SANTA CLARA – If the NFL is the gift that keeps on giving, here comes the greatest present of the regular season.
It’s the NFC-leading 49ers (11-3) against the AFC-leading Baltimore Ravens (11-3) in the ultimate Christmas party at Levi’s Stadium on “Monday Night Football.”
“It’s a hyped-up matchup. It’s Christmas. Everyone will be watching,” 49ers left tackle Trent Williams said. “In the football world, we’ve had some heavyweight matchups. Not just us, but every team. It’s been really good for the sport.”
Only once before in NFL history have both conference’s leading teams met this late in a regular season, when Super Bowl-bound Seattle beat Indianapolis in 2005.
Only once before have the 49ers played on Christmas, a 10-7 loss to the then-Houston Oilers at Candlestick Park 30 years ago. The Niners’ offensive coordinator was Mike Shanahan. His son, Kyle, is now in his seventh season as the 49ers’ coach, and this is looking like his best team.
All of which paints this matchup as a potential Super Bowl preview.
“The Super Bowl is in February. We’re in December right now,” Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson told Baltimore reporters. “We have to focus on Monday night. I’m not worried about what people are saying.”
A month from now, 49ers fans will realize greater stakes are on the line at Levi’s Stadium, when the playoff opener arrives, either in the divisional round or, aghast, in the wild-card round.
The 49ers are poised to secure home-field advantage and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. They can do so simply by winning two of their final three games, with more tiebreaker weight leaning on the Dec. 31 game at Washington and the Week 17 matchup with the Los Angeles Rams.
If the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) and the Detroit Lions (10-4) lose Sunday on the road at Minnesota and Miami, respectively, and if the Philadelphia Eagles (10-4) fall Monday afternoon at home against the New York Giants, then the 49ers could clinch the No. 1 seed with a win over the Ravens.
Here are the keys to securing that victory:
1. Don’t lose track of Lamar
Jackson is the Ravens’ leading rusher for the fifth straight season. Keep that in mind while everyone fawns over a Ravens’ passing attack that’s improved under this year’s transition of offensive coordinators, from former 49ers’ play caller Greg Roman to Todd Monken.
Jackson is completing a career-high 66.3 percent of his passes and his 3,127 yards are 22 off his 2019 MVP season, when he also ran for 1,206 yards; he’s run for 741 yards and five touchdowns this year.
“He’s trying to sit in there a little more and go through his reads,” Nick Bosa said of Jackson’s pocket presence. “(They’re) not quite as run-heavy but they’re the No. 1 rushing team in the league, so it’s obviously something we’re going to have to deal with.”
Jackson’s unique ability to run the ball, scramble out of trouble, and throw on the run creates havoc. The 49ers should counter by expanding their standard four-man front, which could mean more blitzes than usual or assigning a linebacker (see: Fred Warner or Dre Greenlaw) to spy Jackson. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks is emphasizing discipline (see: do your job) at every level.
Three weeks ago, the 49ers exercised patience to clog the pocket as a successful strategy against the Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts. Last Sunday, the 49ers allowed three runs of at least 12 yards to Arizona’s Kyler Murray. One emphasis this game must be to wrap up Jackson, so he doesn’t break tackles. Another key: force a fumble, as he’s lost 4-of-11 this season.
2. PURDY’S READING HOUR
The Ravens come in with an NFL-high 50 sacks. Not only does their defensive front bring the heat, but linebackers and defensive backs will attack, too. Brock Purdy faces his biggest challenging in diagnosing who’s coming at him, with the protection-call help of center Jake Brendel.
“It’s really hard for a team to get a bead on who’s coming and who’s not,” Williams said. “They do a good job of keeping your eligible (receivers) in (to block). They do what we call a simulated pressure, where it seems they’re sending a lot of guys (to pass rush), but they’re only sending four and still dropping seven.”
If that happens, for instance, then tight end George Kittle could find himself as an in-line blocker, rather than roam into space against safety Kyle Hamilton’s pass coverage, which will be a matchup to watch.
“I like our game plan,” Kittle volunteered. “Coach Shanahan did a really good job in giving Brock options and mixing in everything from extra protection to winning hot routes.”
