Loza’s best fantasy fits for NFL free agents

Fewer rumor mills churn with the fervency than those engaged in offseason NFL chatter. From debating the necessity of adding extra regular-season games to parsing social media posts to deciphering even the most obtuse coachspeak, football fans love to sip tea and play telephone. The hottest brews and the most crackling connections, though, are always delivered as winter turns to spring.

Between welcoming a new class of fantasy stars to the (re)shuffling of the virtual game’s most relied upon standouts, an impulse to connect dots seems impossible to resist. Less passionate folks might call it conjecture. The most die-hard among us, however, consider it preparation. As my old friend Kyle Soppe (and West Coast rapper Suga Free) would say, “Stay ready so you don’t have to get ready.” Using that mantra as inspo, let’s go through this year’s list of big free agent names and discuss their most fantastic fantasy landing spots.

Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson, Las Vegas Raiders? Let’s Ride, indeed. Registering an 11-19 record during his career as a Bronco, Wilson fell far short of the organization’s mile high expectations. From a fantasy point of view, however, his numbers were more average than horrible this past season. Wilson recorded 17.1 fantasy points per game and closed out his second campaign in Denver as fantasy QB14 overall. For context, Justin Fields averaged 17.7 and Patrick Mahomes managed 17.5 fantasy points per game.

Wilson may never cook. But he’s also not cooked. The Raiders need a grown-up quarterback in the building. And Antonio Pierce appears to have the rizz necessary to revitalize a humbled DangeRuss. Surrounded by veteran pass-catching talent, Wilson could retain top 15 fantasy value in Vegas. And I’m sure Ciara wouldn’t mind securing a residency in the desert.

Justin Fields, Pittsburgh Steelers? The presumptive thought is that Fields will be dealt so that the Bears can draft Caleb Williams with the first pick. That seems bananas. Not only because the locker room has loudly rallied around Fields, but because the organization has proved incapable of creating an environment conducive to the development of a rookie quarterback. Chicago passing on Marvin Harrison Jr. to waste the talents of another rookie signal-caller is the most Bears thing ever (and the only reason why I think it will happen).

Fields following fellow Windy City castoff Mitch Trubisky to Pittsburgh feels like a perfectly poetic plot twist. With Kenny Pickett struggling (and the aforementioned Trubisky released and rejoining the Bills), the Steelers are in the market for a new franchise quarterback. The addition of Arthur Smith — despite the “one more chance” blather about Pickett — suggests a refresh and realignment for the offense. For obvious reasons, Smith doesn’t curry much favor in fantasy circles, but we know the man loves to run the ball. That’s something Fields does really well (when it’s not being coached out of him), as he averaged 5.3 yards per carry (50.5 rushing yards per game, QB2) last season. A move to Steel City would keep Fields inside the top 12 fantasy producers at the position in 2024.

Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons? Cousins running it back in Minnesota has long appeared the most obvious outcome regarding the 35-year-old’s landing spot. Recently, though, whispers about a move to Atlanta have surfaced. We know Cousins can serve in a Sean McVay-style offense. He led the position in passing scores over the first two months of the season, posting 18 touchdowns from Weeks 1 through 8 (and with Justin Jefferson sidelined for three of those outings). That number seems duplicable given the Falcons’ stable of talented (and, as yet, unlocked) pass-catchers and with offensive coordinator Zac Robinson calling plays. Assuming rehab of his right Achilles remains on schedule, Cousins could surface as fantasy’s biggest value pick at the position come fall.

Running backs

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Saquon Barkley, Houston Texans? Barkley is set to become a free agent after six seasons in New York. The 27-year-old motored his way to 1,489 total touches over that time, serving as the Giants offensive engine for the bulk of his career. That volume buoyed Barkley’s fantasy stock, as he managed nearly 16 fantasy points per game (RB13) despite averaging 3.9 yards per carry in 2023. While the former second overall pick may be entering the twilight of his career, a change could be the catalyst for a resurgence … particularly on an offense as explosive as the Texans’. With Devin Singletary‘s exit opening (at least) 40 targets and Dameon Pierce‘s legs lacking churn, Barkley would serve as the primary ball carrier on an ascending squad. That’s a recipe for top 10 fantasy running back potential next season.

Josh Jacobs, Baltimore Ravens? Jacobs, like Barkley, did not receive the franchise tag from his team and will be a free agent. The former Alabama standout has operated in the backfield with dogged determination, recording over 660 touches over his past pair of seasons. On the heels of a career campaign (in which Jacobs registered 340 carries as well as 53 receptions), Jacobs’ efficiency took a hit last season, as he averaged 4.1 yards per touch (RB50).

Still, at only 26 years old, Jacobs might still find fantasy relevance on a team that he doesn’t have to carry. The Ravens fit that bill. With Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins set to depart, Jacobs could play an every down role in Baltimore. Sharing the backfield with Lamar Jackson could certainly open lanes and help the veteran running back regain some of his trademark juice. A move to Charm City would keep Jacobs on the RB1 radar in 2024.

Derrick Henry, Dallas Cowboys? Henry has long been a source of anxiety for fantasy managers, thriving as an anomaly relative to the rest of the position. The 30-year-old back led all running backs in carries for the second consecutive season, recording 280 totes over 2023. His 4.2 yards per carry translated into 1,167 rushing yards (RB2), which allowed him to finish as the RB8 overall last year. It’s hard to imagine he’ll handle the same type of volume (and subsequently produce at the same level) outside of Tennessee. But if there were a team that might help the King to further polish his crown, it’s the Cowboys. The anointing of Tony Pollard didn’t go as planned, and Dallas appears ready to let the longtime backup walk in free agency. That opens up a Texas-sized spot in the backfield. Given Henry’s stature and skill set (not to mention his understandable desire to play for a Super Bowl contender), a move south makes plenty of sense (and offers substantial fantasy appeal).

