Summary
The Federal Reserve wrapped up its latest Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday and, as expected, held the federal funds rate steady at 5.25%-5.50%. This was the third pause following a hike in July, which was the eleventh increase to fed funds over a period of 16 months. The fed funds rate remains at its highest level since 2000 and is above the long-term average of 4.4%. The hikes so far have been working to reduce inflation. The latest core CPI reading was 4.0%, down from 9.1% in July 2022; the latest core PCE Price Index reading was 3.5%. (Despite the downtrends, both of course are still well above the Fed’s target of 2.0%.) The decision on Wednesday was widely expected, and the real drama from the meeting, if anywhere, was in the Summary of Economic Projections report that was published by the central bank after the meeting concluded. In the previous report, the central bank had indicated that it felt one more hike would be coming in 2023, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointedly did not rule out more hikes in 2024 in his remarks yesterday. But nobody was really paying attention. Looking ahead to 2024, the Federal Reserve is preparing investors for rate cuts — as many as three. According to the latest fed funds “dot plot” forecasts by the governors, the central bank’s target for the rate at year-end 2024 is 4.625%. The easing is expected to continue into 2025 and 2026, at which point the federal funds rate should be below 3.0%, according to the Fed’s forecasts. Fixed-income traders are not so sure, as the current three-year Treasury yield is still 4.2%. But equity investors are seemingly all in, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has closed at a new high above 37,000, just in time for the holiday season.
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Source: finance.yahoo.com