Betting tips for the 2024 MLB season: futures

There are betting opportunities galore with baseball season upon us, especially when it comes to the vast array of futures out there for your wagering pleasure. Be it which team is going to win it all in the fall or which players get to take home the hardware for top individual honors, there is likely to be a prop of some sort for your consideration.

Without further ado, here are our best bets from Tyler Fulghum, David Schoenfield, Eric Karabell, Derek Carty and Tristan H. Cockcroft.

All odds courtesy of ESPN BET.

Team picks to ponder

What’s your best value pick to win the World Series, beyond the current favorites (Dodgers, Braves, Astros, Yankees)?

• Phillies +1500: The Phillies are stronger than they were a season ago, when they just missed a second consecutive World Series appearance. They have Atlanta’s number in the playoffs. It is not great value, but only two NL teams have better odds. — Karabell

• Phillies +1500: I would love to say the Orioles because of their overall talent, but their price is a bit too steep for me. I agree with Karabell. The Phillies have been there before, have a loaded lineup, a deep staff and a flame-throwing bullpen. — Fulghum

• Orioles +1200: They’re the very next one listed after the favorites, but I consider them a favorite, too, between their young, well-rounded offense and prospect excess to make necessary in-season moves to push them over the top. — Cockcroft

• Rays +3000. This market appears to be very efficiently priced. Surprisingly, there does appear to be a lot of value on the Braves at +550, implying a 15% chance to win while my projection system (THE BAT X) puts them at 25%. Outside of the main teams, though, the only one that might be worth betting for me is the Rays with an implied 3% chance to win and a projected 4% chance. That’s a small edge, though. It feels weird to recommend a favorite, but the Braves really do look like the best value on the board. — Carty

• Giants +4000: I like the Rangers at +1400, but no team has repeated since the 1998-2000 Yankees won three in a row, so let’s go with a long shot candidate in the Giants. A playoff rotation that could include Logan Webb, Blake Snell and Kyle Harrison has the potential to pull off some upsets and the lineup/defense has been upgraded with Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman and Jung Hoo Lee. –Schoenfield

Is there any team you’re looking at as a surprise division winner?

• Tigers +350, Cardinals +190: The Tigers finished second in the AL Central last season and, as the young pitching develops, things should look better in Detroit. The Cardinals have stabilized their pitching with older folks. Both Central divisions are up for grabs. — Karabell

• Reds +360: It may require only 85 wins to take the NL Central this year. The Reds have a young, exciting lineup and a surprisingly deep rotation of talented arms. The bullpen remains a huge question mark. If they can fortify that group, they could be a playoff team this season. — Fulghum

• Reds +360, Tigers +350: Echoing Eric, the Central divisions are typically very much up for grabs, with only the Twins projected for more than 85 wins this season. The up-and-coming Reds are loaded with high-upside youngsters who could push them over the top, while people are sleeping on the Tigers’ pitching talent. — Cockcroft

• Rays +600: The odds on these markets basically match the World Series odds proportionally, so I’m seeing the same value here. Even at -275, the Braves are showing legitimate value to win the NL East, while the Rays at +600 to win the AL East imply a 14% chance compared to a 22% chance projected by THE BAT X. — Carty

• Brewers +650: Nobody is picking the Brewers and I understand why, especially with Corbin Burnes in Baltimore, but this might be the best defensive team in the majors, they’ve added Rhys Hoskins and rookies Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz to plug big gaps in the lineup from last year, and I think the bullpen can survive until Devin Williams returns. I’m not saying they’re going to win 90, but it may only take 86 to win this division. — Schoenfield

What teams are definite over/under picks for you in terms of their win totals?

