Biggest betting storylines ahead of the NFL season

Another NFL season is upon us, and with it comes a rare chance at history. The Kansas City Chiefs will try to become the first franchise to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They’re the first franchise to even attempt the feat since the New England Patriots in 2005.

Kansas City’s modern dominance is summed up nicely in the betting odds. At +500, the Chiefs enter the 2024 campaign as Super Bowl favorites for the fifth time in the past six seasons, the lone exception being 2022 — a season in which they ultimately won the Super Bowl. Kansas City also has a win total of 11.5 at ESPN BET, marking the Chiefs’ sixth straight season with a preseason double-digit win total, tied for the fourth-longest streak of all time, per ESPN Stats & Information.

Of course, the Chiefs won’t be the only team vying for the Lombardi Trophy. Ten other teams show odds of 20-1 or shorter to win Super Bowl LIX, one of which is the Aaron Rodgers-led New York Jets. The Jets will be looking to break the league’s longest active playoff drought (since 2010) and are -155 favorites to do so.

As in most most years, teams, bettors and bookmakers alike will also have to contend with new rule changes, the most prominent of which this season is an overhaul to kickoffs that could have implications on win totals, among other wagers.

“In the beginning, or at least Week 1, we’re looking at it and seeing what’s going to happen from there,” BetMGM trading manager Christian Cipollini told ESPN. “We’re going to try to react heavily to it as opposed to going in and making a change ahead of time, just because it’s still so unknown.”

Here are some of the most notable betting storylines heading into the 2024 NFL season.

Impact of new kickoff rules

Touchbacks decreased dramatically in the preseason, the first time NFL teams implemented the new kickoff rules, and the average starting field position improved by more than 3 yards. However, scoring was lower than the betting market expected this preseason, with 31 out of 48 games going under the total.

Oddsmakers are taking a wait-and-see approach before making any numbers adjustments related to the kickoffs. The over/under totals for Week 1 are in line with past years, but bookmakers are watching closely for any angles that develop.

“If there’s an advantage, they’ll find it and they’ll play it, and then the market will adjust,” John Murray, executive director of the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, said. “You have to always be on your toes, looking for that sort of thing.”

The new rules require 10 members of the kickoff team to line up on the opponents’ 40-yard line. The receiving team must line up at least nine players on its own 30-yard line. The spot of the kick (the kicking team’s 35-yard line) did not change. All kicks that land inside the receiving team’s 20-yard line and short of the goal line (to be called the “landing area”) must be returned. Touchbacks occur if the ball is kicked out of the end zone or if a player downs a ball that hit inside the landing area and bounced into the end zone. In those scenarios, the ball would be placed on the receiving team’s 30-yard line or 20-yard line, respectively.

Oddsmakers doubt the new rules will impact totals or point spreads for games, but they say some obscure prop bets could be affected, such as the odds on the result of a kickoff ending in a touchback. In the preseason, only 26.9% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks, according to ESPN Stats and Information. Over the past five regular seasons, 63% of kickoffs have resulted in touchbacks. Last season, a record 73% of kickoffs resulted in touchbacks. The NFL said it implemented the new rules to both increase returns and decrease injuries.

Patrick Jay, head of ESPN BET sportsbook, said the odds on a kickoff resulting in a touchback is a popular in-game betting option and believes the new rules will cause kickoff betting markets to “take on a new life.”

“During the 2023 season, the odds for the next kickoff to be a touchback might have traded as short -3000, with odds rarely favoring a receiving team’s chances of initiating a return, “Jay told ESPN. “From a trading perspective, we’re interested to see if the new rules lead to more advantageous field position to start drives, and, in turn, how that translates into scoring opportunities compared to previous seasons.”

The average starting field position in the preseason was the 29-yard line. Over the past five regular seasons, the average starting field position was the 26-yard line, according to ESPN Stats and Information.

Murray questions whether 3 yards of better field position would have a significant impact on the success of drives but is watching to see what happens, especially on the over/under points scored in first and third quarters.

“I guess it’s possible that, when quarters [totals] do go up, we could see people betting the first quarters over,” Murray said. “I don’t know that moving from the 26 [yard line] to the 29 is significant enough to do that.”

What are the odds of a Chiefs three-peat?

With two Super Bowl victories in as many seasons, the Chiefs are already in rarefied air and will cross into unprecedented territory if they can capture a third consecutive Lombardi Trophy. Out of eight previous back-to-back Super Bowl champions, none have successfully completed the three-peat (although, the Green Bay Packers did three-peat as NFL champions two different times prior to the Super Bowl era).

The Chiefs’ future odds to do so this season are directly in line with previous would-be three-peaters, and they’re attracting the fervent betting action to match.

At +500 on ESPN BET, Kansas City’s odds to win Super Bowl LIX are the same as the past two repeat champions entering their potential three-peat season. The 2005 Patriots were tied for the best odds that preseason with the Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles, while the 1999 Denver Broncos actually trailed the Minnesota Vikings (+450) in odds.

The previous three repeat champs — the 1994 Dallas Cowboys (+300), the 1990 San Francisco 49ers (+350) and the 1980 Pittsburgh Steelers (+240) — all showed shorter odds than the Chiefs show this year, and only the Cowboys were second on their odds board (behind the 49ers, who were +200 and ultimately won the title).

But again, none of these teams were able to pull off the three-peat. Still, that hasn’t stopped bettors from going to the window for Kansas City.

