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NFL Nation, ESPN
The Week 9 NFL schedule for the 2023 season is stacked with great matchups, and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game and a bold prediction for each matchup.
Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a game projection. NFL analyst Matt Bowen picks out each matchup’s biggest X factor, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody hands out helpful fantasy football intel. Finally, analytics writer Seth Walder and Moody give us final score picks for every game. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.
Let’s get into the full Week 9 slate, including the Dolphins and Chiefs squaring off in Germany, the Cowboys visiting the 7-1 Eagles and a Josh Allen–Joe Burrow showdown. It all culminates with a “Monday Night Football” matchup between the Los Angeles Chargers and the New York Jets on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)
Jump to a matchup:
MIA-KC | MIN-ATL | ARI-CLE
LAR-GB | WSH-NE | CHI-NO
SEA-BAL | TB-HOU | IND-CAR
NYG-LV | DAL-PHI | BUF-CIN | LAC-NYJ
Thursday: PIT 20, TEN 16
Bye: DEN, DET, SF, JAX
9:30 a.m. ET | NFL Network | Spread: KC -1.5 (50.5)
Storyline to watch: The Chiefs get their first chance to see what it’s like to defend their former receiver Tyreek Hill. The decisions they make in how to cover Miami’s biggest threat and how successful those are could well determine the outcome. The Chiefs have at times used L’Jarius Sneed to shadow other top receivers this season, but Hill is in a category of his own — he is leading the league with 1,014 receiving yards, eight touchdowns and 382 yards after the catch (YAC). — Adam Teicher
Bold prediction: The Dolphins will force quarterback Patrick Mahomes to do something he has done only twice in his career — throw multiple interceptions in consecutive games. Mahomes has thrown eight interceptions this season. After going three straight weeks without forcing a turnover, Miami’s defense has takeaways in back-to-back games. With the Jalen Ramsey–Xavien Howard defensive back tandem active Sunday, the Dolphins will keep that streak alive against the Chiefs. — Marcel Louis-Jacques
Stat to know: Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has 17 straight games with a passing touchdown, the longest active streak in the NFL and the fourth longest in Dolphins history (Dan Marino has the three of their longest streaks, with a high of 30 straight).
Matchup X factor: Chiefs DT Chris Jones. There’s a matchup advantage here for Jones rushing from edge alignments against Dolphins right tackle Austin Jackson. Jones has a pass rush win rate of 26.2% when rushing off the edge this season. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: Rashee Rice led all Chiefs wide receivers in snaps played last week against the Broncos. Over the past four games, he has averaged 5.0 targets and 12.7 fantasy points. The Chiefs’ offense is expected to rebound in a shootout against the Dolphins, and Rice could play a key role with a favorable matchup against Dolphins slot cornerback Kader Kohou. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread (ATS) as favorites and 1-2 ATS as underdogs this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 30, Dolphins 24
Walder’s pick: Dolphins 28, Chiefs 24
FPI prediction: K.C., 50.8% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Hill says Chiefs ‘going to get this work’ … Chiefs sticking with their wide receivers … Holland clears protocol, rejoins Dolphins’ secondary
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: ATL -4.5 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: If you like unknowns, this game is for you. Both Atlanta and Minnesota are starting new quarterbacks — Taylor Heinicke in place of Desmond Ridder (benched) and Jaren Hall in for Kirk Cousins (torn Achilles). Both played last week, but how they handle a full week of prep as the starters no one will truly know until Sunday. Heinicke has 25 career starts, mostly with Washington, under his belt, while Hall is a rookie out of BYU making his first career start. It’ll be the third rookie quarterback Atlanta will face in their first-ever start this season (the others are Carolina’s Bryce Young in Week 1 and Tennessee’s Will Levis last week). — Michael Rothstein
Bold prediction: The over/under on this game is 37.5, but the teams will combine for fewer than 30 points. The Vikings’ defense is on a roll, having limited opponents to 13.3 points per game over the past three weeks, while the Falcons felt compelled this week to elevate their backup quarterback (Heinicke) to revive their offense. The Vikings will start Hall, who won’t have Justin Jefferson (hamstring) to throw to and might not be able to count on a running game that is averaging 73.3 yards per game, the second-lowest in the NFL. — Kevin Seifert
Stat to know: Both teams enter with a 4-4 record. Eight of the 13 teams that started 5-4 in the past two seasons made the playoffs. Two of the eight teams that started 4-5 in the past two seasons made the playoffs.
