What is worth betting in the NFL in Week 17? And what are the best plays to help you make smart wagering decisions?
Betting analysts Eric Moody, Tyler Fulghum, Anita Marks, Seth Walder and Aaron Schatz are here to provide their thoughts.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET.
Dolphins at Ravens (-3.5, 46.5). How are you betting on this game between the 11-4 Dolphins and 12-3 Ravens, and how do you factor in the way each team is coming off a huge win in Week 16?
Schatz: My DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings have loved the Baltimore Ravens more than any other advanced metric for weeks now, and there’s no change in that after their huge win over San Francisco last week. But I wonder if we’re almost to the point of overrating them. Even the best teams in history lost games, especially against strong opponents, and the Dolphins are very strong, ranking fourth in DVOA right now. Given the quality of the Ravens as well as the speed and quality of the Dolphins offense, I could see either team pulling out to a big lead early, so this game won’t necessarily be close with just a field goal separating the two teams. Therefore, I think the best odds here are to take the Miami Dolphins moneyline at +150 rather than going with the Dolphins and points.
Walder: I’m all about the Dolphins +3.5 here. For starters ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) already is looking in that direction, making the Ravens 1.9-point favorites. But FPI doesn’t rate more recent performances more heavily, and Miami’s defense is nothing like what it was since the start of the season. As Mina Kimes pointed out, since Week 8 when cornerback Jalen Ramsey returned, the Dolphins rank No. 1 in EPA per play. I know the Ravens are flying high as an elite NFL team after their win over the 49ers. But with a top-tier defense on its side, Miami is right there now, too.
Lions at Cowboys (-5.5, 52.5). How are you betting this game between the 11-4 Lions and 10-5 Cowboys?
Schatz: Weighted DVOA, which gives a bit more strength to recent games, puts Dallas fifth and Detroit seventh. That’s not a huge gap. Both defenses have struggled in recent weeks — the Lions more against the pass and the Cowboys more against the run. The Cowboys have a strong gap between their record at home and on the road, but I don’t know if Lions QB Jared Goff will see his usual road struggles in an indoor road game. He was fine in Minnesota last week. The Cowboys should blitz Goff because their defense improves with a blitz while his performance declines. But, on the other hand, their coverage weakness in the middle of the field seems perfect for Goff to take advantage of with tight end Sam LaPorta and receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. Overall, I think these teams are too close for the line so I would go with Lions +5.5. Also, both offenses are better in the first half of games while the Cowboys defense is much better in the second half of games, so a fun prop here would be first half over 26.5.
Marks: OVER 52.5 (-105). Indoors the Lions are an over machine, averaging 30 PPG. The Cowboys average 39 PPG at home, and will face a Lions red zone defense ranked 28th. Both teams are built for speed on turf. This is the perfect storm for a game into the 60s.
What’s your favorite game to bet on this weekend and why?
Schatz: I think the current line between the Los Angeles Rams and the New York Giants gives a bit too much credit to Tyrod Taylor as the new starting quarterback of the Giants. He may not take quite as many sacks as Daniel Jones or Tommy DeVito, but he still takes plenty, and it’s hard to imagine his overall performance will be much better than what Jones was giving the Giants in the first half of the season. Meanwhile, the Rams are red hot, ranking second in offensive DVOA over the past six weeks while they’ve gone 5-1. Their defense is very average but that should be enough to keep the Giants down. Hopefully their terrible special teams unit doesn’t blow Rams -5.5.
Moody: The Rams and Giants are drawing me in like a moth to the flame, so I’m with Schatz. A Giants team hoping to revitalize their offense has turned back to Taylor. The Rams have their sights set on the playoffs, and a win over the Giants would help tremendously. My recommendation is to bet the over (44.5) considering how QB Matthew Stafford, WR Puka Nacua, WR Cooper Kupp and Rams offense have performed lately. Los Angeles has averaged 29.7 points per game over the last three games. Only the 49ers, Buccaneers and Ravens have averaged more points over that time frame. As for the Rams’ defense, they are a middle-of-the-road unit, giving up 22.1 points per game, so the Giants should be able to score some points. The total has gone over in four of the Rams’ last five games.
