SANTA CLARA – Christian McCaffrey still recalls the “salty taste” in the 49ers’ mouths nine months ago, when they reconvened for spring workouts with still-bitter feelings over the franchise’s second straight NFC Championship Game defeat.
Great optimism, however, accompanied that spring reboot.
“We knew how good this team can be,” McCaffrey said. “Teams like this don’t always come around, so, to have this opportunity and be in the position we’re in, the sense of urgency is definitely high.”
Sunday’s NFC Championship Game – 3:30 p.m. kickoff against the Detroit Lions at Levi’s Stadium — marks the 49ers’ best shot to reach the Super Bowl since the 2019 season, when they parlayed their No. 1 seed and home-field advantage to pull one win closer to a still-elusive Lombardi Trophy.
These top-seeded 49ers (13-5) are both motivated and calloused by their exits from the past two NFC title games: their 2021 team’s 20-17 defeat at SoFi Stadium after blowing a 10-point fourth-quarter lead to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams, and, last year’s 31-7 fiasco at Philadelphia where Brock Purdy’s throwing elbow got torn on their opening possession.
Purdy remarkably rebounded this season to set the 49ers’ single-season record for passing yards, and, after a slippery start to Saturday’s playoff opener, he deftly delivered a game-winning drive in the final minutes for a 24-21 divisional-round win over the Green Bay Packers at Levi’s Stadium.
Meanwhile, the upstart and No. 3-seeded Lions (12-5) won their opening two playoff games in Detroit to vault them into their first NFC title game since, ironically, a 1957 comeback over the 49ers at San Francisco’s Kezar Stadium.
“We want this game bad and they’ve obviously been hoping to have another championship come to this organization,” Purdy said. “The last couple times we’ve been in the Super Bowl, we’ve fallen short. So now we’ve got a shot at it again. To play at home in the NFC Championship, it’s going to be sweet.”
Here is how the 49ers can win the George Halas Trophy as NFC champions for an eighth time in franchise history:
1. McCAFFREY IN MARQUEE ROLE
Down 31-7 with five minutes left in last year’s NFC Championship trauma, McCaffrey took a shotgun snap and eventually uncorked a wild pass into desolate land, where the football rolled to the feet of general manager John Lynch along the 49ers’ sideline. That is not how McCaffrey will be used this time.
He’s the NFL rushing king for 2023 who ran for two touchdowns to overtake the Packers. He should be the offense’s engine this game – as a rusher or a slot receiver, but definitely not as an emergency passer. How many carries or touches must he get?
“As many as it takes to win,” McCaffrey said. “… For me, it’s not about the touches. It’s about making them count.”
The more McCaffrey is in rhythm, the less they have to summon fellow offensive weapon Deebo Samuel, who exited last game with a shoulder injury but hasn’t missed a playoff game in his five-year career.
The Lions’ run defense ranked No. 2 in the regular season (88.8 yards per game) and their pass defense is much more inviting. But the 49ers must impose their will on the ground, just as they did the last time the NFC’s George Halas Trophy was present at Levi’s Stadium. That was four years ago, when Raheem Mostert ran for a franchise-record 220 yards and four touchdowns against the Packers en route to the Super Bowl.
McCaffrey’s Dec. 31 calf strain proved a non-factor last Saturday, and his memories from last NFC Championship Game should further fuel. Not all memories were bad. He had a phenomenal, 23-yard touchdown run to tie that game at 7 in the second quarter.
2. STOP OUTSIDE RUNS
When the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs breaks for an outside run, the 49ers must wall him off, unlike what they could do against the Packers’ Aaron Jones, who became the first running back in 45 games to crest the 100-yard mark on the Niners.
Gibbs’ rookie flare and David Montgomery’s experienced power makes for a daunting duo, until you see the 49ers can counter with the linebacker tandem of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw. Montgomery, by the way, had 17 carries and just 26 yards in the 2022 opener against the 49ers while with the Chicago Bears.
While there exists concern over the edge containment of Chase Young or Nick Bosa – including on screen passes — the linebackers and other defenders must swarm to the ball in group fashion. And that leaves the secondary exposed to a play-action pass. But stopping the run is priority No. 1 for the defense.
Injuries to the Lions’ interior offensive linemen – center Frank Ragnow will play through multiple issues, left guard Jonah Jackson (knee) will be replaced by Kayode Awosika – could open the door for Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead to penetrate the interior, further emphasizing the need for other defenders to contain outside runs.
