Draft these forwards ready for their breakout season

Sean Allen, Special to ESPN.comSep 10, 2024, 09:00 AM ET
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We are looking for a forward that is 22 years and 331 days old, with 140 games of NHL experience under his belt.

Seems a little too specific and limiting, right? But keep that target in mind.

This is about finding breakout forwards you can draft to your fantasy team. Ones that we hope will suddenly start producing at a pace that will make you look like you had a crystal ball handy as you made your selections.

I’ve been a proponent of the age-curve breakout measure in the past, but with increasing amounts of data available to us, why limit ourselves to a single factor when prognosticating which players are ready to leap into the fantasy fray?

Let’s add NHL experience into the mix as another ingredient to our fantasy stew.

When it comes to age, it’s 25 to 30 years of age that is the peak range for NHL fantasy production among forwards. A density plot of the top-100 NHL forwards for fantasy points for each season going back 15 years shows a smooth, unimodal distribution that peaks at around age 27, with the actual mean coming in at 27 years and 331 days.

That age range has been great to use in the past, and has been a good indicator of previous breakout seasons when we target to age range of around 21 to 24 among forwards.

We can go much deeper though.

Here is the exercise in a nutshell:

Take all game logs from the past 15 seasons (from 2009-10 onward).
Find all players who debuted in 2009-10 or afterward.
Trim that list to players older than 24.7 as of today, with at least 100 games of NHL experience.
Search the game logs for the first time a player manages to achieve a 30-game rolling average of at least 1.7 fantasy points (my traditional benchmark for broad relevance to most leagues).
Use that list to determine the average age and average NHL experience for when each player managed to “break out” into fantasy relevance.

This exercise brings us a list of 96 players that are old enough, experienced enough and have achieved at least passing fantasy relevance. This ranges from the likes of Elias Pettersson or Brady Tkachuk, who “broke out” (by our definition) instantly upon entering the league, all the way to Alex Killorn, who was 30 years old with 545 NHL games played before he met the 30-game rolling average of 1.7 fantasy points.

Using those 96 players, the average age they met the fantasy threshold was 22 years and 331 days, while the average NHL experience was 140 games.

Which brings us back full circle to our theoretical target player.

As we seek to identify some top candidates approaching the breakout threshold, let’s use what we’ve learned to start focusing.

Let’s give some leeway on the age to account for the fact that not every human is the same and use 23 years and 331 days (an extra year) as our cutoff. That leaves us with a pool of 133 players to consider for a breakout.

However, we can remove some players if they have already established themselves as fantasy stars. So, anyone with at least 50 games played and a fantasy points per game (FPPG) rate of better than 1.7 has, for all intents and purposes, already broken out. So we can take out Jack Hughes, Tim Stutzle, Cole Caufield, Matt Boldy and Connor Bedard.

Let’s now use NHL experience as our next filter. If the target is 140 games played, let’s give 40 games of flexibility on either side of that. So we want players with between 100 and 180 games already played in the league. I’m not suggesting for a moment some of the players outside of the range won’t have a big season, but we are trying to use recent history to guide us.

That brings us down to 20 forwards under our age cutoff, in the right ballpark for experience and who aren’t already established stars. But we fantasy players aren’t your average NHL fan. If someone has come onto the radar before, they aren’t really due for a breakout in the traditional sense. So, let’s use our 30-game rolling average test one more time to weed out any players that may have achieved this level of success already — even if only for a time.

Of our 20 remaining players, Matty Beniers, Mason McTavish, Yegor Chinakhov, Shane Pinto, Jake Neighbours and Juraj Slafkovsky have already managed sustained success at some point — at least enough to put them on draft lists for your average fantasy player.

That ultimately leaves use with 14 names. A reminder of the criteria that got us here:

Each forward is under 23 years and 331 days old.
They have are below 1.7 FPPG for their career so far.
They have at least 100 games of NHL experience, but fewer than 180.
They have not had a sustained run of 30 games in which they averaged 1.7 FPPG or better.

The breakouts

Without further ado, let’s get into a look at the final players, presented in order of FPPG from last season with their age as of Sept. 1, 2024, and their NHL experience.

Jack Quinn, F, Buffalo Sabres (1.64 FPPG, 23.0 years old, 104 games played): There are three good reasons to be excited about the Sabres top six this season. Quinn and JJ Peterka both made this final “breakouts” list, but Dylan Cozens also meets some of the key criteria. Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch are an established threat at the top of the depth chart, and with Jeff Skinner out of the mix there are more opportunities for these young, promising Sabres to seize some of the action.

Quinton Byfield, F, Los Angeles Kings (1.43 FPPG, 22.0 years old, 179 games played): It was surprising to see Byfield didn’t manage to beat our 30-game rolling threshold, as he did make some waves at time last season. He spent the majority of it on the wing, playing on the top line with Anze Kopitar, but there is a sense he is going to slide back to center now. That would push him down the depth chart a little, but also free him to have more control when he’s on the ice. Kevin Fiala might make a nifty linemate and Byfield will still get to hang out with Kopitar on the advantage.