• Tigers OVER 80.5 (-115), Royals OVER 73.5 (-120), Yankees UNDER 91.5 (-105), Athletics UNDER 57.5 (+110): The Tigers and Royals are buoyed by young players and smart, veteran pitching additions, and both will challenge for the AL Central. The Yankees have pitching concerns, and not just Gerrit Cole. The Athletics lost 112 games last season and are not better. — Karabell

• Angels UNDER 71.5 (+100): This team won just 73 games last year with Shohei Ohtani contributing a +9.9 WAR (combined pitching and hitting) on his way to AL MVP. Ummmm, what are they going to do without him in a division featuring the Rangers, Astros and Mariners? Yikes! — Fulghum

• Reds OVER 81.5 (-110) and Brewers UNDER 77.5 (-110): Here are two teams headed in opposite directions, with the Reds on the rise and having the prospect capital to make in-season trades to support a late-season playoff push. Meanwhile, the Brewers are likely to move a bunch of players (Willy Adames? Freddy Peralta? Devin Williams, if he’s healthy in time?). — Cockcroft

• Athletics OVER 57.5 (-135). This is your classic “the market is treating a bad team as worse than they are” scenario. Nobody wants to bet the over on the A’s. They’re terrible. Everyone knows this. And so books can get away with inflating the line a bit, which creates opportunity for sharp bettors. This is the lowest win total of any MLB team by three full wins, but THE BAT X projects both the Nationals and Rockies to be worse. A 69-win projection is still very bad, but it’s also 12 wins above the book’s line. Smash it. — Carty

• Marlins UNDER 77.5 (-115): They overachieved in the win-loss department year ago thanks to a 33-14 record in one-run games. That will regress and the offense isn’t good. Then factor in the season-long injury to Sandy Alcantara and the health concerns with Eury Perez in spring training and the rotation suddenly might have some issues as well. — Schoenfield

Who’s getting the hardware?

Who do you like for value in the races for AL and NL MVP?

• Adley Rutschman +2000, Gunnar Henderson +1500, Trea Turner +2000, Paul Goldschmidt +3000: I love those young Orioles. There is a narrative on Rutschman that he is the next Buster Posey, and Posey won an MVP award early in his career. Turner will lead Philly’s rousing offense with his best year yet. Goldschmidt won it in 2022. That was not so long ago. — Karabell

• Mike Trout +2000, Corbin Carroll +2000: Being able to get three-time winner (and four-time runner-up) Trout at this price is a steal. If he stays healthy, the numbers are always going to pop. Carroll’s rookie season featured 25 HR and 54 SB and a fifth-place finish in the NL MVP race. A “Year 2” leap could lead to a stat line that matches Prime Trout. — Fulghum

• Vladimir Guerrero Jr. +2000: I’ve been all-in on Guerrero in my fantasy baseball drafts this preseason, expecting a huge rebound year from the young slugger, so why not stay on brand? He nearly captured the 2021 award, and the then-winner, Shohei Ohtani, is now in the other league. Guerrero’s odds are too good to pass up. — Cockcroft

• Henderson +1500 and Spencer Strider +10000: Henderson is my AL MVP pick coming off a 6.2-WAR season as a rookie. I don’t have a great value pick in the NL, but I can envision a scenario where Strider’s new curveball proves to be a great weapon, he wins 23 games with an ERA around 2.00, and he strikes out 300 batters. That might do it if the big hitters siphon votes from each other. — Schoenfield

Who do you like for value to bring home the Cy Young in either the AL or NL?

• Grayson Rodriguez +2000, Justin Verlander +6000, Yoshinobu Yamamoto +1200, Justin Steele +2000: I may as well stick with the young Orioles theme. Verlander may debut in April, and he won a Cy Young in 2022 with only 28 starts. Yamamoto will be an ace for a 100-win team. Steele is a bargain pick after a top-five Cy Young finish last season. — Karabell

• Tyler Glasnow +1600: Glasnow’s only issue throughout his career has been staying healthy enough to accrue enough counting stats for an entire season. If he can make 30-plus starts in 2024, he’ll win a LOT of games in this Dodgers rotation — and his strikeout numbers will rival those of Strider. — Fulghum

• Logan Gilbert +2000, Shane Bieber +3000, Glasnow +1600: Other than an early blip by Gilbert, all three have looked excellent this preseason, and the two AL candidates stand good odds of ranking among the league leaders in innings pitched, which is important in this particular race. I agree with Tyler that Glasnow has the raw stuff necessary to win, if he can stay healthy enough for 25-28 starts. — Cockcroft

• Carlos Rodon +4000, Glasnow +1600: Tarik Skubal is my pick, but Rodon is a nice roll of the dice at that price. He’s come on strong at the end of spring training and was a top starter in 2021-22 before his struggles last year. I’ll echo the Glasnow comments as well and I think he’ll get enough innings this year to put himself in the running. — Schoenfield

What newcomers are you looking at for top rookie honors in either league?