Matchup X factor: Falcons S Jessie Bates III. The Falcons will use late movement and disguise from two-high shells, with Bates spinning down to jump in-breakers against Hall. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: While the Vikings might want to run the ball more with rookie Hall under center, they will face a Falcons defense that ranks eighth in run stop win rate. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their past seven games. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Falcons 24, Vikings 14
Walder’s pick: Vikings 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: MIN, 50.8% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: As Hall preps to start, Vikings open to Cousins’ return in 2024 … Why the Falcons made the change at starting quarterback … Cousins undergoes surgery on torn Achilles … Falcons elevate Heinicke to starting QB against Vikings
2:21
O’Connell tells McAfee how Vikings decided to trade for Josh Dobbs
Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell joins Pat McAfee to break down the team trading for Josh Dobbs after Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: CLE -8 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: The Cardinals and Browns enter this game with massive uncertainty at quarterback. Rookie Clayton Tune will likely be making his debut for the Cardinals, though Kyler Murray is healthy again and could be ready to play, too. The Browns, meanwhile, are still wondering if Deshaun Watson will be back from his shoulder injury or if PJ Walker will make his third start in four games. — Jake Trotter
Bold prediction: If Tune indeed gets his first career start, he will throw for fewer than 150 yards. The Browns will certainly pin their ears back and get after the rookie. The Browns’ top-rated defense allows just 163.3 passing yards per game and will give Tune his welcome-to-the-NFL moment. — Josh Weinfuss
Stat to know: The Browns’ offense have averaged 155 rushing yards in their past three outings since the bye week, the most in the league. Arizona allows 130.6 rushing yards per game, the eighth-most in the NFL.
Matchup X factor: Browns DE Myles Garrett. He will align on both edges as a pass-rusher — meaning he will see both Arizona tackles, D.J. Humphries and Paris Johnson Jr. — and he owns a pass rush win rate of 31.3%. That’s second best in the league behind Micah Parsons. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: Browns receiver Amari Cooper is positioned for success against a Cardinals defense that gives up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to receivers. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their past five games after starting the season 3-0 ATS. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Browns 27, Cardinals 17
Walder’s pick: Browns 20, Cardinals 9
FPI prediction: CLE, 69.3% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Tune eager for opportunity … Browns trade People-Jones for ’25 6th-rounder … Former Cardinals employees describe life under Bidwill … Walker’s late woes highlight Browns’ need for Watson’s return
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: GB -3.5 (38.5)
Storyline to watch: The Packers’ opponents have jumped on them from the start of games this season, so look for the Rams to continue that trend. Green Bay has gone five straight games without a first-half touchdown — tied for the second-longest streak by a team in the past 10 seasons. However, the Rams might need Matthew Stafford, who is day-to-day because of a thumb injury, to do it. Coach Sean McVay is 3-7 without Stafford or Jared Goff starting. — Rob Demovsky
Bold prediction: Packers QB Jordan Love ends his interception streak, throwing none on Sunday. He has thrown an interception in five straight games, which is the longest streak by a Packers player since Aaron Rodgers did the same in 2010. Love also has a league-high eight interceptions since the start of Week 3, according to ESPN Stats & Information. But the Rams’ defense has just four interceptions this season, which is tied for 24th in the NFL. — Sarah Barshop
Stat to know: The Packers have a minus-59 point differential in first half of games this season. That’s tied with the Giants for second worst in the NFL. But Green Bay gets better in the second half: The Packers are plus-43 in the second half, which is the second-best margin in the NFL.
