Daily Spotlight: Housing May Start to Thaw

Summary

The housing market was “frozen” in 2023, as sellers didn’t list homes because they had very low mortgage rates, this according to Zillow’s co-founder Spencer Rascoff. But in a Wall Street Journal interview, he added that the market is “starting to thaw.” One reason is that life, work, and family situations have changed for many homeowners and their residence no longer meets their needs. Prospective sellers also are adjusting to the “sticker shock” of higher mortgage rates, Rascoff added. Last month Chief Economist Laurence Yun of the National Association of Realtors’ said: “A marked turn can be expected as mortgage rates have plunged in recent weeks.” On January 8, Fannie Mae reported an improvement in their Home Purchase Sentiment Index due primarily to a “significant jump” in the share of consumers expecting mortgage rates to decline in the next year. Still, improvement in home sales may be tempered by affordability issues from high home prices, according to Fannie Mae economist Mark Palim. We expect the Commerce Department to report December Housing Starts of 1.45 million at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. We expect the National Association of Realtors to report December Existing Home Sales of 3.85 million (SAAR). We expect the Commerce Department to report December New Home Sales of 680,000 (SAAR). The Bureau of Economic Analysis will provide its advance estimate of 4Q Gross Domestic product. We expect 2% growth. Housing is not expected to be a significant contributor to GDP growth based on the January 10 GDPNow estimate from the Atlanta Fed. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index jumped 4.9% in October. We expect a gain of about 2.5% for November. The Zillow Home Value Index was up 2.2% in November. In this evolving housing market, Argus recommends Lennar, D.R. Horton, and Toll Brothers — companies with solid financial strength and that are adapting to market conditions.

Source: finance.yahoo.com