Fantasy baseball: How will Astros’ Joey Loperfido fare in debut?

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Astronomical minor league stats

The Houston Astros remain in last place in the AL West heading into Tuesday’s game against Cleveland, even behind the Athletics. While pitching (4.92 ERA) has been a bigger problem than the offense, here comes a jolt of energy in the form of slugger Joey Loperfido, leading the minor leagues with 13 home runs in 25 games (with 28 RBI, 31 runs) for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido, a left-handed hitter who was a seventh-round pick in the 2021 draft from Duke, is slugging .713 (1.106 OPS) and expected to earn promotion Tuesday.

Veteran first baseman Jose Abreu, of course, is not slugging anywhere near .713 – he has one extra-base hit in 77 PA, and he is “hitting” .099/.156/.113 – so it seems likely Loperfido will slot into first base. Abreu, 37, has arguably been the worst position player in baseball this season, supplying a minus-1.6 WAR. Alas, Loperfido, 24, cannot slot in as the team’s No. 4 starter, too, but hey, perhaps the Astros can outscore more teams. They scored 20 runs in two games against the pathetic Rockies in the rarified air of Mexico City this past weekend.

Loperfido, due to his gaudy numbers, is one of the most added prospects in ESPN standard leagues, up 4.5% over the past seven days to 5.6%, and this number will precipitously rise in the coming days. He played 21 games at second base last season and carries valuable OF/2B fantasy eligibility, so slide him into that infield position, though the Astros are set there with Jose Altuve. Loperfido may remind some of Cubs OF/1B Cody Bellinger, another tall, rangy, left-handed slugger who excels in center field and at first base, as Loperfido has this season. Loperfido is also 5-for-5 on stolen base attempts. The Astros could play Loperfido in center field, too, giving 1B Jon Singleton — or Abreu — more chances.

The Astros send RHP Hunter Brown to the mound Tuesday against RHP Carlos Carrasco, making potential bettors check the over/under on runs. This should favor the Astros, as Carrasco, 37, has yet to deliver a quality start among his five chances, though Brown, one of the top pitching prospects in the game a year ago, has achieved this only once in 2024. Brown’s 9.68 ERA and 2.49 WHIP are a bit misleading, with most of the damage coming in a frightful first inning at Kansas City on April 11, when he permitted an MLB-record 11 hits (and nine runs) without escaping the first inning. In his other four starts, Brown has a 5.29 ERA. It’s not good, but more palatable.

Everything else you need to know for Tuesday

• Boston Red Sox SS Vaughn Grissom is expected to come off the injured list for Tuesday’s home game with the Giants. Grissom, yet to debut this season due to a hamstring injury, had four hits for Triple-A Worcester on Sunday, and he should slide right into Boston’s second base slot, likely near the bottom of the lineup versus right-handed pitching. Grissom, 23, hit .287 over 236 PA for Atlanta over the past two seasons, and he hit better than .300 in each of the past three minor league seasons. He is available in more than 80% of ESPN standard leagues.

• Atlanta RHP Reynaldo Lopez brings his remarkable, league-leading 0.72 ERA to Seattle to face Mariners ace Luis Castillo in one of the later games of the day. Lopez has supplied six or more innings in each of his four outings, and he has permitted only two earned runs, though he was won only twice. Sure, Lopez has been a bit fortunate with a .218 BABIP, one of the best among starting pitchers, but a 26.1% strikeout rate shines. Fantasy managers should stop worrying about what happens in August/September, since Lopez last pitched 70 innings in a season in 2019. Things are great today! Enjoy it against a Mariners lineup near the bottom with 3.7 runs scored per game.

• The Rockies head to Miami for a matchup of last-place teams, and Colorado’s outfield situation warrants attention. Nolan Jones, one of only five players to hit at least .290 with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases a year ago, is hitting .170 this season with one home run and two steals. He left Sunday’s loss with back stiffness, after missing a pair of games earlier in the week. It is possible Jones, down to 52.2% rostered, needs an injured list stint. The Rockies recently promoted OF/1B Hunter Goodman and OF Sean Bouchard. Each produced excellent numbers at Triple-A. We don’t often recommend Rockies hitters for road games – and we’re not doing it here, either! – but watch how this situation evolves.

Starting pitcher rankings for Tuesday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Rhys Hoskins (MIL, 1B — 37%) vs. Tyler Alexander

• Joc Pederson (ARI, LF — 4%) vs. Landon Knack

• Michael Conforto (SF, RF — 47%) at Cooper Criswell

• Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF — 21%) at Jack Flaherty

• Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B — 32%) vs. Nestor Cortes

• Max Kepler (MIN, RF — 7%) at Michael Soroka

• Eloy Jimenez (CHW, DH — 25%) vs. Simeon Woods Richardson

• Alex Verdugo (NYY, RF — 19%) at Dean Kremer

• Tommy Pham (CHW, LF — 1%) vs. Woods Richardson

• Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B — 19%) at Flaherty

Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Tuesday

• Michael Busch (CHC, 3B — 65%) at Sean Manaea

• Randy Arozarena (TB, LF — 85%) at Freddy Peralta

• Colton Cowser (BAL, RF — 65%) vs. Cortes

• Cal Raleigh (SEA, C — 72%) vs. Reynaldo Lopez

• Marcell Ozuna (ATL, DH — 95%) at Luis Castillo

• Ian Happ (CHC, LF — 77%) at Manaea

• Isaac Paredes (TB, 3B — 83%) at Peralta

• Oneil Cruz (PIT, SS — 56%) at Alex Wood

• Austin Riley (ATL, 3B — 99%) at Castillo

• Tyler O’Neill (BOS, LF — 69%) vs. Logan Webb

Source: www.espn.com