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Liz Loza, ESPN
Fantasy football is a passion for many. Sometimes that passion causes fantasy managers to make emotional decisions even when the data suggest otherwise. Each week during the 2023 NFL season Liz Loza will attempt to strike a balance between what the data states and what the heart wants. This is called Facts vs. Feelings.
Are you a “beach person” or a “mountain person?” It’s one of those this-or-that type questions that pop up on personality quizzes. I’ve noticed that the older I get the more I find myself reaching for the solitude of the hills over the chaos of the waves.
Don’t get me wrong, I’ll adventure in pretty much any place with (all things being equal) anyone. I love to scuba dive and I’ve gotten up on a surfboard a few times. But there’s something magical about testing your breath and body while efforting up uneven terrain with the aim of reaching a specific top. The view exists as an uncomplicated pay off for the climb.
I enjoy this one-for-one gratification so much that hiking has become a weekly ritual. Yes, it’s a way to stay in shape. It also serves as a space for me to clear my mind and reset my focus. Value is added to this practice when acknowledging the unrelenting cadence of the NFL season. Each week presents a new precipice to discover, explore, and scale. The wiping of the slate and starting again (… and again… and again) can gradually morph from exciting to exhausting.
This concept was articulated brilliantly by Jill Smoller (a legendary sports agent, who represents Serena Williams, among other star athletes), who remarked that the ascent of her career was much easier to achieve than maintaining its longevity. That is to say, getting somewhere isn’t the hard part. Staying at the top, however, can be grueling.
Wise words that apply to a vast number of situations and circumstances. For fantasy managers, the rising stakes of each passing week create a proportional amount of pressure. Teams with losing records begin to fret over their seasons evaporating seemingly before they even began. Winning squads press on refusing to become complacent, understanding that injuries and trade deadlines can derail even the most ferocious momentum.
So, we stay sharp and fight to hang on to (or improve upon) what we’ve built thus far. We weigh new facts and steel our feelings with the aim of forging ahead. It is, after all, about the journey … right? Or is that something someone who finishes in sixth place says?
Right.
Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions: Goff likely has complicated feelings about his journeys outside of the Detroit metro area. His home/road splits are … something. When under center at Ford Field, Goff has averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, a 73% completion percentage, a 7-2 TD-INT ratio and 22.8 fantasy points per game. Conversely, when he’s away those numbers crater, dipping to 6.9 yards per attempt, a 65% completion percentage, a 4-2 TD-INT ratio, and 14.3 fantasy points per game.
Yikes.
The Lions were trucked by the Ravens last Sunday, falling 6-38 at Baltimore. Goff managed fewer than 10 fantasy points in the outing and closed out the week as fantasy QB24. Interestingly, Dan Campbell (whom we know loves to compete) kept his starters (Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta) on the field long after the contest was out of reach. That provides Goff with a sneaky bit of security. It didn’t make a discernible difference in Week 7, but the trend can only help this upcoming weekend versus the Raiders.
Vegas has been middle of the pack against QBs, giving up an average of 15 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. However, the Raiders have not faced a murder’s row of passers (with Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Russell Wilson being the only top-10 FF QBs to have battled the Silver and Black). Still, Vegas has allowed the eighth-highest completion percentage (68.8%) to opposing quarterbacks. The opportunity — at home and surrounded by high-end receiving talent — screams bounce-back for Goff and his fantasy investors.
Darrell Henderson Jr., RB, Los Angeles Rams: If Goff is eyeing a rebound, then his former teammate mounted a full-on comeback last Sunday. Henderson went straight from his sofa to playing 57% of the Rams snaps (14% more than Royce Freeman) in Week 7. The boomerang back led L.A.’s backfield, recording 18 carries to Freeman’s 12. Freeman was the more efficient rusher, however, managing 2.1 more yards per carry than Henderson.
Yet, Henderson notched the touches that matter. He was the only RB deployed both inside the 5-yard line and in goal-to-go situations (2). Additionally, Henderson drew two looks in the passing game while Freeman wasn’t targeted at all.
The whole situation is a mess. And the Zach Evans factor could turn the whole operation on its proverbial head. But we need to talk about it. Because the running back landscape is equally fraught. Ultimately, Henderson’s familiarity with the Rams’ personnel and system point to him — at least for the time being — materializing as the squad’s RB1. Eschewing the chaos makes good sense. Not all of us, however, have that luxury. Even in a matchup against a solid Dallas run defense (seventh-fewest fantasy points allowed) Henderson’s projected volume (12+ touches) puts him on the RB2/RB3 bubble. Consider him a play at your own peril option.
Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts: Taylor’s reacclimation and subsequent launch has been frustratingly slow-played. That doesn’t mean it’s not happening, however. Each week the now handsomely compensated back has recorded a higher number of snaps and touches. Yes, he remains in a timeshare with Zach Moss, but appears to be pulling away.
Taylor and Moss both saw the exact same number of touches (while Taylor registered 43% and Moss recorded 49% of the team’s snaps) in Week 6. The proportions shifted slightly in Taylor’s favor, as he managed 51% of the snaps (to Moss’ 49%) and logged 21 touches (to Moss’ 19) in Week 7. He was also the team’s starter and ran 5 more routes than his (I’m going to say it) backup this past Sunday versus the Browns.
