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Liz Loza, ESPN
Change: It’s inevitable. And in the NFL, it’s constant. From roster shakeups to coaching carousels to offensive overhauls, the churn is real. Let’s catch you up on the most impactful fantasy football news of the offseason.
New era in New England
Jerod Mayo will have an opportunity to redefine the “Patriot Way,” replacing Bill Belichick as the team’s head coach after 24 years. Mayo will look to new offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt and No. 3 overall pick Drake Maye to reinvigorate the offense. New England’s depth chart is far from stacked, though rookie WR Ja’Lynn Polk projects as a later-round investment and could provide fantasy value down the stretch.
Meanwhile, Rhamondre Stevenson remains the team’s primary ball carrier. With Van Pelt likely to install a run-heavy scheme (similar to the one he ran in Cleveland), Stevenson figures to touch the ball 15 to 17 times per game, offering managers top-20 positional appeal.
(Semi) shakeup in Seattle
Pete Carroll served as the Seahawks’ head coach for 14 seasons. In his stead, the organization tapped Mike Macdonald to captain the squad while calling up former Washington Huskies OC Ryan Grubb to design an offensive playbook. On the heels of such a substantial change, it was assumed the new regime would implement a number of roster tweaks. Instead, the fresh-faced coaching staff chose to run it back with many of Seattle’s most-tenured players.
DK Metcalf returns as the most valuable fantasy asset, capable of delivering high-end WR2 numbers. Second-year receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba presents breakout appeal, though he’ll compete for looks with Tyler Lockett and TE Noah Fant. JSN and Lockett figure to teeter on the WR3/WR4 bubble with the younger player’s upside being baked into his slightly higher ADP. Finally, Kenneth Walker III could cede touches to Zach Charbonnet, but remains a decent RB2 option for fantasy purposes.
Jim Harbaugh recharges in L.A.
Los Angeles hit the restart button at head coach for the fourth time in just over 10 years, signing Harbaugh to a five-year contract worth an estimated $16 million annually. Upon coming to terms with Harbaugh, the Bolts cleaned house, forcing the exits of WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler and TE Gerald Everett.
The team spent an early second-round pick on WR Ladd McConkey while bolstering the backfield with the likes of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards and adding depth at TE with Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst via free agency. L.A.’s revamped offensive line should help buy Justin Herbert time in the pocket. However, between a dearth of tested pass-catching options and noting OC Greg Roman’s run-heavy approach, Herbert’s days as a top-10 fantasy QB appear (momentarily) in the rearview.
Bears force a rebrand
The “Monsters of the Midway” will always remain synonymous with Chicago. But general manager Ryan Poles appears to be dragging the team into the future and attempting to “Push for the Pass.” Promptly closing the chapter on the Justin Fields era, Chicago spent early-first-round selections on QB Caleb Williams and WR Rome Odunze.
It’s not the first time the Bears have used a first-round pick on a burgeoning signal-caller. It could be argued, however, this the first time (in a long time) the Bears have attempted to actually build around said quarterback. Prior to the draft, the organization also utilized the free-agency period, adding WR Keenan Allen, RB D’Andre Swift and TE Gerald Everett. While the success of these efforts and additions has yet to be tested, at least on paper, the Bears are in possession of the team’s most potent passing attack in 50-plus years.
If all goes well (and that is a big if, given the club’s history), Williams could deliver top-15 fantasy numbers in his rookie campaign. DJ Moore figures to remain the corps’ target leader, likely to deliver a second consecutive 1,000-yard receiving effort. Allen should draw a similar number of looks to Moore, potentially flirting with 80 grabs in his Windy City debut. Odunze will round out the trio of receivers, offering mid-round upside and oodles of flex potential. Swift’s volume seems more murky, however, as he’ll join Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson in the backfield. Coming off a career season, the former Eagle’s numbers figure to regress, but Swift’s ability as a pass-catcher keeps him on the RB2/3 bubble.
Washington implements commanding offensive changes
The Commanders spent 2023 seeing what they had in Sam Howell … and decided it wasn’t enough. After registering a 4-13 record, the new front office continued house cleaning, revamping the coaching staff and anointing a new face of the franchise.
Quarterback Jayden Daniels, whose playing style is similar to Kyler Murray‘s, is an intriguing fit for Kliff Kingsbury’s offense. Expect the Commanders’ OC to employ plenty of spread passing elements, which should help the 23-year-old’s transition to the pros. With Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson leading the receiving corps and Austin Ekeler catching passes out of the backfield, Daniels slides into a sneaky-productive situation. Add in his elite rushing instincts and the rookie could potentially thrive as a QB2 in superflex formats as early as Year 1.