Aside from blitzing interlopers, the 49ers must focus on defensive tackle Justin Madubuike (11 sacks) and defensive end Jadeveon Clowney (50 ½ sacks in 10-year career). The Ravens have notched a sack in 35 straight games, the NFL’s longest active streak and a franchise record.
3. MORE McCAFFREY MAGIC
You may have heard a million times this week that Purdy and Jackson are the odds-on favorites for the NFL MVP award. This game’s winner figures to secure that honor, unless running back and offensive catalyst Christian McCaffrey struts his stuff, showing why he earned the MVP endorsements of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
“Honestly I don’t worry about that stuff,” McCaffrey said. “Everybody on this team is worried about just playing this game.”
McCaffrey is closing in on his first NFL rushing crown and the 49ers’ first since Joe “The Jet” Perry in 1954. McCaffrey’s 1,292 yards are 235 more than the Rams’ Kyren Williams (he played Thursday night) and over 300 more than the Bills’ James Cook and the Dolphins’ Raheem Mostert. McCaffrey has 13 rushing touchdowns and seven receiving, so he is just three scores shy of Jerry Rice’s franchise record.
McCaffrey did not appear on the 49ers’ injury report this week, after having a knee taped for support last game. In his way this game is the NFL’s No. 3-ranked rushing defense, yielding 92.1 yards per game. However, the Ravens have been generous the past five games, allowing 4.8 yards per carry, an average that would rank second-worst in the NFL for the season.
When it comes to linebackers Roquan Smith (143 tackles, 1 ½ sacks) and Patrick Queen (112 tackles, 3 ½ sacks), coach Kyle Shanahan said those two “make the defense go” and more “most comparable “ to the 49ers’ tandem of Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw.
4. BETTER RUN DEFENSE
The Ravens have rushed for over 100 yards in a NFL- best 30 consecutive games. The 49ers missed 100 tackles last game. OK, not really, but the Cardinals did run for 234 yards (30 carries), and that should invite the Ravens’ No. 1 rushing attack to attempt the same.
Gus Edwards’ frame (6-foot-1, 238 pounds) makes him a similar, bruising back to the Cardinals’ James Conner. Edwards has 663 yards and 11 rushing touchdowns, and the Ravens figure to lean on him more – with options in Melvin Gordon III and Justic Hill — after losing speedy rookie Keaton Mitchell to a knee injury last game.
The 49ers proved vulnerable up the middle last game without defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Arik Armstead; Hargrave is questionable to play Monday, and Armstead is out a third straight game. Javon Kinlaw and Kevin Givens must execute better gap control and anchor down to allow the 49ers’ linebackers and safeties a clear path to the ball carrier. Clearing the Ravens’ path are center Tyler Linderbaum, guard Kevin Zeitler and fullback Patrick Ricard.
5. ANSWER OPENING BELL
The 49ers have converted their opening possession into a touchdown in nine games this season. No team since 2000 has scored as many points on debut drives as the 49ers, with 66 points.
“One of the cool stats coach Shanahan showed us is they’re the No. 1 defense in the first quarter in the NFL because they kind of come out and surprise you with how they’re going to hit you in the face,” Kittle said. “And I respect the hell out of them for that.”
The Ravens have outscored opponents 96-25 in the first quarter; the 49ers own a 93-53, first-quarter advantage.
For what it’s worth, the 49ers scored on the opening drive (Jimmy Garoppolo 33-yard touchdown pass to Deebo Samuel) when these teams last met, on Dec. 1, 2019, when the Ravens won 20-19 on Justin Tucker’s last-second field goal.
“Different team, same mindset, same mentality it kind of seems like on film,” Kittle said. “They’re going to, I don’t want to say bully, they’re going to bring it every single play and be physical.”
Williams said that mentality has been ingrained in the Ravens under coach John Harbaugh, who’s already clinched his 11th playoff berth in 16 seasons, including, of course, the 2012 season’s Super Bowl win over a 49ers team coached by his younger brother, Jim.
“We match up well against anybody, basically, and we like our players a lot,” John Harbaugh said. “We have really excellent players, the highest-level players. It’s going to be hard for us not to match up well. It’s going to be hard to outmatch us – I don’t care who you are.”
Source: www.mercurynews.com