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Mike Clay, ESPN Senior Writer
It’s one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
“Who is this year’s
It’s not a simple question to answer because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall have!
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2023’s top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar profile as they enter 2024. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
Note that this is not my way of definitively predicting that these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it’s simply the players positioned to do so as a product of landing in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
This season’s Sam LaPorta: TE Brock Bowers
LaPorta achieved the rare feat of strong TE1 production as a rookie.
Not only did LaPorta have a strong rookie season, he paced all tight ends in fantasy points. Bowers is a long shot to reach that milestone and, to be quite honest, even reaching the top 10 will be tough (LaPorta, Evan Engram and Kyle Pitts have delivered the only top-10 fantasy campaigns by a rookie TE over the past decade).
Still, if anyone in this rookie TE class can get there, it’s No. 13 pick Bowers. The Georgia product is an elite prospect with terrific speed, hands, route running and RAC ability. He caught at least 56 passes in all three collegiate seasons and scored 26 TDs in 40 games. Bowers will immediately operate as one of Las Vegas’ top offensive targets.
This season’s C.J. Stroud: QB Caleb Williams
A big passing season led Stroud to a QB1 fantasy campaign as a rookie.
Stroud defied the odds, posting only the third top-12 fantasy campaign by a first-round rookie QB over the past decade (Kyler Murray and Justin Herbert were the others). Only three first-round QBs reached 4,000 pass yards and two hit 25 pass TDs, which shows how tough it is for even the best prospects to put up big numbers with their arms in Year 1.
Despite the tough odds, first overall pick Williams has as good a shot as any rookie QB we’ve seen on the field. The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner is stepping into a loaded offense that features perhaps the league’s best WR room (DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze) and he has the ability to add all-important fantasy value with his legs (206 carries, 1,586 yards, 27 TDs in college).
Other candidates: Drake Maye, J.J. McCarthy, Bo Nix
This season’s Puka Nacua: WR Troy Franklin
Nacua was a Day 3 rookie who quickly emerged as a featured target and fantasy starter.
You know I had to go here, but let’s be honest: Puka Nacua 2.0 is an extreme long shot. Over the past decade, Nacua is the only rookie WR not selected in the first three rounds to post a top-15 fantasy campaign. In fact, only three others even managed a top-45 season (Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Darius Slayton).
Though I don’t have the guts to predict a season as good as what Nacua delivered, there are some Day 3 rookies in a good spot for Year 1 production. Franklin comes to mind, as the Oregon product is — much like Nacua — joining a WR room with a good No. 1 (Courtland Sutton) but underwhelming competition otherwise (Marvin Mims, Tim Patrick, Josh Reynolds). Franklin posted an impressive 81 catches, 1,383 yards and 14 TDs in 2023, and his 45% air yard share was tops in this year’s rookie class. Deep-leaguers should consider him with a late pick.
Other candidates: Devontez Walker, Javon Baker, Bub Means
This season’s Breece Hall/Rachaad White: RB Tyjae Spears
Hall and White were Year 2 breakout RBs who saw heavy volume and quickly emerged as lineup locks.
Hall and White both finished as top-five fantasy backs and, while that might be a tough ask for Spears, it’s possible. The 2023 third-round pick out-snapped future Hall of Famer Derrick Henry in eight games as a rookie and, while he was limited as a rusher (100 carries), he was a major factor in the passing game (top 12 among RBs in targets, receptions and receiving yards).
Spears will have a new running mate this season, with Henry out and Tony Pollard in. The former Cowboys lead back will have a role, but the extent of it is to be determined after he thrived as a rotational back during 2019-22 but struggled as a feature back in 2023. If Spears was able to produce with Henry in the mix, it stands to reason he should see more work and deliver more fantasy production with the inferior Pollard as his competition.
Other candidates: Kendre Miller, Chase Brown, Eric Gray, Roschon Johnson
This season’s Kyren Williams: RB Zamir White
Williams took ownership of a featured back role and turned big volume into an elite fantasy season.
Whereas it took Williams only one game to run away from Cam Akers as the Rams’ lead back, you could make the case that White claimed the job in Las Vegas late last season. With Josh Jacobs sidelined for four games, White delivered four consecutive top-20 fantasy outings. He was 11th among RBs despite scoring only one TD during the span. He averaged 21.0 carries and 3.3 targets per game during those four weeks, which is strikingly similar to Williams’ 19.0 carries and 4.0 targets per game averages last season.
With Jacobs in Green Bay, White’s main competition for touches include newcomer Alexander Mattison (who stumbled in a lead-back role in Minnesota last season) and passing-down specialist Ameer Abdullah. If the 24-year-old proves the real deal, an RB1 campaign is on the table.
Other candidates: Tyjae Spears, Zack Moss, J.K. Dobbins
This season’s Anthony Richardson: QB Jayden Daniels
Richardson used his legs to provide high-end fantasy numbers as a rookie.
