Slump proof players: High floor forward and defensemen picks

Throw out the special teams bonuses. Forget about assists. And, while you’re at it, let’s toss away the goals, too.

This is a look at how you can plug roster holes and, in some cases, build parts of your team around the “other” stats.

In ESPN.com leagues, that’s hits, blocked shots and shots on goal. The oft-forgotten, minimally counted peripheral statistics that, if used correctly, can go a long way to earning you fantasy points and/or movement in the standings.

You will need goals, assists and special teams, of course, as they drive the most points and value, but blocks, hits and shots have their place.

Blocks count for 0.5 points in standard ESPN scoring, while hits and shots are worth 0.1 points. So it would take five shots, five hits and two blocked shots to equal a single goal.

You can also look at that with the glass half full and say all it takes is two blocked shots, five hits and five shots to get the same points as a goal!

Admittedly, many of the players who drive value in just those statistics don’t always supplement with goals and assists, so it’s a game of give and take: How much offense generation can you forgo on your roster to add players that do the grindy work? The answer is different for every fantasy team and fantasy league.

But let’s go over some of the numbers behind it all.

How much value is here?

The standard ESPN.com fantasy hockey roster has 22 players. If you take away 2.5 goalies per team, that’s between 195 and 234 skaters that get rostered. Looking at the past two seasons combined, the 235th ranked player in fantasy points per game (FPPG) has managed 1.50 FPPG.

The reason to point this out is that three NHLers have actually managed to average better than 1.50 FPPG over the past two seasons with no goals, no assists and no special teams. Three is not a lot, but the fact that Alec Martinez, Jacob Trouba and Brayden McNabb can get to fantasy relevant territory with only hits, blocked shots and shots is a showcase of just how powerful the peripheral stats can be.

There are 113 skaters that have averaged 1.00 FPPG during the past two seasons without counting any of their points. That’s 113 skaters in range of being relevant to fantasy — or even elite — if some points come their way.

Forty-two fantasy players have done exactly that during the past two seasons. All of them defense, there are 42 players with more than 1.70 FPPG during the past two seasons who earned more than 50 percent of their fantasy points through hits, blocked shots and shots.

That range stretches all the way up to Martinez and McNabb at the top, as the Vegas Golden Knights defenders have generated 85.9% and 85.6% of their fantasy points without the use of scoring. Using this sample of players (past two seasons average of 1.7 FPPG and at least 42 games played), the top 49 for percentage of points from blocked shots, hits and shots are all defenders. Lawson Crouse is the top forward (1.7 FPPG) at 50th with 46.3% of his fantasy value not coming from goals or assists.

How do I build them into my roster?

In fact, the ranking of fantasy-relevant players by the percent of their points from the periphery statistics can almost be cut in two for sections with defense and forwards. So a lot of this value in the absence of points is generated from the blue line. Hits and blocked shots, in particular, give defenders a way to even up the playing field with high-scoring forwards. Due to that, the value becomes a natural part of your roster construction. You can, however, find some sneaky, end-of-your-draft value by targeting these categories. It’s easily overlooked that McNabb has the same per-game fantasy production as Mark Stone over the past two seasons.

You can also look at players that already have a good base in these categories and are facing a change in circumstances. These stats will fluctuate with ice time, but are not as prone to wild swings like goals and assists from season to season.

Finally, like Crouse, there are some forwards that crest 40% of their fantasy points coming from hits, blocked shots and shots. They can also be strong supplemental roster pieces. Forwards also bring an opportunity to happenstance their way into a streaky scoring line.

Eventually there comes a place in your draft where the picks you are making have minimal value, so making sure they have a solid base in the peripherals can go a long way.

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Who should I target?

Logan Couture, C, San Jose Sharks (2.01 fantasy points per game, 39.4% of value from blocks, hits and shots, 209.4 average draft position): Though he may miss a few games to start the season, Couture is going to have a lot on his shoulders this season. The Sharks have stripped down even more than they already had and Couture will be putting in the minutes if he’s healthy. He’s slipped to the back end of drafts this season, but offers some bankable value on what won’t be a great Sharks team.

