Daily Spotlight: Strong First Half Bodes Well For Year

Summary

Equity investors enjoyed the first half of 2024, as the S&P 500 logged a double-digit gain. Historically, that type of performance has been a precursor to further increases in stocks by the end of the year. Our study of seasonal stock market returns identified 16 first-half periods since 1980 during which the S&P 500 rose at least 10% (in fact, the average gain was 15.8%). The average S&P 500 return in the second half of those years was 7.3%. How do these compare against the overall averages? Well, for all years, first-half gains averaged 5.2% and second-half gains averaged 4.9%. So not bad. Going back to our double-digit first half years, the best performance came in 1986, when the market roared out of the starting gate and soared 25.5%. The best second half from that group was in 2012, when the S&P 500 tacked on another 17%. Still, there are no guarantees that stocks will continue to climb in the second half. In three of the 16 years, the S&P 500 lost ground, for a winning percentage of 81% — which isn’t bad. One of those years reall