While Daniels lands in a favorable situation, his surrounding talent may not be so lucky, at least initially. McLaurin has been saddled with instability under center for the bulk of his career. Regardless, he’s cleared 1,000 receiving yards for four consecutive campaigns and should draw upwards of 130 looks again in 2024. Dotson is expected to function as the team’s No. 2 receiver and could manage the breakout he failed to post last season, but he is largely ranked outside of the top-60 fantasy wideouts. Ekeler and Brian Robinson Jr. figure to share snaps, working in a complementary fashion. Both backs offer managers high-end RB3 potential.
Buffalo bids farewell to big names
The Bills made a number of decisive moves this offseason, sometimes leaving fans a bit baffled. While Gabe Davis‘ departure and Damien Harris‘ retirement weren’t terribly surprising, the Stefon Diggs trade created considerable consternation. This anxiety only seemed to increase after the Bills traded down twice in the first round of April’s draft, passing on buzzy receiving talent in the process. Ultimately, the Bills selected WR Keon Coleman with the 33rd overall pick.
A former basketball standout who played briefly for Tom Izzo at Michigan State, Coleman is in possession of size (6-foot-3, 213 pounds) and hops. He has incredible ball skills, and he regularly climbed the ladder to make circus catches during his college career. An X receiver with downfield ability, Coleman figures to emerge as Josh Allen‘s primary target, likely drawing upwards of 100 targets in his first pro season.
Kirk set to captain a new offense … for now
Kirk Cousins averaged just north of 20 fantasy points per game during the first month of the 2023 season, before Justin Jefferson was sidelined (hamstring). His productivity dipped slightly over the next four weeks (17.3 points per game) before he tore an Achilles in Week 8. The 35-year-old tested the free-agent market, ultimately securing a four-year deal worth an eye-popping $180 million with the Falcons. Cousins’ celebration was cut short, however, when Atlanta reportedly “blindsided” the QB by selecting Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in April’s draft.
Assuming a full recovery, Cousins remains atop the Falcons’ depth chart and should start the season as the team’s QB1. There exists considerable optimism that the four-time Pro Bowler — along with new offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, who gained experience under Sean McVay in Los Angeles — will unlock the first-round potential of Drake London and Kyle Pitts. Both pass-catchers project as low-end fantasy starters at their respective positions (WR13 and TE9). Bijan Robinson rounds out the trio of young stars and is expected to begin his sophomore season as a late-first-round pick in fantasy drafts.
Derrick Henry brings charm to a new city
Henry addressed Titans fans in early January, transparent about his relationship with the club and plans for the future. Fantasy’s favorite anomaly inked a two-year deal with Baltimore just two months later. While a player of Henry’s stature doesn’t normally fly, he absolutely could as a member of the Ravens Flock.
A perennial top-10 producer who has cleared at least 12 fantasy points per game every year since 2018, Henry has continued to evade tackles and rip off big runs. At 30 years old and with more than 2,000 carries to his name, durability is an obvious concern. Still, Todd Monken’s run-aggressive offense and the Ravens’ solid O-line should both work in the vet’s favor. Assuming he stays healthy, Henry is in line for double-digit scores and top-12 RB consideration in Baltimore.
Saquon Barkley brings the Hurt(s) to Philly’s backfield
Barkley served as the Giants’ offensive engine, motoring his way to 1,489 total touches during his six seasons in New York. That volume buoyed Barkley’s fantasy stock, as he managed nearly 16 fantasy points per game (RB13) despite averaging 3.9 yards per carry in 2023.
While the 27-year-old may be entering a new phase of his career, Barkley should continue to rip off long runs (he was tied for sixth among RBs with seven rushes of 20-plus yards in 2023) and evade tackles while working behind a much better offensive line in Philadelphia. With D’Andre Swift now in Chicago, Barkley’s work in the passing game is likely to remain stable as he figures to (once again) average around three catches per contest. Any potential hit to Barkley’s overall workload will be outweighed by an increase in efficiency given the explosiveness of the Eagles’ offense. He remains a solid RB1 for fantasy purposes in 2024.
Calvin Ridley cashes in on shallow FA market
Arguably the most sought-after wide receiver in this year’s free-agent class, Ridley opted to leave Jacksonville, landing in Tennessee on a four-year deal reportedly worth $92 million. The 29-year-old, who returned to the field after missing the 2022 season due to a suspension, put together an up-and-down effort in 2023, managing six games of more than 20 fantasy points and nine outings below 10 fantasy points. Interestingly, two of his best showings (in which he recorded at least six catches and cleared 100 yards) came against his new team.
Ridley figures to work as a complement to DeAndre Hopkins, who is likely to find himself open more regularly next season. The new addition also puts a lid on the idea of a Treylon Burks breakout. The length and cost of Ridley’s contract (along with the Tony Pollard signing) does, however, signal an investment in second-year QB Will Levis. Led by new head coach Brian Callahan, the new-look Titans appear to be taking an aerial approach to the offense. That should further work in Ridley’s favor. He should be considered a low-end WR2 in fantasy with plenty of upside.
Source: www.espn.com