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Eric Karabell, ESPN Senior Writer
Many of us evaluating the running back and wide receiver rankings for fantasy football this season — and who are we kidding, for every season — often see groups of players who appear relatively indistinguishable statistically. This might seem normal, but it is often misunderstood by fantasy newcomers.
Rankings tell us only so much. They lack bigger-picture context. A tiered ranking system adds key context that we all need when forced to make significant decisions in a matter of seconds on draft day.
For example, is this No. 5 RB from the rankings markedly better than the next fellow on the list? If not, perhaps go with another position. Where is the drop-off in expected production in the WR2 range? If all options look/feel the same, then why am I picking any of them?! These are important questions that regular rankings do not address because, in most cases, the answers are abstract. We use our gut to make decisions. Ranking in tiers, in advance, at least solves part of the problem.
After all, value is the key for any fantasy football draft, and we are dealing with perceived supply and demand here. All of this is projectable and hardly exact, but we can reasonably decide which players we like a lot more than others, because talent level and opportunity is different. Enter an ESPN draft and everyone sees the rankings, but they are not your rankings, and they do not tell us enough. Crave more clarity. Tier it up, baby, add that context, make things clearer.
Here are one analyst’s tiered PPR rankings (ESPN standard) for running backs (click here for wide receivers!), which are sure to change as August news develops. First advice to any fantasy football manager: Do not rely on anyone’s rankings but your own. Make your own rankings for your league format and divide players into tiers afterward. These are your fantasy teams. Follow your own advice and make your own choices.
Check out more tiered rankings: WR | RB | Coming Wednesday: QB | TE
Tier 1: Early first round
1. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
2. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers
Notes: Wide receivers Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase tend to get the overall nod over these guys, but these are the lone running backs worthy of the top pick. Questions remain, of course. Ekeler is touchdown dependent, and he — like seemingly everyone else at the position — wants a new contract. McCaffrey used to be regarded as quite brittle, missing 23 of 33 games over a two-season span, but now everyone seems to believe he is durable. Still, while there is a fundamental difference in value between top running backs and wide receivers, these two stand alone.
Tier 2: Mid-late first round
3. Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
4. Saquon Barkley, New York Giants
Notes: This tier is about upside and safety, to some degree. Henry is more valuable in non-PPR formats, but his consistency and durability are hard to beat, having led the league in rushing attempts three of four years, and he caught a career-high 33 passes this past season. Barkley remains great, but as with Henry, we have likely seen his best. Ah, running backs.
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Tier 3: Rounds 1/2
5. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
6. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta Falcons
Notes: People might not perceive risk here, but it is there. Taylor was the top pick in 2022 drafts, but he became overwhelmed with injury and colleague incompetence. Even today, things don’t seem quite right, but he remains an RB1. Robinson is easily the first rookie off the board, seemingly sans flaws or question marks, but still, he is a rookie. Nothing is guaranteed. Wide receivers remain safer early.
Tier 4: Round 2
7. Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns
8. Tony Pollard, Dallas Cowboys
Notes: Chubb has excelled each season, but he offers little relevance in the passing game, and that matters in PPR formats. Pollard is a health risk — well, aren’t they all, really? — but perhaps he is due for a larger role.
Tier 5: Rounds 3/4
9. Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
10. Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
11. Joe Mixon, Cincinnati Bengals
12. Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
13. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots
14. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers
Notes: Some might believe it is quite silly for Jacobs to fall this far, but remember, we project ahead and should not draft on past results. Jacobs will not see the same volume as last season. Mixon, Jones, Stevenson and Harris offer seemingly safe volume and touchdown opportunity, although the Pats did add Ezekiel Elliott. After this tier, little is assured, which is why you might wish to grab several members from this section.
Tier 6: Rounds 4/5
15. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
16. Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
Notes: Gibbs was the second running back chosen in the first round, an elite pass-catcher from Alabama likely to share the stage with proven veteran David Montgomery. Gibbs is better, but this is likely a timeshare. Walker, in his second season, figures to share the volume with rookie Zach Charbonnet. Perhaps these two end up RB1 options, or perhaps few will be pleased.
Tier 7: Rounds 6/7
17. James Conner, Arizona Cardinals
18. Alexander Mattison, Minnesota Vikings
19. Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
20. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
21. Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Notes: Myriad names in this tier, and unfortunately, myriad question marks. Conner is not young, in running back years, and his team is not expected to be good. Mattison is unproven as a volume option. Pierce and White have quarterback question marks, perhaps Akers as well.
Tier 8: Rounds 8/9
22. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs
23. Breece Hall, New York Jets
24. D’Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles
25. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
26. Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers
27. Dalvin Cook, New York Jets
28. J.K. Dobbins, Baltimore Ravens
29. Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Notes: Expect missed games in this tier. Swift has yet to play in more than 14 games in a season. The player he replaced in Philadelphia, Sanders, also has a reputation for physical maladies holding him back. Dobbins missed the 2021 season and half of last season because of a knee injury. Williams is recovering from a knee injury. Pacheco hurt his shoulder. Hall has the knee and a timeshare with Cook. Kamara is out the first three weeks serving a suspension.
Tier 9: Rounds 10/11
30. David Montgomery, Lions
31. Jamaal Williams, Saints
32. AJ Dillon, Packers
Notes: Older, more experienced running backs with little upside reside here. Montgomery seems rather unlikely to follow in Williams’ footsteps and score 17 touchdowns. Williams comes off a career year. Dillon probably deserves more volume.
Tier 10: Rounds 11/12
33. James Cook, Buffalo Bills
34. Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears
35. Samaje Perine, Broncos
36. Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
37. Jerick McKinnon, Chiefs
Notes: The 10th round seems a likely spot for fantasy managers to keep looking at the running back depth on their teams and wonder, “Is that it?” Cook might become a star, but the Bills have options and their quarterback rushes for touchdowns. Herbert, Perine and Robinson might start, but none looks like a gamebreaker.
Tier 11: Rounds 12/13
38. Rashaad Penny, Eagles
39. Jeff Wilson Jr., Miami Dolphins
40. Antonio Gibson, Commanders
41. Raheem Mostert, Dolphins
42. Elijah Mitchell, 49ers
43. Ezekiel Elliott, Patriots
44. Zach Charbonnet, Seahawks
Notes: This tier is a popular one for fantasy managers to target the backup running back to one they already roster. Penny, for example, should work in some tandem with D’Andre Swift in an effort to keep each healthy. If something ails Christian McCaffrey, Mitchell investors have his backup. The Miami and Washington running backs might not be popular flex choices. Elliott figures to steal touchdowns in his new home.
Tier 12: Round 13-on
45. Roschon Johnson, Bears
46. Chuba Hubbard, Panthers
47. Devin Singletary, Texans
48. D’Onta Foreman, Bears
49. Damien Harris, Bills
50. Kendre Miller, Saints
51. Tyler Allgeier, Falcons
52. Jaylen Warren, Steelers
53. Jerome Ford, Browns
54. Gus Edwards, Ravens
55. Joshua Kelley, Chargers
56. De’Von Achane, Dolphins
57. Tank Bigsby, Jaguars
Notes: Fantasy managers should build a base of four or five running backs before they get to this tier, but there are intriguing names to watch at the end of a draft. Harris scored 15 touchdowns two seasons ago. McKinnon caught nine touchdowns last season. Miller, Johnson, Achane and Bigsby are rookies who just need an opportunity.
Source: www.espn.com