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Eric Moody, ESPN
After over 10 years in the financial services industry, here’s my take on insurance: Having insurance is like carrying an umbrella — it might not rain every day, but when it does, you’ll be grateful you’re prepared. This concept applies to fantasy football as well, a game that’s both strategic and unpredictable.
In fantasy, safeguarding your roster against injuries is crucial. Yet, it’s also a balancing act. Holding a backup player can secure your lineup, but it might mean missing out on a breakout star from the waiver wire, such as Puka Nacua last year.
When used wisely, insurance can be a game-changer.
Here are the top 10 running back insurance options available on draft day, as well as some thoughts on how the backfield might look if the starter goes down.
Keep an eye on our fantasy depth charts for updated insurance information and advice throughout the season.
(if Jahmyr Gibbs is out)
The Lions rushed for 2,311 yards in 2023 and led the league with 27 rushing touchdowns. As for Montgomery, he topped Detroit’s rushing stats with 1,015 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 14.8 fantasy points per game. When healthy, the Lions’ offensive line was one of the best in the league last season, and that trend should continue.
Looking ahead to 2024, the Lions’ backfield is expected to remain unchanged. It’s a two-back system featuring second-year player Gibbs, who racked up 1,261 total yards and 11 touchdowns in 2023, alongside Montgomery.
While it’s still uncertain if Gibbs will see a larger workload in 2024, one thing is clear: if either player misses time due to injury, the other will be on the RB1 radar.
(if Bijan Robinson is out)
The only other teams that averaged more rushing attempts per game than the Falcons (30.7) last season were the Buffalo Bills (30.8), Chicago Bears (31.4) and the Baltimore Ravens (31.5). Head coach Arthur Smith has been replaced by Raheem Morris, who has tapped Zac Robinson as his offensive coordinator. This change should bring more balance to the Falcons’ offense, especially with Kirk Cousins under center.
It’s expected that Robinson will be the focal point of the running game. However, don’t forget about Allgeier. He finished with 876 total yards last season and had only 28 fewer rushing attempts than Robinson. The Falcons also boast a formidable offensive line, with all five starters returning.
Allgeier is someone to target in the double-digit rounds. If Robinson were to miss time, the Falcons would lean heavily on Allgeier, especially with Jase McClellan and Avery Williams being the only other running backs on the roster. Allgeier would be in the RB2 mix.
(if Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane is out)
The Dolphins had one of the league’s most explosive offenses last season, ranking third in total yards and points per game under head coach and playcaller Mike McDaniel. Mostert led the league in rushing touchdowns (18) and surpassed 200 rushing attempts and 1,000 rushing yards for the first time, but he’s getting up there in age (32). Meanwhile, Achane led the league in rushing yards per carry (7.8) among those with a minimum of 100 attempts. Durability is a legitimate concern for both Mostert and Achane, which makes Wright intriguing late in fantasy drafts.
Wright averaged 7.4 rushing yards per carry last season at the University of Tennessee and ran the 40-yard dash in 4.38 seconds. The rookie is also a very capable receiver out of the backfield. However, there are a lot of uncertainties for the Dolphins’ offensive line, following the departure of key players from last season. Despite Mostert’s intriguing value in fantasy drafts, Wright has league-winning potential, especially if Mostert’s workload declines throughout the season.
(if Kyren Williams is out)
Rams head coach Sean McVay isn’t a fan of a two-back system, as we’ve seen with Todd Gurley and more recently with Williams. Williams didn’t play much as a rookie in 2022, but he shined as a starter last season. In his 12 games, he averaged nearly 22 touches, racking up 1,350 total yards and 15 touchdowns. This provides a glimpse of what Corum could bring to the table if Williams misses time. Corum would be firmly on the RB2 radar.
The rookie proved he could handle a large workload during his final season at Michigan, where he rushed for 1,245 yards and 27 touchdowns on 258 attempts. The Rams boast one of the biggest and most physical offensive lines in the league, with adequate depth. Last season, Los Angeles ranked 11th in rushing yards per game.
Corum is worth a late-round pick in most leagues.
(if Josh Jacobs is out)
Signed in free agency, Jacobs is coming off a disappointing season in which he had career lows in rushing yards, touchdowns and yards per attempt. He will replace Aaron Jones, who has averaged 15.5 touches per game over the past three seasons. Lloyd, selected in the third round of the draft, boasts rare breakaway speed for a 220-pound back and has rushed for 10 or more yards on 21% of his collegiate attempts. Last season, he averaged an impressive 7.1 yards per attempt for the USC Trojans.
Lloyd is expected to complement Jacobs as a change-of-pace, receiving back who can explode for big runs behind a Packers offensive line that has plenty of experienced starters and adequate depth this season. Head coach Matt LaFleur has a history of relying on a two-back system, which bodes well for both Jacobs and Lloyd.