What’s your favorite prop bet this weekend?
Schatz: I’ve been going with tight ends against the Cincinnati Bengals all season long, so you might expect me to be heavy on Travis Kelce this weekend. But I propose an alternative: more two-TE sets from the Kansas City Chiefs against the weaker Bengals safeties. That’s why I like Noah Gray OVER 11.5 receiving yards as my favorite prop of this weekend. Note that Gray has topped 20 yards in eight different games this year, and there’s a good chance he can top this prop with a single catch.
Walder: Trey Hendrickson UNDER 0.5 sacks (+125). Patrick Mahomes is coming off a game in which he took four sacks at the hands of the Raiders. But he is still one of the absolute greatest quarterbacks at avoiding sacks, and I’m going to need to see many more bad games before I move off of that belief. After all, he still has the second-lowest sack rate (3.9%) among qualifying quarterbacks. My model makes Hendrickson -150 to go under.
Moody: D’Andre Swift OVER 68.5 rushing yards. The Eagles running back has surpassed this line in four of his last six games. Swift has the added benefit of running behind an offensive line that ranks first in run block win rate. The Cardinals’ defense gives up 147.0 rushing yards per game to opponents, the most in the league. Arizona’s defense has allowed 174.7 rushing yards per game over the last three games. Philadelphia is a double-digit favorite in this game, but given how its secondary has performed this season, the game may be closer than expected. That’s good news for Swift.
Marks: Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 77.5 Total Rushing + Receiving Yards. Dallas’ defense is not great against the run, and can be vulnerable against the screen. This is the perfect matchup for Gibbs.
Is there anything else you’re playing this weekend?
Schatz: The Washington Commanders allow an average of 106 (opponent-adjusted) yards per game to the opposing No. 1 wide receiver. That’s absolutely wild. Yes, the 49ers are going to probably take an early lead and then slow things down with a lot of runs, but I still feel like Brandon Aiyuk should shake-and-bake the poor Commanders cornerbacks for a few big gains. So let’s go with Aiyuk OVER 67.5 receiving yards.
Walder: Pete Werner OVER 5.5 tackles + assists (-125). The Bucs lean run-heavy and that plays right into the hands of the over since almost all linebackers record tackles at a higher rate on running plays than passing plays. The Saints linebacker’s playing time dipped after missing Week 13 with shoulder and oblique injuries but ramped up to 87% of defensive snaps last week. My model projects 6.7 tackles + assists for Werner.
Walder: Chase Young UNDER 0.5 sacks (-110). Sacks are much more a quarterback stat than an offensive line stat, and we can take advantage of that here by betting the under. Jacoby Brissett (5.5% sack rate over last two seasons) is very different than Sam Howell (9.3% in same span) and, partially as a result, my model makes the fair price for Young’s under -137.
Moody: Christian McCaffrey OVER 29.5 receiving yards. The 49ers should be anxious to wash the bad taste out of their mouths after their disappointing loss to the Ravens in Week 16. It doesn’t matter whether Brock Purdy or Sam Darnold is under center, McCaffrey should be heavily involved against a Commanders defense that’s allowing 384.3 total yards per game, the most in the league. This season, McCaffrey has averaged 5.2 targets and 35.8 receiving yards per game. The Commanders have given up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to running backs, which is great news for McCaffrey.
Moody: C.J. Stroud OVER 257.5 passing yards. Before suffering a concussion, he averaged 279.3 passing yards per game and led the league in passing yards. Although Stroud and the Texans are without receiver Tank Dell, they still have Nico Collins, Noah Brown, and Dalton Schultz as his top receiving targets. With the Texans tied with the Colts and Jaguars in the AFC South, the rookie quarterback’s return is crucial. Stroud should have success against a vulnerable Titans secondary.
Source: www.espn.com