“The Montgomery and Gibbs one-two combination is probably the best we’ve seen all year,” defensive coordinator Steve Wilks said. “Different style of runners, but they’re both effective in what they do.”
3. CREATE TURNOVERS, NOT PENALTIES
Lions quarterback Jared Goff in enjoying a well-earned renaissance to his career in Detroit. The Marin County native has lost his last five meetings against the 49ers — including four when with the Los Angeles Rams – and a common thread has been turnovers. Goff committed seven in those five losses.
“The key is obviously getting pressure on him,” Nick Bosa said. “He’s got a really good O-line so it makes it tough. If you cover up his first couple of reads, get after him, and hit him a few times, it changes things a little bit.”
Bosa figures to match up most often with third-year right tackle Penei Sewell, who drew the following praise from 49ers left tackle Trent Williams: “He reminds me a lot of myself and emulates a lot of things I do, which impresses me.”
The 49ers did not sack the Packers’ Jordan Love last game but Bosa’s pressure forced a last-minute interception that Dre Greenlaw secured. Greenlaw then took that ball on a harrowing victory lap, of sorts, before getting tackled. He’s the same 49ers defender, by the way, who had a pick-six against the Lions in the 49ers’ 2021 victorious season opener in Detroit.
Goff is shrewd enough to attack the 49ers’ secondary and he has a multitude of enticing targets, led by All-Pro receiver Aman-Ra St. Brown, rookie tight end Sam LaPorta and speedster Jameson Williams. The 49ers should assign Pro Bowl cornerback Charvarius Ward to shadow St. Brown, except perhaps in the slot, where Deommodore Lenoir could handle him.
The defense’s biggest concern may be No. 3 cornerback Ambry Thomas, who’s rushed back from thumb surgery but drew two pass-interference penalties last game. Ward drew a team-high 12 penalties in the regular season, and Lenoir has had his share, so they all must play clean.
This is Ward’s sixth trip to the conference finals in six NFL seasons, having spent his first four years with the Chiefs. “Everything is magnified,” Ward said. “If you’re playing great, obviously will get a lot of love and praise. If you’re playing bad, that will get magnified, too, and if you make a mistake or are out of position, the opponent will find you.”
4. FEAST ON CORNERBACKS
Purdy certainly should see plenty of space in the Lions’ secondary to pounce on big-play opportunities. And a dry football, with no rain forecast, will avoid a repeat of last game’s slippery ways before his long-sought, late-game heroics.
While much of this past week’s attention has been on Samuel’s availability – he’ll play through a “deep bruise” to his shoulder — it’s worth reminding all the 49ers All-Pro targets actually are Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and McCaffrey, not to mention the clutch ways of Jauan Jennings. Short tosses to Samuel in motion through the backfield also could ignite a positive passing day.
When Purdy isn’t seizing on the loose coverage of cornerbacks Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor, enough open spaces should exist elsewhere across the field, simply simply because of the Lions’ aggressive nature. One catch: Detroit disguises it blitzes and coverages better than most defenses Purdy has faced (and thrived against).
“It’s like a high risk, high reward for both sides,” Purdy said. “If we’re ready and have a good plan, all it takes is a 5-yard throw to turn it into a big gain because they’re a couple of guys short (in coverage). We’ve gone into games where defenses blitz a lot and we have a good plan for it.”
5. SCORE MORE, MUCH MORE
To win, the 49ers obviously need more points than the Lions, but also consider this: they need to rediscover their 30-from-Purdy scoring touch for whichever AFC juggernaut they’ll encounter in the Super Bowl – the Kansas City Chiefs or the Baltimore Ravens.
That is why the 49ers’ No. 1 task should be to not just score but do so in abundance. They put up 24 points on the Packers with the offense out of sync from the start (but not the critical finish). They scored at least 30 in 9-of-12 wins (and between 17 and 21 points in all five losses).
They must pick up where their offense left off in their playoff opener, when Purdy engineered a go-ahead, 69-yard touchdown drive with 1:07 to spare in the 24-21 win over the Packers.
The Lions have not allowed 30 points to any opponent in their past 10 games, including their two playoff wins. “They’re winning, playing good ball, so obviously they’re a good team,” Samuel said. “But everything has to run through Levi’s.”
Source: www.mercurynews.com