SANTA CLARA — The 49ers will be on the sidelines for the first two rounds of this week’s NFL Draft. And then … here comes their next wave of All-Pros.
The next George Kittle (2017 fifth-rounder). The next Fred Warner (2018 third-rounder). The next Talanoa Hufanga (2021 fifth-rounder). The next Brock Purdy, who didn’t make All-Pro but somehow morphed from last draft’s “Mr. Irrelevant” to an NFL Rookie of the Year finalist.
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“You’re talking about guys that are incredibly football-smart, and they’re incredibly passionate,” NFL Network draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah said of the 49ers’ recent draft finds. “They were leaders at the places that they played. … They’ve figured out the makeup part of this whole thing. They have found it.”
The 49ers should find themselves in title contention again, even though they’ll skip the first-round hoopla for a second straight year. They are not slated to pick until the backwash of Round 3, when the Friday night lights will illuminate the 49ers’ John McVay Draft Room.
Earlier draft capital was spent acquiring quarterback Trey Lance in 2021 (No. 3 pick overall) and running back Christian McCaffrey in 2022 (trade from Carolina).
Purdy’s arrival as the 262nd and final pick last draft underscored that what players do with their opportunity is more important than when they are drafted — all due respect to 2019 No. 2 pick Nick Bosa, the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year.
“The draft is how you enter this league, but that’s all that is,” 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan said last month. “After that, it’s building your team and playing your best players.”
Here are nine things to know about the Niners for the draft, which is being held in Kansas City on Thursday (5 p.m.), Friday (4 p.m.) and Saturday (9 a.m.):
1. THIRD ROUND’S A CHARM
The 49ers’ first picks don’t come until the third round, which is where they landed four Pro Football Hall of Fame players: Bob St. Clair (1954; No. 32 overall), Dave Wilcox (1964; No. 29), Joe Montana (1979; No. 82) and Terrell Owens (1996; No. 89).
Other notable third-round selections: Frank Gore (2005; No. 65) and Warner (2018; No. 70), not to mention Gio Carmazzi (2000; No. 65, or 134 spots ahead of Tom Brady) and Jalen Hurd (2019, No. 67; no games ever played).
These third-round picks (Nos. 99, 101, 102) came courtesy of the NFL’s minority hiring incentives, compensation for the 49ers losing Robert Saleh (Jets coach), Martin Mayhew (Commanders general manager), Mike McMcDaniel (Dolphins coach), and, Ran Carthon (Titans GM). More third-rounders will come in 2024 for Carthon in 2025 for DeMeco Ryans (Texans coach).
2. RUNNING BACK INVESTMENT
The 49ers already spent second-, third- and fourth-round picks in this draft on their starting running back, McCaffrey. Those three picks, along with a 2024 fifth-rounder, freed him from Carolina in last October’s trade.
The past two drafts saw the 49ers drop third-round picks on the running back position: Trey Sermon in 2021 (he’s now on the Eagles) and Ty Davis-Price in ’22. The only other running back drafted by this regime was Joe Williams, a 2017 fourth-round pick who spent his rookie year on injured reserve and was cut before the 2018 season without resurfacing in the NFL.
3. LANCE IN LIMBO?
Trade Trey? No deal is out of the question with this regime (exception: Nick Bosa). But Trey Lance is the best choice to run the 49ers’ offseason offense while Purdy recovers from elbow surgery and Sam Darnold learns the playbook. Lance’s exit would come at a seismic hit of $11 million on the salary cap (another negative). It also would seal the 2021 trade up the draft board (three first-rounders, a third-round pick) as the franchise’s worst return on investment; the 1977 deal for over-the-hill O.J. Simpson cost them five picks but only one first-rounder.
Lance’s NFL capabilities remain a mystery two years since arriving as the No. 3 overall pick, a spot where the 49ers selected Hall of Fame quarterback Y.A. Tittle in 1948 and Stanford defensive tackle Solomon Thomas in 2017.
4. WIDE RECEIVER TREND
The 49ers drafted at least one receiver each year from 2003 to 2020, and after snapping that streak in 2021, they spent last year’s third-round pick on Danny Gray, whose only reception as a rookie came in Week 16.
The same cast of receivers is back from last season, so there isn’t an urgent need to add another, other than to increase competition and depth.
Looking ahead to 2024, the 49ers could have to pick between keeping just one of their starting wide receivers, when Deebo Samuel’s salary balloons to $21 million and Brandon Aiyuk could cost $14 million on a fifth-year option. Looking back a year ago, Samuel reportedly asked for a trade, and he eventually settled for a three-year, $71.5 million extension at training camp.
5. D-LINE CONGA LINE
In six of the past eight drafts, the 49ers have spent their top pick on a defensive lineman: Arik Armstead in 2015 (No. 17 overall), DeForest Buckner in ’16 (No. 7), Solomon Thomas in ’17 (No. 3), Nick Bosa in ’19 (No. 2), Javon Kinlaw in ’20 (No. 14), and, Drake Jackson last year (No. 61). They definitely could add again to that unit, even after splurging on defensive tackle Javon Hargrave in free agency.
6. SIXTH-ROUND MEDICALS
The 49ers historically risk sixth-round picks on prospects with medical red flags: defensive tackle Jullian Taylor (knee) and safety Marcell Harris (Achilles) in 2018, cornerback Tim Harris (shoulder; wrist) in ‘19, and, cornerback Tariq Castro-Fields (shoulder) and defensive tackle Kalia Davis (knee) in ’22. This year’s sixth-round pick is slated for No. 216 overall.
7. DRAFT RETENTION
Of the 49 Niners drafted by this regime since 2017, just 26 are still on the roster. Their most disappointing picks, pending Lance’s future, were the 2017 first-round selections of Solomon Thomas and Reuben Foster, who are now playing with the New York Jets and the USFL’s Pittsburgh Maulers, respectively.
8. DEAL OR NO DEAL
Last year marked the 49ers’ first of six drafts under general manager John Lynch in which he did not make a trade. He didn’t budge and waited until No. 61 overall to make defensive end Drake Jackson their first of nine picks.
The 49ers may not have enough ammunition to move back into this draft’s first two rounds, and 1977 was their only previous draft in which they rode the bench in Rounds 1 and 2. If you’re bored watching Thursday night’s opening round without the 49ers present, just remember that the rival Los Angeles Rams have gone five straight years without drafting in the first round.
9. DRAFT-PICK MENU
Here is the 49ers’ order in the draft, with Round 1 on Thursday, Rounds 2 and 3 on Friday, and Rounds 4-7 on Saturday:
First round: None
Second round: None
Third round: Nos. 99, 101, 102
Fourth round: None
Fifth round: Nos. 155, 164, 173
Sixth round: No. 216
Seventh round: Nos. 222, 247, 253, 255
Source: www.mercurynews.com