Moss has, undoubtedly, earned extended playing time. And there’s space for both of these RBs to produce, particularly with Gardner Minshew rushing just five times over two outings (consider his two rushing scores part of the momentary mania). Anthony Richardson‘s absence won’t open up the same holes, but it’s worth noting that Taylor posted the more efficient outing (4.2 YPC) versus a stiff Cleveland run defense that’s allowed the eighth-fewest yards per carry.
That’s why he’s making the big bucks. And why he’s the better bet to produce in another touch matchup against a Saints squad that has given up the third-fewest fantasy points per game. Taylor may be only a high-end RB2 this week, but the climb is on.
Brian Robinson Jr., RB, Washington Commanders: Robinson’s sophomore effort went from giving “told ya so” vibes to serving “say it ain’t so” energy. The Alabama product posted 13+ fantasy points in three of the season’s first four games. But he’s dipped below 8.5 fantasy points in two of his last three outings.
Matchups and game flow have certainly contributed to the fluctuations in Robinson’s production. But don’t discount Chris Rodriguez Jr.’s activation into the situation. A downhill bruiser who was highly productive in college (3,600 rushing yards and 33 TDs over his past four years at Kentucky), the rookie’s opportunities have increased since returning from an illness two weeks ago. While Rodriguez recorded only nine snaps last Sunday, he managed seven carries and emerged as the team’s leading rusher. He was on the field for each quarter of the game, indicating purposeful (as opposed to fluky) usage.
Robinson is likely to remain Washington’s RB1. That doesn’t mean as much, though, when he’s potentially sharing short yardage (and maybe goal-line) carries while ceding pass-catching opportunities to the backfield’s converted wide receiver. It definitely doesn’t bode well versus an Eagles defense that’s allowing the fewest fantasy points (13.4) to opposing RBs. Consider Robinson a dicey RB3 in Week 8.
George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers: Pickens has spoiled us with circus catches. His 31-yard grab in the second-half of last Sunday’s come-from-behind win was thrilling … and a teeny bit expected. More surprising than his aptitude to pull off such a feat was his ability to do it with Diontae Johnson sharing the field. Pickens’ volume affirmed his place as the alpha among Pittsburgh’s corps. The second-year wideout averaged 8.3 targets per game while Johnson was sidelined. Seeing him draw eight looks in the vet’s return, therefore, lends credence to the belief that Pickens’ production won’t be hampered moving forward.
That’s important for a player who has managed 100-plus yards in three of six games this season while also matching up against five of the stingiest secondaries in the league. It’s also helpful in projecting a top-24 showing versus a Jacksonville defense that’s been generous to outside receivers. The Jags have allowed the third-most targets and yards to perimeter pass-catchers while additionally giving up the highest number of yards after the catch. Pickens — who ranks inside the top-20 in receiving yards and YAC — should continue to deliver on WR2 numbers for fantasy purposes in Week 8.
Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars: If Pickens has proved relatively steady, then Calvin Ridley has been on full tilt. The former Falcon has registered just two games over 20 fantasy points … and four outings of 7 or fewer fantasy points.
Part of the issue appears to be Trevor Lawrence‘s reticence to reach for Ridley, particularly when Christian Kirk and Evan Engram are in closer proximity. Ridley is currently registering an aDOT of 12.6 yards. Meanwhile, Kirk’s average depth of target is 7.8 yards and Engram’s is 4.2 yards. Peppering the short to intermediate levels of the field has helped Lawrence cut down on mistakes (he’s recorded just one turnover in three of his last four efforts), but it’s also zapped Ridley of his upside.
I’m hesitant to predicate a bounce-back in Week 8, even noting the generosity of the Steelers’ secondary. Pittsburgh has allowed the third-most fantasy points to WR, but in a curiously uneven manner. For example, Cooper Kupp was held in check (2 of 7 for 29) while Puka Nacua converted 8 of 12 balls for 154 yards in Week 7. Coincidentally, the Steelers shut down Tank Dell (1-16-0), but let Nico Collins feast to the tune of 7 grabs, 168 yards, and 2 TDs back in Week 4. Similarly, Elijah Moore caught just 3 of 9 balls for 36 yards in the same game in which Amari Cooper made good on seven of 10 opportunities for 90 yards in the second week of the season.
The constant in all of this is an understanding of Ridley’s ceiling. That hasn’t disappeared. It also hasn’t been utilized. Acknowledging the space between recency bias and emerging patterns, Ridley is best treated as flex (rather than a locked-in WR2) in Week 8.
Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals: Managers paying attention down the stretch of 2022 may remember Trey McBride’s late-season surge. The second-round pick was called into action after Zach Ertz tore his ACL, averaging 5.6 targets per contest from Weeks 14 through 18. Buzz surrounded the Colorado State product as Arizona braced for a rebuild heading into 2023.
But then the grizzled vet showed up healthy and hungry in Week 1, pushing pause on McBride’s immediate development. That was until two weeks when the 2021 John Mackey Award winner saw his snaps and routes run more than double. What were initially hints at a depth chart change appear concrete now, as Ertz was placed on IR with a quadriceps issue earlier this week.
Coming off a season-high six looks, McBride appears poised to work as Joshua Dobbs shiny new safety valve. While the offense has floundered, McBride has finished top-two in receiving yards in each of his last two efforts. The numbers aren’t astounding but the commitment to the player (who was the first TE selected in 2022) is legit. He faces two stingy squads (BAL, CLE) in back-to-back weeks but the schedule opens up once we hit double digits. He’s a look ahead prospect for managers intent on pushing onwards (and upwards).
Follow Liz on social @LizLoza_FF
Source: www.espn.com