For decades, the NHL was a place where teams would get a multigoal lead and would rarely give them up. Goalies were too good. Defenses outpaced offenses. Flip the channel. Game over.
That was before the scoring explosion in hockey over the past few seasons. Now, no lead is safe — and that’s great news for in-game wagering on the NHL. Goal scoring is slightly up over last season.
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Through Monday night, teams were averaging 3.15 goals per game. Last season, that average was 3.14. Considering the havoc that the COVID-19 pandemic caused to rosters last season — resulting in a record number of goaltenders appearing in 2021-22 — the fact that there wasn’t a drop in this average is an encouraging sign that offense isn’t on the wane. The total number of goals per game is up as well: 6.31 this season vs. 6.29 last season.
Every hockey wagerer has seen game totals creep up to 6.5 goals at most sportsbooks, with exceptions for goaltending matchups and battles between the few defensively stingy teams in the league. (The San Jose Sharks are your overlords: The total has gone over in 34 of 52 games this season.)
NHL’s comeback kings
All of that offense has led to an incredible amount of comeback wins in the NHL. Look no further than Monday night. The Ottawa Senators were +140 money-line underdogs against the Calgary Flames. At 6:40 of the third period, Calgary took a 3-1 lead on Ottawa. In 21 games, the Flames had lost four times after leading entering the third period, putting them in the bottom third of the league in that category. Ottawa rallied to tie and won in overtime. The in-game action on the Senators, down two goals, would have produced a hefty return.
Again, this isn’t an anomaly. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, the winning team in over 43% of NHL games this season (364-of-851) was trailing at some point in that game. That percentage is on track to be the third-highest rate of any season since 1943-44. Each NHL team has at least six comeback wins, and each team has at least three losses after leading.
But as the Ottawa Senators showed Monday, it’s the multigoal comebacks that are eye-opening: There have been 89 games in which the winning team was trailing by two goals at one point in the game. If that pace continues, it would be the third-highest average of all time and the second highest since 1986-87 — only the wacky post-lockout 2005-06 season, which introduced a slew of new rules, was higher. The kings of the comeback this season, through Monday:
The kings of the third-period comeback this season:
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New Jersey Devils: Trailed after two periods 17 times, won 5.
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Tampa Bay Lightning: Trailed after two periods 14 times, won 4.
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New York Rangers: Trailed after two periods 14 times, won 4.
So when you’re scanning the NHL scoreboard and see an early lead — or even a multigoal lead — be aware that in today’s league, it won’t be safe. Well, unless the Arizona Coyotes are playing. They have trailed first 31 times and won five of those games, the worst percentage in the league.
Stanley Cup odds
The NHL trade deadline is March 3. There are some potentially season-altering names available: Chicago Blackhawks forwards Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews; San Jose Sharks forward Timo Meier and defenseman Erik Karlsson; Arizona Coyotes defenseman Jakob Chychrun; and St. Louis Blues center Ryan O’Reilly.
How quickly can a big deadline trade impact Stanley Cup futures? Look no further than the New York Rangers. Before they traded for Blues star Vladimir Tarasenko, the Rangers were 20-1 to win the Stanley Cup. Now they’re at 10-1 at Caesars and 14-1 at BetMGM. One big trade can shift the market.
To that end, keep an eye on the Dallas Stars, Edmonton Oilers, Los Angeles Kings and New Jersey Devils as teams hunting for a key deadline move. Here’s a look at the top 10 Stanley Cup contender odds as of Tuesday based on an aggregation of Caesars, BetMGM and DraftKings odds:
Two long shots worth keeping an eye on: the Kings (35-1) and the New York Islanders (52-1). The Kings have an 87% chance of making the playoffs, per Money Puck. They’re a solid defensive team — seventh in expected goals against per 60 minutes — and could still improve at the deadline. Plus the Western Conference is more up for grabs than the East. The Islanders have some work to do, with just an 18.4% chance of making the playoffs. But they made a trade for Canucks star Bo Horvat and have one of the league’s best goalies in Ilya Sorokin. A few insiders I’ve spoken to believe the Islanders are a team built for the postseason. If they get in it, there’s a possibility they could win it.
Promising NHL futures bets
Edmonton Oilers to win Pacific (+200): Getting plus money on a division winner at this point in the season is pretty fantastic. Consider how locked in the Bruins (-10000), Hurricanes (-300) and Stars (-200) are right now. Money Puck gives the Oilers the best odds of winning the Pacific (33.6%). They don’t have a cake walk of a schedule — two games against the Bruins, Avalanche and Leafs each — but I like them to finish atop the division if their goaltending is adequate and both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are healthy.
Connor Hellebuyck for Vezina (+450): There are three reasons to back this wager for the Winnipeg Jets netminder to be named the league’s top goalie. Boston’s Linus Ullmark (-175) is the favorite, while the Islanders’ Sorokin (+500) is the third choice. They’re both in the Eastern Conference and could split some votes, while Hellebuyck is in the West. But the big question is how Hellebuyck makes a stronger case than Ullmark, who has the better numbers. How about this: The voters see Ullmark as the product of a defensive machine in Boston and see Hellebuyck as the de facto Winnipeg MVP behind a significantly worse defense. Plus, Hellebuyck could end up leading the NHL in shots faced and saves made. Work rate matters. (Note: I am a Professional Hockey Writers Association awards voter, but the PHWA does not vote for the Vezina — the NHL general managers do.)
Dallas Stars to win Western Conference (+650): The Stars have arguably the best line in hockey led by star Jason Robertson, a top-five goalie in Jake Oettinger and a load of veteran depth. And remember this fun fact about head coach Pete DeBoer: The New Jersey Devils and San Jose Sharks both went to the Stanley Cup Final in his first season behind their benches. DeBoer was hired by Dallas last summer. Could this be a hat trick?
Greg Wyshynski is a senior NHL writer, and you can catch his betting insight on “Daily Wager,” which airs weeknights at 6 p.m. on ESPN2.
Source: www.espn.com