Matchup X factor: Packers WR Christian Watson. Watson hasn’t logged a touchdown reception since Week 4, though he did see three end zone targets in the Week 8 loss to Minnesota. Green Bay can isolate Watson in scoring position against the Rams’ cornerbacks on fades and in-breakers. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: The Packers’ defense allows the sixth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Rams’ offensive line ranks 11th in run block win rate, which bodes well for the fantasy outlooks of Darrell Henderson Jr. and Royce Freeman. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the past 10 seasons (the last five-game ATS losing streak was in 2013, six straight). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Rams 23, Packers 14
Walder’s pick: Packers 26, Rams 13
FPI prediction: LAR, 58.5% (by an average of 2.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Stafford day-to-day with thumb injury … Packers GM: Need more time to evaluate Love … Packers’ struggles extend beyond Love
1 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: NE -3 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: Washington’s last visit to New England came in November 2015. Something will have to give in this matchup, considering that the Commanders rank 31st in the NFL in average points allowed (28.5), while the Mac Jones-led Patriots rank 31st in points scored (14.8). Furthermore, the Sam Howell-led Commanders are 31st in sacks allowed (41), but the Patriots’ defense is just 30th in sacks (15). — Mike Reiss
Bold prediction: A Washington receiver will finally produce a 100-yard game for the first time this season. Over the past five weeks, New England ranks last in the NFL in opposing QBR at 69.7. The Patriots have allowed the 30th most passing yards during this stretch; some of that stems from offenses they’ve faced — Dallas, Miami and Buffalo — and some of that is due to injuries and a lack of a pass rush. Commanders receivers Terry McLaurin (90 yards) and Jahan Dotson (99) have come close to the 100-yard mark this season, but Sunday will be the day. — John Keim
Stat to know: The Patriots are 0-4 outside of their division, the only team in the NFL without a non-divisional victory. They have had six consecutive non-divisional losses dating back to Week 15 of last season vs. the Raiders. This is the team’s longest such streak since losing seven straight in 1995.
Matchup X factor: Howell. He has completed 75.3% of his passes targeting the middle of the field, with 11 explosive-play throws. And he’ll have more opportunities to rip the ball up the seams against the Patriots’ Cover 2 and Cover 3 zones. — Bowen
Injuries: Commanders | Patriots
What to know for fantasy: Commanders opponents average 256.8 passing yards per game and 7.5 yards per attempt. On Sunday, the Patriots’ passing game should find some success. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Commanders are 3-0 ATS as road underdogs this season (2-1 outright). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Commanders 27, Patriots 20
Walder’s pick: Patriots 19, Commanders 16
FPI prediction: NE, 56.2% (by an average of 2.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Commanders traded Sweat, Young … What Bourne’s injury means for Jones, Patriots … Rivera: Trades ‘opportunity’ for other players
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: NO -8.5 (41.5)
Storyline to watch: The Saints’ offense might have started to click, putting up more than 400 net yards in the past three games and scoring their highest point total of the season (38) against the Colts last week. They’ll face a Bears defense that is coming off a game in which it gave up 30 points to the Chargers, so New Orleans will have a good chance of building off its offensive momentum. — Katherine Terrell
Bold prediction: New Bears pass-rusher Montez Sweat will play just five days after getting traded to Chicago and record his first two-sack game of the season against a Saints offensive line that has fielded five different combinations this season. — Courtney Cronin
Stat to know: Saints QB Derek Carr has had three straight games with at least 300 passing yards, tying the second-longest streak of his NFL career (he had a run of five straight spanning the 2020 and 2021 seasons).
Matchup X factor: Saints RB Alvin Kamara. The Bears have played zone coverage on 64.8% of opponent dropbacks, which creates space underneath for Kamara to attack open turf off backfield releases and show off his catch-and-run traits. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: Chicago’s defense gives up the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks — which bodes well for Carr. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Overs are 16-9 in Bears games under coach Matt Eberflus, the highest over percentage in the NFL the past two seasons. Unders are 17-8 in Saints games in that span (tied for third highest under percentage). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Saints 28, Bears 14
Walder’s pick: Saints 24, Bears 21
FPI prediction: NO, 67.3% (by an average of 6.1 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bears ‘confident’ they can sign Sweat to new deal … Saints play through stomach bug to have best offensive day … Bears fire Walker over workplace behavior, source confirms
0:59
How disappointed should Chris Olave managers be this season?
Daniel Dopp reflects on Chris Olave’s struggles this season with the Saints.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: BAL -6 (44.5)
Storyline to watch: Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson has thrived under pressure, producing the highest yards per attempt (10.2) and second-highest completion percentage (55%) when under duress. He faces a Seahawks pass rush that ranks 10th in pressure rate (32%) and has recorded the fifth-most sacks this season (26). — Jamison Hensley
Bold prediction: Seahawks running backs Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet will combine for at least 30 carries. Charbonnet has made a case for more work after gaining a season-high 53 yards on only five attempts last week. The rookie second-round pick hasn’t had more than nine attempts in a game yet, and he and Walker haven’t combined for more than 27. But that should change Sunday as the Seahawks try to take pressure off quarterback Geno Smith, who has thrown five interceptions over his past three games. — Brady Henderson
Stat to know: Baltimore’s defense has allowed the lowest QBR and fewest yards per attempt when using zone coverage this season, while allowing zero touchdowns to five interceptions. For Seattle, Smith ranks top 10 in the NFL in QBR and yards per attempt when using zone coverage.
