Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday’s MLB games

Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior WriterApr 10, 2024, 11:35 AM ET
Close
- ESPN contributor on TV, radio, podcasts, blogs, Magazine
- Charter member of FSWA Hall of Fame
- Author of “The Best Philadelphia Sports Arguments”

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Keeping up with Jones

Who had the Pittsburgh Pirates starting their season with nine wins in 12 games? Probably not many, since the Pirates lost 86 games last season and their most recent winning season came in 2018. The Pirates start a four-game set with their Pennsylvania brethren — who are not off to a great start, yet again — and hard-throwing rookie RHP Jared Jones makes his third start.

Jones, 22, relying mainly on a four-seam fastball that touches triple-digits and a nasty slider, has struck out 17 of 48 Marlins and Orioles faced in 11 2/3 innings, showing excellent control (only two walks) and permitting a paltry .200 batting average. The Phillies are struggling to make hard contact, especially versus fastballs. Jones is among the most-added pitchers in ESPN standard leagues, but still available in 65% of them.

Perhaps the most surprising aspect of Pittsburgh’s start is the offense, which averaged 4.27 runs per game last season (22nd in baseball), but enters Thursday at a bountiful 5.75 runs, led by OF Bryan Reynolds and left-side IFs Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes. Platoon OF Edward Olivares leads with three home runs, and the Phillies throw left-handers Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez the first two games of the series. The Pirates boast an .865 OPS versus left-handed pitchers.

Keep an eye on the Pittsburgh bullpen, as reliable closer David Bednar wasn’t so reliable in Wednesday’s disturbing loss to the Royals, permitting four runs in the ninth inning, as his ERA rose to 12.46. Bednar, who may still be battling a lat injury that hampered his spring buildup, has permitted runs in three of five outings. He hit two Royals in his one-third of an inning. LHP Aroldis Chapman, with 322 career saves and with nary a base hit allowed to 14 batters faced so far, lurks as a replacement.

Everything else you need to know for Thursday

As with most Thursdays, the schedule is rather light and five of the seven games are scheduled for the daytime hours, with Mets-Braves opening the proceedings at 12:20 p.m. ET. Atlanta sends LHP Max Fried and his 18.00 ERA to the mound, with nine of his 10 earned runs allowed coming in the first inning against the Phillies and Diamondbacks. The team claims Fried is healthy, and he better be with RHP Spencer Strider out indefinitely. Fantasy managers have largely stuck with Fried, as he remains rostered in 94.6% of ESPN standard leagues, but a scoreless first frame would be nice.
The last of two night games on the schedule is Game 2 of the Jackson Holliday era, the Orioles vs. Red Sox in Fenway Park. It may also end up known as the Grayson Rodriguez era, as the young right-hander seeks his third victory in as many chances. Rodriguez has fanned 16 Pirates and Angels in his 12 1/3 innings, with each of the three runs permitted coming on solo home runs. Rodriguez posted a 4.35 ERA over 122 innings as a rookie. His current ERA is nearly half that mark, even though his fastball velocity is down from 97.4 mph to 96.3. Rodriguez is handling left-handed hitters with his curveball, which he is throwing twice as much as last season.
The top pitching matchup of the day looks like Twins-Tigers (how often have we said that in recent seasons?), with RHP Pablo Lopez facing LHP Tarik Skubal. Each is rostered in nearly every ESPN league, for good reason. Lopez whiffed 234 hitters last season. Skubal posted a 1.25 ERA over his final six starts of 2023. Each ace is off to a solid start this season, and this is not the game to look for streaming hitters. No current Tigers have homered off Lopez. Byron Buxton has two home runs off Skubal in six at-bats, with three strikeouts. Expect a pitcher’s duel here.

It’s not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!

Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team’s bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.