The Rays are forced to scramble

Tampa Bay Rays OF Josh Lowe, for years an intriguing prospect, finally emerged as a fantasy star during the 2023 season, when he hit .292 with 20 home runs and 32 stolen bases, despite enduring a mostly platoon role. Lowe batted 501 times, but 86% of the time it was against a right-handed pitcher. Perhaps the analytically inclined Lowe handles a similar role this time around, but his 2024 season is going to start a bit late.

Lowe, who has missed several spring training weeks due to left hip inflammation, also has an oblique injury. This will force him to the IL for at least the start of April and perhaps longer. Lowe, 26, had already slipped quite a bit in ESPN average live drafts to the 20th round, despite finishing as a top-30 outfielder in ESPN points scoring, and a top-10 outfielder in roto formats (due to the steals).

Some viewed Lowe as unlikely to statistically repeat his successful breakout season because of his .357 BABIP, but I don’t see anyone avoiding the three qualified fellows ahead of him (Freddie Freeman, Yandy Diaz, Luis Arraez). Lowe always enjoyed high BABIP rates in the minor leagues, and he posted high walk rates as well. He did not draw walks at his typical rate in the major leagues last season. The power and speed are real, and we really do not want his batting average suffering because he struggles against left-handed pitching anyway.

Regardless, fantasy managers in all formats — even in ESPN’s shallow leagues — should view Lowe’s injury as an opportunity to secure him far later in drafts (or at lower auction prices) than his skills demand. ESPN projects Lowe to hit .273 with 21 homers and 30 steals. That still works for a top-30 outfielder. Lowe was one of just six players to reach both those power/speed marks last season, so even if he struggles against left-handed pitching and he may miss a few weeks of the pending season, he remains a valuable player.

The Rays will likely turn to former Cardinals/Guardians prospect Richie Palacios as their main right fielder versus right-handed pitching, and that may be quite valuable for April. Former Guardians/Dodgers/Mets veteran Amed Rosario was already in line to handle lefties across the diamond, and Harold Ramirez remains as well. Palacios may have some underrated pop, and the Cardinals have famously given up on other outfielders in recent seasons (Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena). Rosario hits left-handed pitching well.

In other Rays news, keep an eye on DH Jonathan Aranda, having a terrific spring and presumed to handle clean-up duties versus right-handed pitching. Aranda hit .339 with 25 home runs at Triple-A Durham last season. Losing Lowe does not help the lineup, but the Rays will score plenty of runs. Diaz and Arozarena are the lone current active Rays hitters going among the top 180 hitters in ESPN ADP. Lowe will not be out long. 3B/SS Junior Caminero will not be in the minors for long. 2B Brandon Lowe should bounce back to prior levels.

Other spring injuries

• Miami Marlins SP Eury Perez has a sore elbow and that bodes poorly for him being available for the start of the season. Perez, 20, was handled quite carefully by the organization last season, but he thrived for most of his 19 starts, striking out 29% of hitters. Do not expect volume this season, either.

• Toronto Blue Jays C Danny Jansen broke a bone in his right wrist last week and will start the season on the IL. Jansen backs up Alejandro Kirk, but Jansen smacked 17 home runs over only 301 PA last season, so he is not a normal backup. Continue to consider him in deeper, multi-catcher formats.

• Texas Rangers SS Corey Seager is not going at much of a draft-day discount in ESPN leagues, despite a groin injury, and that looks smarter today as the organization believes he may avoid an IL stint to start the season. Seager finished last season as the No. 15 points league hitter, despite playing in only 119 games.

• Philadelphia Phillies 1B Bryce Harper (back) and New York Yankees OF Aaron Judge (abdomen) are not playing in spring games and, with the season starting in 10 days, we are getting close to the time to worry. (Actually, the season starts on Wednesday in Korea, with the Dodgers-Padres at 6:05 am ET. Everyone else begins on the 28th.) For now, Harper/Judge remain strong second-round picks. Ask again in a week and they may not be.

Other news

• Blue Jays 1B Joey Votto (man, that is strange typing Blue Jays there) blasted the first pitch he saw in spring training for a home run. It came Sunday off Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler. Cue all narratives of a Votto revival. Votto then rolled his ankle in the dugout and left the game. Dream big, but Votto still appears to be unworthy of attention in ESPN standard formats.

• Daulton Varsho, also of the Blue Jays, stole three bases in Saturday’s game against the Yankees, reminding fantasy managers that the 16 bases he stole in both of the last two seasons could be topped. Varsho is no longer catcher-eligible, but he is durable and a potential 20/20 option in the outfield.

• Rangers OF Wyatt Langford leads all qualified players with a 1.235 OPS and 16 RBI this season, and it is looking increasingly likely he makes the World Series champions as their DH. Langford’s stock has risen quite a bit in ESPN ADP over the past week (both he and Orioles SS/2B Jackson Holliday are up more than 20%), and it should keep on rising.

• Atlanta Braves OF Jarred Kelenic is slated to platoon with recent signing Adam Duvall in left field, but that may not last long if Kelenic doesn’t hit. Kelenic is only 3-for-42 this spring, with 12 strikeouts. The former Mets prospect and Mariners underachiever is a .204 hitter in 974 big-league PA. Duvall is looking better in deep leagues every day.

• Former San Francisco Giants 3B J.D. Davis got dumped after arbitration and ended up nearby with the Oakland Athletics, where he should start. Davis is not great, and unworthy of attention in ESPN standard leagues, but he did hit 18 home runs for the Giants. He will play regularly.

• Journeyman defensive CF Michael Taylor signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates, and again, ignore him in shallow formats, but he did hit 21 home runs and swipe 13 bases for last season’s Minnesota Twins. Unlike on the A’s, where nobody fantasy relevant gets pushed aside, this looks like bad news for perpetual sleeper Edward Olivares. For our fantasy reaction to all prior signings this winter, click here.

Closing time

• Milwaukee Brewers RHP Devin Williams was one of the first relief pitchers going in ESPN ADP a week ago. Now he is going considerably later or even undrafted in some leagues, after reports of stress fractures in his back are likely to sideline him for at least half of the season. Most people may assume RHP Joel Payamps automatically handles closing duties, but the Brewers claim it is an open competition. This is not one of those situations in which drafting the player at a discount and assuming he offers great value over the final three months seems wise.

• Rangers RHP Jose Leclerc saved only four regular-season games a season ago, but he handled closing duties during the championship run, and the organization wants to be loyal. Manager Bruce Bochy made it official this weekend: Leclerc will close, and David Robertson will set up, along with RHPs Josh Sborz and Kirby Yates. Leclerc is the No. 27 RP in ESPN ADP. He should be among the top 15.

• Boston Red Sox RHP Kenley Jansen has 420 career saves, so if he is healthy and pitching competently this season, he will close. Jansen has barely pitched this spring because of a lat problem. He gave up three runs (two home runs) in a brief weekend outing. Still, do not let him slip too far in drafts. It may be ugly, but Jansen always gets the saves. Jansen over Williams is the right move.

Source: www.espn.com