Matchup X factor: Ravens WR Zay Flowers. Look for him to catch some screen passes on run-pass option concepts. Flowers has 17 screen receptions this season, and the Ravens can take the numbers advantages on the perimeter to get Flowers loose in space. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: The Ravens have scored 61% of their touchdowns on the ground, the second-highest rate in the league. In consecutive games, Gus Edwards has surpassed 14 rushing attempts and scored 20-plus fantasy points. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Ravens are 5-11 ATS as home favorites since 2021 (most home ATS losses of any team). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Ravens 31, Seahawks 24
Walder’s pick: Ravens 20, Seahawks 16
FPI prediction: BAL, 69.5% (by an average of 6.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants trade Williams to Seahawks for two picks … Why the Chiefs, Dolphins, Jaguars and Ravens can win the AFC
2:11
Which Gus Edwards will show up in Week 9?
Field Yates and Daniel Dopp examine the boom-or-bust fantasy potential Gus Edwards provides.
1 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: HOU -3 (39.5)
Storyline to watch: It’s worth keeping an eye on how Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles attacks Texans rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud on defense, because that could be the determining factor in who wins this game. Why? It’s a clash of two styles. The Buccaneers blitz on 39% of opposing quarterbacks’ dropbacks, resulting in a passer rating of 84.1. But Stroud has a passer rating of 117.0 when blitzed, which ranks the fourth best. — DJ Bien-Aime
Bold prediction: The Buccaneers will force Stroud to turn the ball over twice. The Texans rookie has done a tremendous job taking care of the football — he has just one interception and three fumbles (two lost) this season — but this Buccaneers defense, even amid a three-game losing streak, is still one of the better units in the league at taking the ball away. Tampa Bay’s defense is tied for the third-most turnovers (14) in the NFL this season. — Jenna Laine
Stat to know: The Buccaneers are averaging 77.9 rushing yards per game, which ranks 30th in the NFL ahead of only the Vikings (73.3) and the Raiders (70.0). The Bucs are the only team to average fewer than 80 rushing yards (77.2) over the past two seasons.
Matchup X factor: Texans WR Nico Collins. Houston can scheme up some throws to him against three-deep zone and create vacated voids for Collins, who has already caught 13 explosive-play receptions this season. — Bowen
Injuries: Buccaneers | Texans
What to know for fantasy: The Buccaneers’ defense gives up the fifth-most passing yards per game and the 10th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Tampa Bay’s defensive front also ranks 26th in pass rush win rate, which bodes well for Stroud and the Texans’ offense. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Texans have lost five straight games outright as favorites dating to 2020 (0-2 this season). That is the second-longest active streak in the NFL (Panthers are at nine straight). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Texans 20, Buccaneers 17
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Buccaneers 16
FPI prediction: HOU, 50.6% (by an average of 0.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Bucs trying to end three-game skid after hot start … Stroud, Texans look to bounce back after worst performance
4:05 p.m. ET | CBS | Spread: IND -2.5 (43.5)
Storyline to watch: Panthers coach Frank Reich is facing the team that fired him nine games into last season, and this game has a chance to be entertaining. The Colts have given up an average of 38 points during a three-game losing streak. Quarterback Bryce Young and the Panthers are finding themselves offensively, with no turnovers in the past two games. But this could come down to the running game. Indianapolis ranks ninth in the NFL averaging 129 rushing yards, while Carolina ranks 29th in rush defense, giving up 139.4 yards per game. — David Newton
Bold prediction: The Colts will rush for a season-high 200 yards or more, with coach Shane Steichen finally fully embracing the running game as a primary means of attack. Jonathan Taylor has been steadily heating up in the past couple of weeks, while Zack Moss continues to build on his fast start. — Stephen Holder
Stat to know: Colts QB Gardner Minshew has turned the ball over nine times since Week 6, the most in the NFL. He has thrown an interception in three consecutive games and is looking to avoid being the first Colts quarterback with an interception in four consecutive games since Andrew Luck in 2014.
Matchup X factor: Taylor. He is averaging 5.7 yards per carry on rushes outside of the tackles, and his workload should increase versus the Panthers. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: The Panthers’ defense allows the second-most fantasy points per game to running backs. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Panthers are 1-5-1 ATS this season, the only team in the NFL to not cover multiple games this season. They are 1-1-1 ATS at home (unders are 3-0). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Colts 28, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Colts 27, Panthers 10
FPI prediction: IND, 59.5% (by an average of 3.3 points)
Matchup must-reads: The good and bad of the Colts and Minshew … Facing Colts not a ‘personal thing’ for Reich … In first win, Young shows why Panthers took him No. 1
0:36
Where does Michael Pittman Jr. rank in Week 9?
