For the first time since the Atlanta Falcons hired coach Arthur Smith and general manager Terry Fontenot, the franchise is in a space where it doesn’t have to live in the bargain-based world of NFL free agency.
With the second-most cap space in the league — more than $56 million — the Falcons can spend money to try and bring in impact players to improve their team. But Smith and Fontenot have always been clear about one thing: They aren’t opposed to keeping their own guys.
So what does that mean for the 25 potential free agents Atlanta has? We’ll explain.
We’ve broken this down into four categories in terms of our sense on whether this player would be back: High, 50/50, Low and Unlikely. While these categories aren’t locked in — things can change for a multitude of reasons including how things play out across the league, the wants and wishes of players and the Falcons and finances — hopefully this becomes a barometer of expectations for what might happen.
The players have been listed in alphabetical order.
Age: 27
2022 stats: 40 tackles, one sack, one pass defended
The skinny: Anderson was a player who became a starter once injuries impacted Atlanta’s defensive line. He did some good things, and it’s always possible he could return in a reserve capacity. But as a restricted free agent there’s almost no way the Falcons would spend that sort of money. Atlanta wants to shake up its defensive line, and Anderson would likely be part of that. If he returns, it would be on a much lower deal.
Re-signing chances: Low
Damiere Byrd, WR
Age: 30
2022 stats: 13 catches, 268 yards, 2 TDs
The skinny: Byrd is a fine player and will find a home. Just feels like it would be somewhere other than Atlanta. He’d be ticketed for a clear reserve role if he returned, and he played no special teams last season.
Re-signing chances: Low
Lorenzo Carter, OLB
Age: 27
2022 stats: 58 tackles, 12 quarterback hits, four sacks, one fumble recovery, one interception, one INT touchdown, one blocked punt touchdown
The skinny: Carter is a tough one. If he’s willing to take a reasonable contract and a rotational role, then he would be good to bring back. He was brought in to be Atlanta’s top edge rusher last season and while he was, the sack and pressure numbers didn’t blossom. He might be able to get more money (and a larger role) elsewhere.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Rashaan Evans, LB
Age: 27
2022 stats: 159 tackles, four passes defended, two sacks, two fumble recoveries, one forced fumble
The skinny: This is tricky. If Dean Pees were still the defensive coordinator, Evans’ return would be a good bet. He played well in the system, Pees liked working with him, and Evans enjoyed his time in Atlanta. The last part is still true, but new defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen might have different ideas for his linebackers. Evans had a good season and his position coach, Frank Bush, is back. If Nielsen sees the value in what Evans brings, there could be a reunion.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Mike Ford, CB/S/ST
Age: 27
2022 stats: 8 defensive tackles, 7 special teams tackles.
The skinny: Ford has developed into one of the league’s top special teams players and is a key contributor there. Pay no attention to the defensive numbers (although he could play corner or safety in an emergency), and look at the overall value to a phase of the game Atlanta places an emphasis on.
Re-signing chances: High.
Colby Gossett, OG
Age: 27
2022 stats: 17 games played, four starts
The skinny: Gossett is a good reserve offensive lineman who can spot start. The Falcons might have a couple of those, and how the team feels about Jalen Mayfield and others could dictate this for Gossett. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him back in 2023. Would be surprised if it was a signing that happened before things shake out a little bit.
Re-signing chance: 50-50
Erik Harris, S
Age: 32
2022 stats: 7 defensive tackles, 6 special teams tackles
The skinny: It’s similar to Ford, although Harris is on the older side. But with the culture Smith is building, Harris has been a key component within that locker room. After the Damar Hamlin injury, Harris was the player with the most impactful voice. With a young team, that matters. Tough decision with rational arguments on either side.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
KhaDarel Hodge, WR
Age: 28
2022 stats: 13 catches, 202 yards, one TD
The skinny: Hodge had the best year of his career last season and is a willing blocker on the outside. Plus, he was a key special teams player. Atlanta needs more pass catchers, but Hodge can be reliable and the Falcons trust him. It’s just a matter of how much they remake that room.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Germain Ifedi, RT
Age: 28
2022 stats: 17 games played, 0 starts
The skinny: Ifedi served as a reserve tackle on a vet minimum salary last season. If he’s willing to do it again, perhaps Atlanta would entertain it.
