Action gets under way with three tilts in the 6:40 p.m. block.

It was tempting to lead with the return of Texas Rangers SP Jacob deGrom (36.4% rostered), but he’ll have to settle for the first note in the “Everything else you need to know” section. What you need to know is deGrom made four rehab appearances in his recovery from June 2023 Tommy John surgery. He tossed 10 2/3 frames, fanning 15 while issuing just one free pass. He completed four innings in his final rehab effort with Triple-A Round Rock, needing only 49 pitches. This means deGrom isn’t likely to throw more than 60 to 65 in his debut on the road against the Seattle Mariners, posing a conundrum. No team strikes out more than the Mariners, but deGrom may only complete four or five frames. In formats with a weekly innings or games started limit, deGrom may be an inefficient use of starts. Otherwise, there is no reason to wait and see.
For the second time this week, the pitcher we highlighted in the introduction was bumped to the following day. It didn’t affect Toronto Blue Jays SP Bowden Francis, who lost a no-hitter when New York Mets SS Francisco Lindor led off the ninth inning with a game-tying home run. Yesterday, colleague Mike Sheets featured Washington Nationals SP DJ Herz (8.3% rostered), but the Nationals opted to push the lefty to Friday. Herz and SP Mitchell Parker each worked in last Saturday’s doubleheader and the club chose to give Herz the extra day. Here is Herz’s note from Thursday: Against the Miami Marlins at home, Herz is an easy streaming option. The Marlins have been the worst team in the NL this year versus left-handed pitching (75 wRC+), ranking bottom-four in both walk rate (6.7%) and ISO (.122).
It’s an otherwise risky slate for streaming pitchers. As such, let’s bend the rostership guidelines and point out Houston Astros LHP Yusei Kikuchi (58.1% rostered) has a juicy matchup on the road in Anaheim. For the season, the Los Angeles Angels offense has been below average facing southpaws and they’ve been even worse lately, fanning at a 31.1% clip with a lefty on the hill over the past month.
A deep league streaming option is Kansas City Royals RHP Alec Marsh (4.2% rostered) for his road date with the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates sport the third lowest wOBA in the league with a right-hander on the hill while striking out a tick above league average, but the club has won 15 of his 22 starts, indicating Marsh’s run prevention is solid.
Betting tip of the day: Tonight, the Minnesota Twins are giving the ball to RHP Bailey Ober for their home date with the Cincinnati Reds. The line for Ober completing at least six innings is -225, indicating he’s likely to do so. Ober averages 6.2 strikeouts per six frames, but the Reds whiff at the fourth-highest rate facing right-handers. That’s enough to take Ober for over 6.5 strikeouts (+140).

Starting pitcher rankings for Friday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.