Liz Loza slots Michael Pittman Jr. as a WR2 in the Colts’ matchup against the Panthers.
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: LV -1.5 (37.5)
Storyline to watch: Antonio Pierce won a Super Bowl with the Giants. He was named to a Pro Bowl playing linebacker for the Giants. And now he makes his debut as an NFL interim coach going against the Giants while leading the team he grew up rooting for in Los Angeles. No wonder he started his first practice to the musical strains of seminal rap group N.W.A.’s “Straight Outta Compton.” As Raiders owner Mark Davis told ESPN, he doesn’t necessarily want Pierce to “coach” the Raiders so much as “lead” them against the Giants, as the Raiders try to reboot their season. — Paul Gutierrez
Bold prediction: Giants running back Saquon Barkley will rush for 150 yards. He is playing an enormous number of snaps (90% last week vs. Jets) and gets to face a run defense allowing 140 yards per game. This is a matchup for him to excel, especially because he’s running behind an offensive line getting back both its starting tackles. — Jordan Raanan
Stat to know: The Raiders have won two straight home games after losing their home opener in Week 3 to Pittsburgh. They have not won three straight at home since moving to Las Vegas in 2020.
Matchup X factor: The Giants’ blitz concepts. Wink Martindale’s defense has a blitz rate of 43.0%, the second highest in the league, and the Giants have racked up 10 sacks in their past two games. Now they get rookie QB Aidan O’Connell. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: With O’Connell as the Raiders’ starter, receiver Davante Adams should stockpile targets against the Giants. Over the course of his career, the veteran receiver has averaged nearly 2.0 fantasy points per target. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: Giants games are 7-1 to the under this season with seven straight unders. The .875 under percentage is tied with the Vikings for the highest in the NFL. And all three Raiders home games have gone under the total this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Raiders 20, Giants 10
Walder’s pick: Giants 23, Raiders 6
FPI prediction: NYG, 58.6% (by an average of 3 points)
Matchup must-reads: Giants focus on the future with Williams trade … Davis on firings: Raiders were heading in ‘wrong direction’ … Waller potentially out weeks with hamstring injury … Answering six questions about the McDaniels/Ziegler firings
4:25 p.m. ET | FOX | Spread: PHI -3 (46.5)
Storyline to watch: Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott did not play against each other last season because of injuries — Prescott was sidelined for the Eagles’ win in the first matchup, and Hurts was out for the Cowboys’ victory later in the year. Both quarterbacks come into this highly anticipated division matchup fresh off four-touchdown performances in their last outing. They lead two of the most prolific scoring teams in football: Dallas ranks second (28.1) and Philadelphia is third (28.0) in points per game. — Tim McManus
Bold prediction: A.J. Brown‘s streak of 125 yards receiving will come to an end at six games. But that doesn’t mean he won’t go for 100 yards. He and DeVonta Smith were the last receivers to have more than 100 yards against the Cowboys, doing so last December. This year, the Cowboys have not allowed more than 86 yards receiving in a game to a wide receiver, so it will be tough. — Todd Archer
Stat to know: Prescott has fared extremely well against the NFC East, going 28-7 in his career. It’s not just the wins and losses. Prescott has thrown 61 touchdown passes to 19 interceptions in those 35 division starts. Only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes have a better touchdown-to-interception ratio in division games since the 1970 merger (minimum 25 starts).
Matchup X factor: Eagles TE Dallas Goedert. The Eagles will see heavy man coverage from the Cowboys on third down, and they can deploy Goedert underneath to work away from coverage against safety Jayron Kearse. Watch for him to run some crossing routes here and find success. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: The Eagles’ defense has allowed the seventh-most passing yards per game. But against a Philadelphia defensive front that ranks second in run stop win rate, running backs are scoring the fewest fantasy points per game. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 14-7 ATS on the road over the past three seasons, the second-best road ATS record in the NFL (Bengals are 15-6). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Eagles 35, Cowboys 28
Walder’s pick: Eagles 27, Cowboys 26
FPI prediction: PHI, 49.9% (by an average of 0 points)
Matchup must-reads: Why Cowboys’ Prescott-Lamb connection is back on track … Gainwell ‘made mistake’ with social media reply at halftime … Cowboys back on track ahead of Week 9 Eagles showdown
1:24
Is Cowboys-Eagles a ‘must-win’ for Dallas?