JJ Peterka, F, Buffalo Sabres (1.41 FPPG, 22.6 years old, 161 games played): The popular choice to replace Skinner on the top line, Peterka actually played the role late last season as the Sabres played out the string. He had seven goals and two helpers across the final 12 games of the campaign, but it’s the 46 shots that stand out. If he is generating that many pucks on net all season, he could have the biggest break out among this list.

Matias Maccelli, F, Utah Hockey Club (1.32 FPPG, 23.9 years old, 169 games played): Just making the cut under our age threshold, Maccelli will need some depth-chart luck to have a leap in value. That said, he has some highlight-reel passing on his resume already and, if he doesn’t earn a spot in the top six, is likely next-man-up to start the year.

Cole Perfetti, F, Winnipeg Jets (1.28 FPPG, 22.7 years old, 140 games played): Still without a contract as we head into September, Perfetti first needs to re-up with the Jets. But once that is done, he should have a lock on a top-six role this season — which is something that came and went for Perfetti last year. But with Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli now firmly out of the mix, the path is clear for Perfetti to show he can add some consistency to his scoring touch.

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Marco Rossi, F, Minnesota Wild (1.25 FPPG, 22.9 years old, 103 games played): Success for Rossi will depend on how he is deployed. While he did play more than 300 minutes last season at five-on-five with Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello (with some success), he’ll need to grab and keep that role. It’s especially important because he is unlikely to get first-unit power-play minutes ahead of Kaprizov, Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson-Ek and Matt Boldy.

Connor McMichael, F, Washington Capitals (1.16 FPPG, 23.6 years old, 155 games played): They key for McMichael will be consistent top-six minutes and, maybe, perhaps, possibly elbowing his way onto the top power-play unit. The Capitals have plenty of candidates who will want to be there with Alex Ovechkin still sniping away. Hopefully, for McMichael’s sake, Pierre-Luc Dubois can bounce back from his poor showing last season and give the Caps two scoring lines to work with.

Luke Evangelista, F, Nashville Predators (1.15 FPPG, 22.5 years old, 104 games played): The prospects of an Evangelista breakout looked better before July 1. The addition of two, top-caliber free-agent wingers probably pushes the 22-year-old down to the third line. That said, Evangelista is probably the first one called upon if the Predators suffer and injury to the top six or need to shake up the lines. Don’t write him off just yet.

Kent Johnson, F, Columbus Blue Jackets (0.89 FPPG, 21.9 years old, 130 games played): The Blue Jackets will likely lean even more into the youth of their lineup. Johnson is among the key cogs for their future.

Alexander Holtz, F, Vegas Golden Knights (0.85 FPPG, 22.6 years old, 110 games played): Perhaps my favorite potential breakout player brings up the rear on this list. Not only does Holtz meet all of our criteria to be primed for an increase in production, he also has a the benefit of a change of scenery and opportunity to potentially seize a top-line role. Sure, it’s not going to be handed to him on a silver platter, but the move to the Golden Knights — who only got lighter on the wings during the offseason — affords Holtz a chance to fight for a key top-six role during the preseason.

Going off the books

If you are keeping count, that’s 10 of the 14 from the final list accounted for. The final four just don’t seem to have a path to success for the coming season, so, despite being suggested by the criteria, I’ll just list them without comment. But before that, here’s a couple more handpicked potential fantasy breakouts that didn’t meet the experience thresholds.

Shane Wright, F, Seattle Kraken (1.72 FPPG, 20.7 years old, 16 games played): Wright had a really nice five-game showing with the Kraken in April before going back for the AHL playoffs. He also had a really solid AHL season overall. His development has been slow, but if the Kraken ever decide to take off the training wheels, he might very well be ready.

Logan Stankoven, F, Dallas Stars (1.4 FPPG, 21.5 years old, 43 games played): He has even more experience thanks to some decent ice time deep into the NHL playoffs. The Stars might still have the firepower to go three lines deep on offense, which is exactly how Wyatt Johnston managed his breakout last season.

Thomas Bordeleau, F, San Jose Sharks (1.33 FPPG, 22.7 years old, 43 games played): There are a lot of shiny new toys for the Sharks to play with as they craft their top six, with William Eklund, Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith arguably having the edge on Bordeleau. But don’t count out the extended experience here, as Bordeleau made his debut in the 2021-22 season and has 102 AHL games.

Others on the list

Here are the remainder of the players on the list of 14, who I didn’t think had a reasonable shot at top-six minutes coming into this season.

Philip Tomasino, F, Nashville Predators (1.11 FPPG, 23.1 years old, 151 games played)
Simon Holmstrom, F, New York Islanders (1.01 FPPG, 23.3 years old, 125 games played)
Aliaksei Protas, F, Washington Capitals (0.96 FPPG, 23.7 years old, 169 games played)
Vasily Podkolzin, F, Edmonton Oilers (0.66 FPPG, 23.2 years old, 137 games played)