Austin Ekeler, Philadelphia Eagles? There was always some doubt that Ekeler would flourish as well in Kellen Moore’s offense as he did in Joe Lombardi’s. He didn’t. Obviously, the high-ankle sprain he suffered early in the season didn’t help, either. Between dwindling use in the passing game (Ek’s targets dipped by more than two per game between 2022 and 2023), reduced efficiency and a staggeringly low number of red zone touches (nearly half as many as he recorded in 2022), Ekeler struggled to post low-end RB2 fantasy numbers.

Under another new regime, Austin appears destined to leave SoCal for chillier climes. I’d personally love to see him land in Philly. I understand that Moore is the Eagles’ new offensive coordinator, but I’m also not expecting 2022 production from Ek this go-around. He is, however, more than capable of taking over the D’Andre Swift role in Philadelphia’s backfield. And with Jason Kelce retiring, it wouldn’t surprise me to see fewer “brotherly shoves” next season, allowing for Austin to reestablish his nose for the end zone in 2024. Ekeler has the demeanor, juice and skill set to capably handle the ball 15 to 18 times per game. Given the operational success of the offense, that kind of volume would make Ekeler a regular top 20 fantasy contributor at the position.

Wide receivers

Calvin Ridley, New York Jets? With Mike Evans signing a multiyear deal to stay in Tampa and Tee Higgins as well as Michael Pittman Jr. receiving franchise tags, Ridley headlines a less-than-flashy list of free agent receivers. The 29-year-old put together a streaky effort in Jacksonville, recording four games of over 100 receiving yards and nine outings of 40 or fewer receiving yards. It seems likely that the Jaguars will attempt to re-sign Ridley, but the market (not to mention Ridley’s contract stipulations) isn’t working in the team’s financial favor.

As a result, a bevy of teams figure to be interested in acquiring the 29-year-old’s talents. While the Chiefs and the Bills are fantasy favorites, the Jets seem like a solid landing spot for the former Falcon. Working as a compliment to Garrett Wilson and catching passes from Aaron Rodgers would offer Ridley another shot at fantasy stardom. (Though, ARod won’t be as forgiving as TLaw was about the drops. Still, the memes figure to be absolutely delicious.)

Marquise Brown, Carolina Panthers or Tennessee Titans? Brown’s second campaign with the Cardinals closed on a sour note, as he struggled through a heel issue down the stretch. Arizona’s instability under center certainly didn’t help the 26-year-old’s production ahead of the injury. Ending the season on IR and coming off of a down statistical effort is, obviously, not a good look heading into free agency. Still, the options for wide receiver-needy teams are far from flush, which should work in Hollywood’s favor.

It’s unlikely the former Raven will land on a contending squad, but the Panthers could use a field stretcher to help Bryce Young‘s maturation process. Additionally, the Titans might consider orchestrating a reunion between Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in an effort to further unlock Will Levis‘ potential. Either way, Brown figures to languish in the WR3/WR4 range for fantasy purposes next fall.

Mike Williams, Cleveland Browns? The Chargers are going through a rebrand … and Williams does not appear to be part of the team’s next-gen look. With a history of back issues, coming off of a torn ACL and entering his age-30 season, the vet is giving red-flag energy for fantasy purposes. Yet, a solid landing spot could create interesting value for bargain-minded managers. The Browns need a big body on the outside to compliment Amari Cooper. Plus, a reunion with former college teammate Deshaun Watson should aid in Williams’ offensive acclimation. He’s unlikely to deliver better than top-40 WR FF numbers over the course of the coming year, but Williams is certainly capable of a smattering of multi-TD weeks were he to spend 2024 in Cleveland.

Tyler Lockett, New England Patriots? Due to salary cap issues, Lockett is a strong cut candidate for the Seahawks. After clearing 1,000 receiving yards for four consecutive campaigns, the 31-year-old wide receiver managed a 79-894-5 stat line in 2023. A massive rebound seems unlikely even if Lockett were to remain in Seattle, given the team’s first-round investment in Jaxon Smith-Njigba. While a return to Kansas City would make for a great story and provide the Chiefs with a much-needed veteran presence, it feels like a reach.

Instead, let’s entertain the possibility of Lockett landing in New England. In the throes of a youth movement, the Patriots will be thirsty for an experienced (but not yet washed) talent in the locker room and on the field. A seasoned and versatile pass-catcher such as Lockett checks all of the boxes. Lockett could emerge as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, working as Drake Maye‘s (or Jayden Daniels‘) most relied upon target. His efficiency figures to wane, but the volume could keep Lockett among the top-40 PPR producers at the position.

Tight end

Noah Fant, Cincinnati Bengals? With Dalton Schultz staying in Houston and Jonnu Smith agreeing to a deal with Miami, Fant tops this year’s crop of tight end free agents. The 26-year-old was a red zone star at Iowa but has failed to ROI since joining the pros. But a late career glow-up could be in the cards for Fant were he to land with the right team.

The Bengals feel like a fire spot for the former first-round pick. Cincy has been without an elite option at the position since Tyler Eifert departed after 2019 (though some might argue injuries derailed Eifert’s productivity well before then). A workout metrics maven, Fant’s talent remains evident. His size and skill set could shine as a third option in the Bengals’ pass-friendly scheme, potentially making Fant one of this summer’s hottest post-hype sleepers.

Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF.

Source: www.espn.com