Kimberley A. Martin and Damien Woody agree the Cowboys must beat the Eagles to be a top seed in the NFC.
8:20 p.m. ET | NBC | Spread: CIN -1.5 (49.5)
Storyline to watch: Cincinnati’s defense is going up against one of the NFL’s best quarterbacks. Buffalo’s Josh Allen leads the league in Total QBR (77.1) and completion percentage (71.7%) and ranks third with 17 passing touchdowns entering Sunday’s game. The Bengals are on a three-game winning streak, and their defense has improved. Since Week 5, they rank sixth in opposing Total QBR (40.4) and are first in turnovers forced per drive (22.9%). — Ben Baby
Bold prediction: Allen will throw at least two interceptions. He has thrown an interception in each of the past four games and is going against a Cincinnati defense that has forced 10 interceptions, the third most in the NFL. In addition, he is dealing with a right shoulder injury that led to limiting the amount he throws leading up to the game, including not participating in practice Wednesday. — Alaina Getzenberg
Stat to know: Allen has been extremely difficult to bring down when pressured, posting the second-lowest sack rate in the league. The Bengals’ defense will look to change that Sunday; Cincinnati ranks 12th in pressure rate this season.
Matchup X factor: Bengals CB Mike Hilton. With his deployment on slot pressures, the Bengals can manipulate the Bills’ protection schemes to create open pass-rushing lanes for Hilton to disrupt the pocket. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: Running back Joe Mixon and the Bengals’ running game are positioned to have success against a Bills defense that has allowed the eighth-most rushing yards and 12th-most fantasy points per game. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Bills are 0-4 ATS in their past four games, tied for their longest ATS losing streak in the past 40 seasons. Their last five-game ATS losing streak was in 1976-77 (six straight). Read more.
Moody’s pick: Bengals 33, Bills 30
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Bengals 23
FPI prediction: BUF, 66.9% (by an average of 5.9 points)
Matchup must-reads: Allen misses practice to rest injured shoulder … How Hamlin and Boyd’s friendship overrides football, adversity … How Hamlin’s cardiac arrest affected the sporting world … Bengals relish snapping 49ers’ home streak
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | Spread: LAC -3.5 (40.5)
Storyline to watch: It’s the Jets’ stingy defense (18.4 points per game) versus another member of the mega-rich QB club, Justin Herbert. Against Josh Allen ($258 million), Patrick Mahomes ($450 million) and Jalen Hurts ($255 million), the Jets recorded eight interceptions and “embarrassed” those quarterbacks, according to coach Robert Saleh. Herbert ($262.5 million) is coming off one of his best games, narrowly missing his 25th 300-yard passing day (298 vs. Chicago). — Rich Cimini
Bold prediction: Jets receiver Garrett Wilson will have 150 yards receiving. The Chargers have been among the worst pass defenses in the NFL, allowing the most passing yards per game in the NFL (297.4) by a significant margin. The Chargers have particularly struggled with top receivers, including CeeDee Lamb (7 catches, 117 yards) and Justin Jefferson (7 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD). Wilson could be next in line for a big day. — Kris Rhim
Stat to know: Herbert has been one of the league’s best quarterbacks against the blitz, posting a 90 QBR with 10 passing touchdowns to two interceptions, but has struggled to put up similar numbers against a standard pass rush. He’ll look to change that on “Monday Night Football” against the Jets, who blitz at the second-lowest rate of any defense in the NFL this season.
Matchup X factor: Play-action passing. Chargers QB Herbert has completed 75.4% of his passes on play-action this season, with a Total QBR of 84.6 there. That will be key against the Jets’ split-safety coverages. — Bowen
What to know for fantasy: The Chargers’ defense allows the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Wilson has averaged 1.4 fantasy points per target during his career, which is great news for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on this matchup. See Week 9 rankings. — Moody
Betting nugget: The Chargers are 0-3 outright and ATS against teams over .500 this season. Read more.
Moody’s pick: Chargers 24, Jets 21
Walder’s pick: Chargers 38, Jets 13
FPI prediction: LAC, 60.4% (by an average of 3.6 points)
Matchup must-reads: Jets’ O-line takes more hits as McGovern, Schweitzer to IR
Source: www.espn.com