Re-signing chances: Low
Nick Kwiatkoski, LB
Age: 29
2022 stats: 7 tackles
The skinny: Kwiatkoski actually showed up to one of the East-West Shrine Bowl practices, a sign he’s on good terms with the team despite not playing much in 2022. A special-teams only guy last season, it’s possible they bring him back, but there are other priorities.
Re-signing chances: Low
Kaleb McGary, RT
Age: 28
2022 stats: 17 games, 17 starts
The skinny: This is a tough one. Atlanta wants to take care of its own, and McGary played well last season. In theory, the team should want him back, but Spotrac has his projected average salary at $17.7 million per year. It would be a steep price, and if he hits the market, that number could get inflated. He’s a player Atlanta should try to re-sign, but it’ll be one to watch if it doesn’t get done before the start of the new league year.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Isaiah Oliver, CB
Age: 26
2022 stats: 37 tackles, seven passes defended, one interception, one sack
The skinny: Like Evans, if Pees were around this would feel likely. The Falcons were trying him at corner and safety by season’s end, so they believe in his versatility. As long as the price is right, it seems sensible to for this to continue, although the unknown of what Nielsen wants to do in the secondary creates some question.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Age: 28
2022 stats: 45.9 yards per punt, 41.2 net yards per punt, 37.1% inside the 20
The skinny: Pinion had one of his best years last season. He shouldn’t come at a massive cost. He grew up in North Carolina and went to Clemson, so he has general ties to the area. Would not be surprising at all if he’s back for 2023.
Re-signing chances: High.
MyCole Pruitt, TE
Age: 30
2022 stats: 16 catches, 150 yards, four touchdowns
The skinny: When Kyle Pitts went down, it was Pruitt who picked up a more prominent role with the most productive year of his career. As a third tight end, he can both block and showed rapport with Desmond Ridder, as his three top games came with him at quarterback. Assuming the cost is minimal, could see him back to compete for a roster spot.
Re-signing chances: High
Keith Smith, FB
Age: 30
2022 stats: 1 carry, 2 yards, 1 catch, 8 yards; 6 special teams tackles
The skinny: This might come down to whether Atlanta wants a fullback in its offense. If it does, no reason to move on from Smith as long as the cost is not high. Could see Atlanta going younger here or in a different direction with the value of the position, but Smith has done good things.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Vincent Taylor, DL
Age: 29
2022 stats: None
The skinny: Taylor was on injured reserve following an injury in camp. He has played in one game over two seasons. But Atlanta did keep him around on IR, so there may be some interest.
Re-signing chances: Low
Elijah Wilkinson, OG
Age: 28
2022 stats: 9 games, 9 starts
The skinny: Wilkinson had a good season and established himself as a starting NFL guard. But with the Falcons needing to pay Pro Bowler Chris Lindstrom and either McGary or a McGary replacement, there might not be enough to offer Wilkinson what he should get from other teams. Now if those offers don’t materialize, it’d be smart to bring him back and feel good about it. But he should be able to command a multi-year, good-sized contract elsewhere.
Re-signing chances: Low
Age: 25
2022 stats: 40 catches, 533 yards, 3 TDs
The skinny: Zaccheaus had his best season to date, and he’s another guy Atlanta should want to bring back. But like Wilkinson, it’s possible if Zaccheaus wants to test the market, he’ll find good money elsewhere. He has been forced into a No. 2 receiver role both years under Smith. It would be interesting to see him more in a natural No. 3 spot and what his production could be.
Re-signing chances: 50-50
Unlikely to re-sign after playing very little or not at all for Atlanta this season:
Beau Brinkley, LS; Matt Dickerson, DE; Chuma Edoga, OL; Anthony Firkser, TE; Rashad Fenton, CB; Jaleel Johnson, DT; Vincent Taylor, DL.
Source: www.espn.com