This comparison relates, of course, to the rushing-fueled elite fantasy output provided by Richardson, not his injury struggles (four games played). Like Richardson, Daniels has the athleticism to put up big-time numbers with his legs. The LSU product posted a 113-1,230-10 rushing line last season, which works out to 10.9 yards per carry. Daniels also enters the league having delivered an elite passing season, with 40 passing TDs to only four INTs as well as class-best marks in YPA (11.7) and total QBR (95.6) during his Heisman campaign in 2023.
Daniels will be the Week 1 starter in Washington and will benefit from coordinator Kliff Kingsbury’s fast-paced offense and a solid group of targets led by Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson and Austin Ekeler.
Other candidate: Drake Maye
This season’s Raheem Mostert: RB Gus Edwards
Mostert was a committee back who was fantasy relevant due to massive TD output.
I’m not sure anyone is more conservative with touchdown projections (or talks about TD regression to the mean) more than me, but that doesn’t mean I’m not aware of players who could be sneaky bets to defy the odds and post a hefty TD rate. Mostert (21 TDs on 234 touches) did exactly that in 2023, and perhaps Edwards can follow suit as the leader of a projected committee backfield for the Chargers.
Like Mostert, Edwards is a veteran back (29) who has been very efficient as a rusher since entering the league (4.86 career YPC). He’s also not much as a factor as a receiver (39 career targets) but has good size (6-foot-1, 238 pounds), which led to big usage at the goal line in 2023. Edwards led all backs with 19 carries inside opponents’ 5-yard line, which helped him to 13 TDs (third-most). Frank Gore (at age 29 and 30) delivered two nine-TD seasons during the Jim Harbaugh era in San Francisco, so perhaps Edwards can do so as well.
Other candidate: Jaylen Wright
This season’s Nico Collins: WR Drake London
After a slow start to his career, Collins emerged as a fantasy star following a QB upgrade.
Collins showed flashes during his first two NFL seasons, and while the 2021 third-rounder’s output wasn’t nearly as good as what London has delivered in his first two seasons, there’s no doubt that both were limited statistically by QB play. Things changed for Collins with Stroud in the mix in Houston last season, and London figures to follow a similar trajectory with Kirk Cousins under center in Atlanta this season.
London has a hefty 26% target share since he was drafted, but because of Atlanta’s run-heavy, QB-deficient offenses, he finished outside the top 20 in targets, receptions, yards and TDs in both seasons. In an offense led by Zac Robinson (instead of Arthur Smith) and with Cousins under center, a 26% share in 2024 would launch London (the first WR picked in the 2022 draft) into the WR1 mix.
Other candidates: George Pickens, Jerry Jeudy
This season’s Trey McBride: TE Ben Sinnott
McBride was a recent second-round pick who, after a slow start, finally overtook Zach Ertz en route to big-time fantasy output.
It took McBride, the first tight end drafted in 2022, a season and a half to overtake Ertz, but if things go well for Sinnott, the Kansas State product should clear 33-year-old Ertz sometime this season. The second-rounder (6-foot-4, 250 pounds) showed well athletically at the combine (class-best vertical, broad and three-cone) and paced this class with a 9.2-yard average depth of target in three collegiate seasons. Expect a slow start, but if Sinnott lives up to his draft status, he could rise as high as third (or perhaps even second) on the team in target share in the second half of the season.
Other candidates: Theo Johnson, Ja’Tavion Sanders, Erick All Jr.
This season’s Rashee Rice: WR Keon Coleman
Rice emerged into a fantasy asset in a weak WR room on a good offense.
Same as Rice, Coleman joins the league as a second-round pick and is an intriguing prospect thanks to a favorable landing spot. Buffalo said goodbye to top receivers Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis during the offseason, replacing the duo with Coleman and journeymen Curtis Samuel, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mack Hollins and Chase Claypool. Former fifth-round pick Khalil Shakir will also be a factor, but all in all, this is not an intimidating group.
A slow start for Coleman is reasonable to expect (he turned 21 in May), but he’s a big, strong receiver with big-play ability and a smooth path to a No. 1 gig in an offense led by Josh Allen. We shouldn’t be surprised if he quickly emerges as a lineup lock.
Other candidates: Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey
This season’s Jordan Love/Brock Purdy: QB Bryce Young
Love and Purdy were young QBs who recorded their first QB1 fantasy campaigns.
Targeting second-year quarterbacks (specifically ones drafted in the first round) is one of my favorite pastimes. It doesn’t always work out (2023 Kenny Pickett), but it usually does.
Consider the following names: Carson Wentz in 2017, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in 2018, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen in 2019, Kyler Murray in 2020, Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow in 2021, and Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields in 2022.
None of the 10 quarterbacks I just listed finished better than eighth in fantasy points as a rookie (only Murray and Herbert were even top 20), but all 10 finished eighth or better in Year 2.
Young had a tough rookie season in large part due to a weak supporting cast (his efficiency when throwing to Adam Thielen was solid, but it was horrific to everyone else) and a midseason coaching change. This season, he’ll have better targets (Diontae Johnson, Xavier Legette and Jonathon Brooks were added) and a new, offensive-minded coach in Dave Canales, who is fresh off leading Baker Mayfield to his best season. Young shouldn’t be overlooked as a late-round flier.
Other candidate: Will Levis
Source: www.espn.com