• Junior Caminero +1200, Jackson Merrill +900: Caminero starts in the minors, but his bat should be so good, he may need only four-plus months to produce noteworthy numbers. Merrill starts right away in center field, so opportunity is not an issue for a dynamic player. — Karabell

• James Wood +2500, Colton Cowser +3000: Wood is a towering 6-foot-6 left-handed power hitter who draws comparisons to Aaron Judge. He had a 1.213 OPS in 44 ABs this spring. He should get as many ABs as he wants on a bad Nationals team. Cowser has more roadblocks to playing time on a loaded Orioles roster, but if he gets a shot in the lineup, his bat skills may make it impossible for him to ever come out. — Fulghum

• Ceddanne Rafaela +2000, Wood +2500: The favorites in either league are well positioned to take home this year’s hardware, but Rafaela’s and Wood’s odds are tantalizing. Rafaela’s speed, defense and good showing with the bat this spring earned him an Opening Day roster spot, while Wood opened enough eyes to be one of the top prospects on the list for an early-season promotion. — Cockcroft

• Nolan Schanuel +1200, Joey Ortiz (not on the board): It’s almost impossible to go away from the Jackson Holliday/Evan Carter/Wyatt Langford trio in the AL (I have Langford), but Schanuel could post a .400 OBP and maybe his power surprises and he pops 15-20 home runs. Ortiz has a job in Milwaukee after posting strong numbers in the minors in 2023 (.321/.378/.509) with good contact ability and strong exit velocity and excellent defense that should boost his WAR. –Schoenfield

Potential player props

What are your favorite individual player props for 2024?

• Aaron Judge UNDER 43.5 HR (-115), Royce Lewis OVER 24.5 HR (+100) and +7500 HR leader, Trea Turner OVER 23.5 HR (+100), Aaron Nola OVER 192.5 K (-115), Shota Imanaga OVER 148.5 K (-115), Christopher Morel +15000 HR leader, Lane Thomas +15000 hits leader. Victor Scott II (not on the board) steals leader: This is a lot, but we worry about Judge’s volume. Lewis is legit. Nola has fanned more than 200 hitters in five consecutive full seasons, so why would he stop now? Morel hit 14 HR over the first two months of 2023. Scott stole 95 bases in the minors in 2023 and a bunch of injuries have cleared a path for him to start the season in St. Louis. — Karabell

• Fernando Tatis Jr. UNDER 33.5 HR (-115). One barrier to Tatis going over this total is his health. He has never played more than 141 games in a season. He does have a 42 HR season to his credit, but that came before his PED suspension. His 2023 HR total dipped down to 25 in 141 games played. — Fulghum

• Turner +1800 hits leader, Yordan Alvarez +1000 HR leader and OVER 37.5 HR (-115): The Phillies’ offense is loaded and likely to turn the lineup over as much as any team, fueling the opportunities that Turner — a big rebound candidate — needs. As for Alvarez, his uptick in fly-ball rate at no expense to his contact quality last year bodes well for a home run boost. If he stays healthy for all 162, watch out. — Cockcroft

• Julio Rodriguez OVER 31.5 HR (-115), +6000 HR leader: Well, he hit 32 last season and has plenty of room to improve by cutting down on his strikeouts and improving his plate discipline. If that happens, watch out. Oh, and we’ll just throw this out there: Ken Griffey Jr.’s power exploded at age 23, going from 27 home runs to 45. Maybe J-Rod makes the same leap forward at the same age. — Schoenfield

Source: www.espn.com