Jack Eichel, C, Vegas Golden Knights (2.33 FPPG, 38.9%, 31.1 ADP): Hardly a late-round steal, but noting that Eichel generates close to 40% of his value through the non-scoring stats suggests there is untapped upside here. If he can stay healthy and push to 82 games, there’s a chance Eichel will be a steal at 30th overall in drafts.

Tom Wilson, W, Washington Capitals (1.98 FPPG, 45.3%, 225.1 ADP): After missing the bulk of last season, Wilson has some work to do in earning fantasy trust back. But the Capitals didn’t make too many major adjustments in the offseason. New coach Spencer Carbery will be well aware of the value of a grit winger with the team’s stars from his time in Toronto, so Wilson is likely to stay in the top six.

Lawson Crouse, W, Arizona Coyotes (1.72 FPPG, 46.3%, 188.8 ADP): It’s far from guaranteed and Crouse could stay on the third line, but the Coyotes have a lot of pieces with potential to form scoring lines. Just how those lines will shape up with potential breakouts from Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther will remain up in the air until we get some regular season box scores. Crouse is an example of what I mentioned above: A forward with a great stat base from his peripherals that could luck himself into a great line combination.

Alec Martinez, D, Vegas Golden Knights (1.97 FPPG, 85.9%, 227.3 ADP): Martinez has come up again and again here as the prime example of the importance of blocked shots for good reasons. He rode the peripheral stats to a fourth-overall finish for fantasy in the 2020-21 season. That campaign was a prime example of a strong peripheral base getting boosted by goals and assists to elite levels. He hasn’t come close to that point production again, but remains a threat to remain relevant even at age 36 as his 244 blocks last season are the sixth-most in a single season ever.

Sean Durzi, D, Arizona Coyotes (1.92 FPPG, 64.5%, 197.4 ADP): One of the more exciting potential breakouts based on a change of jerseys, Durzi just has to pass Juuso Valimaki for rights to quarterback the top power-play unit. As effective as Valimaki was last season, Durzi has some of his own experience filling in for Drew Doughty with the Kings. If Durzi manages to be on an effective special teams unit, he could be a very pleasant surprise.

Top without points

Here is a full list of NHLers with more than 1.30 FPPG during the past two seasons without counting any of their goals or assists.

• Alec Martinez, D, Vegas Golden Knights: 1.69 FPPG (without goals or assists)

• Jacob Trouba, D, New York Rangers: 1.65 FPPG

• Brayden McNabb, D, Vegas Golden Knights: 1.60 FPPG

• Moritz Seider, D, Detroit Red Wings: 1.49 FPPG

• David Savard, D, Montreal Canadiens: 1.48 FPPG

• Joel Edmundson, D, Montreal Canadiens: 1.46 FPPG

• Darnell Nurse, D, Edmonton Oilers: 1.46 FPPG

• Connor Murphy, D, Chicago Blackhawks: 1.46 FPPG

• Andrew Peeke, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: 1.46 FPPG

• Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vegas Golden Knights: 1.46 FPPG

• Roman Josi, D, Nashville Predators: 1.40 FPPG

• Radko Gudas, D, Anaheim Ducks: 1.40 FPPG

• Jake McCabe, D, Toronto Maple Leads: 1.39 FPPG

• Mario Ferraro, D, San Jose Sharks: 1.38 FPPG

• Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Philadelphia Flyers: 1.36 FPPG

• Adam Larsson, D, Seattle Kraken: 1.36 FPPG

• Ben Chiarot, D, Detroit Red Wings: 1.35 FPPG

• Travis Hamonic, D, Ottawa Senators: 1.34 FPPG

• Seth Jones, D, Chicago Blackhawks: 1.32 FPPG

• Jeff Petry, D, Detroit Red Wings: 1.32 FPPG

• Ivan Provorov, D, Columbus Blue Jackets: 1.32 FPPG

• Kris Letang, D, Pittsburgh Penguins: 1.31 FPPG

Ferraro and Ristolainen jump off the page from the list as playing for teams that don’t have the power-play quarterback opposition locked down. They might not be the ones who get the gig, but they are at least in the running.

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Source: www.espn.com