“It’s been largely one-way traffic with the Chiefs in terms of betting interest once again,” ESPN BET head of sportsbook Patrick Jay told ESPN.

The book has 17% of its Super Bowl futures handle on the Chiefs, and Patrick Mahomes has 20% of the handle to win MVP.

The Chiefs are also the handle leaders at BetMGM (18.7%), DraftKings (17%) and FanDuel (19%). Unsurprisingly, they lead the AFC Championship markets at all of the books as well.

The action, combined with the last Super Bowl win, saw their championship odds fall incrementally from +750 in January to their current position, per ESPN BET.

Aside from the future liability, Kansas City is sure to be a popular pick week to week as it pursues the elusive third straight Super Bowl.

“The Chiefs, obviously, are going to be a popular selection, and they’re more likely than not going to be a popular selection throughout the entire season,” Cipollini said. “I imagine any game that they’re playing in, we’re going to be rooting for whoever they’re playing against.”

Where’s the money going ahead of the season?

Even if the Chiefs had won only last season’s Super Bowl instead of the past two, the heavy futures action on them wouldn’t be particularly surprising. Cipollini said that the reigning champion tends to take a large portion of money whenever the next season’s future markets go live.

From there, the consensus second-most-popular pick to win the Super Bowl has been the Detroit Lions (+1000), who have attracted 9% of the bets and 12% of the handle on ESPN BET. BetMGM, DraftKings and FanDuel all report similar figures to rank Detroit behind only Kansas City for the most tickets and money.

The Lions are even more popular in the NFC Championship market, where they are taking upward of 30% of the handle at most of the major sportsbooks, with odds around +550. There’s little consensus on who might win the conference from there, with the Chicago Bears, Eagles, Packers, Los Angeles Rams and reigning conference champion 49ers all taking up varying levels of action across the marketplace.

It’s the second season in a row that public support has been behind Detroit after Dan Campbell’s squad first showed a spark during the 2022 season.

“We had way more liability on them last season because they opened up at 40-to-1, 30-to-1, whatever they were. Now at 12-to-1, it’s a much easier pill for the book to swallow,” Cipollini said. “A lot of Michigan bettors for us last season were definitely all over the Lions, and I think they put their division winner tickets or whatever winnings they had from last season right back onto them for this season, because we’re definitely taking a lot of action on them again.”

On the AFC side, the Jets have proven to be a buzzy pick among big-money bettors for conference futures, garnering 24% of handle (more than the Chiefs at 16%) with only 10% of tickets at ESPN BET. FanDuel similarly reports that the Jets have the second-most AFC Championship money (14%, behind the Chiefs at 27%) but the fourth-most tickets.

That said, bettors are less confident that the Rodgers-led squad can win that next game to bring home the franchise’s first title since 1968. New York is not in the top five for Super Bowl futures at any of the major books by number of bets and cracks that fifth spot by handle only at FanDuel.

NFL player props

Heading into the final days of summer, Houston Texans rising superstar C.J. Stroud emerged as the consensus most-popular betting option in the NFL MVP futures market. While this is largely still true — he carries the highest ticket count at most of the major sportsbooks — there are other big-name players with notable action, or lack thereof.

“I feel like it’s kind of died down a little bit, but definitely when we first opened we were getting a lot of Stroud action,” Cipollini said.

Keeping with the heightened interest on the Lions, Jared Goff has garnered some significant action to win the league’s highest individual honor at a decently long +2200, per ESPN BET odds. He’s tied for third with Jalen Hurts (+1300) in DraftKings’ rankings with 8% of the handle, and he is outright third in both bets (9.1%) and money (9.8%) at BetMGM, where he goes down as the book’s biggest liability because of his longer odds than those of other candidates.

“He’s probably the worst result for us right now,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello told ESPN.

Two-time MVP Mahomes is still writing tickets despite being the big favorite at +475 odds. ESPN BET (20%) and BetMGM (12.4%) both report the 28-year-old as their handle leader for the award.

As for reigning MVP Lamar Jackson, neither the odds nor the action have been particularly kind to him. The Baltimore Ravens signal-caller comes into the season with +1600 odds at ESPN BET, tied with Brock Purdy for seventh shortest, and has just the ninth-highest handle at DraftKings (4%) and 13th-highest at BetMGM (2.8%).

Offensive Rookie of the Year has also proven to be a popular, intriguing market. No. 1 draft pick Caleb Williams (+140) is drawing much of the action, taking the most tickets and money at ESPN BET, but some of the other highly touted first-round quarterbacks are garnering even more, in some cases.

Bo Nix (+1000), in particular, has attracted bettor intrigue since winning the starting job in Denver, drawing the most bets at FanDuel (17%), as well as the most tickets (22.1%) and handle (24.6%) at BetMGM. Second pick Jayden Daniels (+500) is also lurking near the top, recording the most money at FanDuel (23%).

As far as non-quarterbacks go, third pick Marvin Harrison Jr. is taking action, as is Malik Nabers, owing to a Giants offseason “Hard Knocks” bump, per Avello.

Of course, these are just a couple of the most popular awards markets among a handful, with even more player-focused futures in multiple stat categories. As legalization spreads and more bettors join the festivities, football season offerings become more widespread from the nation’s sportsbooks.

“We got so much stuff up this year,” Avello said. “The money is coming in, and it’s spread out through all the offerings we have up.”

Source: www.espn.com