Green Bay signed AJ Dillon to a one-year deal. Unfortunately, Dillon was underwhelming last season when Jones was out with injuries and has turned the football over eight times in three seasons. You’ll want to stash Lloyd on your bench.
(if James Conner is out)
Benson has the skill set of a three-down back, which is why the Cardinals selected him in the third round of the draft. He should start the season as Conner’s backup and is poised to eventually take over the starting role.
Conner has averaged 17.1 touches per game for the Cardinals during the past three seasons. Given his age and injury history, this provides a glimpse of the usage Benson could see if Conner misses time.
Cardinals offensive coordinator Drew Petzing is expected to run a two-back system with Conner and Benson. However, it’s worth mentioning that Conner is heading into the final year of his contract. The Cardinals’ offensive line is average, which is something else managers should consider. Benson is playing behind one of the oldest starting running backs in the league, and he could pay huge dividends if given the opportunity to shine.
(if Kenneth Walker III is out)
Charbonnet (141) and Walker III (248) combined for 389 total touches last season. Charbonnet finished with 671 total yards. The Seahawks ranked 16th in rushing yards per attempt last season. Now, with a new head coach in Mike Macdonald and offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb, fantasy managers should expect a two-back system in Seattle.
Last season, Charbonnet and Walker III had a 50-50 split in touches, but our projections suggest it will be more like 60-40 this year, with Walker III having the slight advantage. If either were to miss time, the other would fill the void, especially since the Seahawks didn’t add any substantial pieces to their backfield this offseason.
However, it’s important to note that Seattle could have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, particularly on the interior. Despite these offensive line woes, don’t overlook Charbonnet late in your fantasy drafts. He’d be a volume-based RB2 if Walker were out.
(if Najee Harris is out)
The Steelers’ backfield resembles that of the Titans. Warren and Harris share similar average draft positions and are both in a committee under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, who employed a similar approach in Atlanta last season with Robinson and Allgeier. Warren is the player you should target, and here’s why: Pittsburgh declined Harris’ fifth-year option for the 2025 season, making him a free agent after this year. Harris saw reduced usage in Pittsburgh last season, whereas Warren’s role expanded. Warren achieved career highs in rushing yards (784) and receiving yards (370) and is a more explosive and effective runner than Harris.
Furthermore, the Steelers made substantial investments in their offensive line, particularly at tackle and center, in this year’s draft. These picks are expected to yield immediate improvements, especially considering the stellar performance of their guards last season. If Harris were to miss time, Smith would likely heavily rely on Warren, with Cordarrelle Patterson backing them up on the depth chart.
(if Zack Moss is out)
Brown showed flashes of explosiveness during his rookie season, gaining 10 or more yards on 9.0% of his 44 rushing attempts and proving excellent as a receiver out of the backfield. The Bengals have moved on from Joe Mixon, who averaged 19.1 touches per game, and signed Moss this offseason. With new offensive coordinator Dan Pitcher likely implementing a committee approach, Brown’s versatility will be important to managers. He’s a smart insurance play behind Moss.
Last season, the Bengals ranked 32nd in rushing yards per game. However, with Cincinnati’s improved offensive line and Joe Burrow back under center, we can expect significant improvement in this statistical area. If Moss were to miss time, Brown would likely lead the Bengals’ committee, which would also include Trayveon Williams or Chris Evans.
(if Tony Pollard is out)
The Titans’ running game will undergo significant changes with Pollard replacing Derrick Henry. Tennessee also has a new head coach in Brian Callahan and offensive coordinator in Nick Holz. Pollard was heavily pursued by the Titans this offseason but struggled last season as the Dallas Cowboys‘ lead back, averaging 4.0 yards per rushing attempt. However, he was productive as a receiver out of the backfield.
Our projections suggest that Holz will implement a two-back committee, but Spears is who you should target, even with both players having a similar average draft position. Spears finished with the ninth-most targets among backs, accumulating 838 total yards on 152 touches in an impressive rookie season. This is crucial because the Titans had one of the league’s weakest offensive lines last season. And while they made improvements on paper this offseason, we’ll need to see that translate onto the field. Spears is firmly on the flex radar with Pollard, but his fantasy ceiling is even higher without him.
Other notables:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs (if Isiah Pacheco is out)
Rico Dowdle, Cowboys (if Ezekiel Elliott is out)
Antonio Gibson, New England Patriots (if Rhamondre Stevenson is out)
Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco 49ers (if Christian McCaffrey is out)
Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings (if Aaron Jones is out)
Austin Ekeler, Washington Commanders (if Brian Robinson Jr. is out)
Ray Davis, Bills (if James Cook is out)
Source: www.espn.com