As light rain started to fall on a windy and overcast Saturday afternoon from storms bearing down on the coastal farm town of Watsonville, Manuel Rodrigues made sure the shelves of his Ace Hardware store were fully stocked with sandbags, lanterns, tarps and other rain gear.
Parts of the Santa Cruz County city are under a flood advisory, and Rodrigues remembered well the damage caused by past floods in the area and wanted to make sure his community is ready.
“We’re sort of a meeting a place for people when they talk about what’s going on in other parts of the neighborhood,” Rodrigues said. “Obviously there’s a lot of worried people.”
As yet another winter storm rolled into the rain-soaked greater Bay Area this weekend, the region again braced for dangerous winds and mudslides, followed by potentially widespread flooding early next week when a more powerful atmospheric river weather pattern was expected to arrive.
Rivers and creeks will be at the greatest risk of cresting their banks Monday and into Tuesday, according to the National Weather Service. Severe flooding in other low-lying areas also is a concern then as the heaviest rains are set to fall.
“If you know of areas that saw flooding” from recent storms, said weather service meteorologist Brayden Murdock, “odds are with Monday’s system, you’re going to be seeing that again.”
Saturday’s rains began pouring over the North Bay in the morning before making their way south in the afternoon through the Bay Area and into Santa Cruz and Monterey, amid ominous signs of what lies ahead.
ABC meteorologist Drew Tuma reported sightings based on observer photos of asperitas clouds, a distinctive, unusual and only recently classified cloud formation with an appearance of rippling waves often associated with unstable weather.
If you’re wondering what the wavy clouds are moving through the Bay Area they are Asperitas Clouds. Not a very common cloud to see, indicates an unstable atmosphere, can be quite turbulent to fly through. https://t.co/QjtxbwJjv9
— Drew Tuma (@DrewTumaABC7) January 7, 2023
And climate scientist Daniel Swain reported unusual organized thunderstorm clusters on satellite imagery over the Pacific Ocean heading toward California and said there “could be quite a lot of thunderstorm activity.”
An unusual feature conspicuous on satellite imagery this morning over Pacific west of CA: multiple, seemingly organized thunderstorm clusters over the ocean headed eastward toward California (& not just along front). Will be interesting to see how this evolves later today. #CAwx pic.twitter.com/SrWTAolufh
— Daniel Swain (@Weather_West) January 7, 2023
Even before the next storm hits, booming wind gusts of up to 60 mph threaten to topple trees and take out power lines across the region this weekend. And after a week of relentless rainfall, mudslides and debris flows are a top concern, especially in areas burned by wildfires in recent years.
A series of recent storms across California already have knocked out power to thousands, flooded streets, battered the coastline and caused at least six deaths. The storms won’t be enough to officially end the state’s ongoing drought but they have helped.
Across the greater Bay Area on Saturday, residents and officials prepared for the punishing weather ahead.
In the North Bay, Monte Rio Fire Chief Steve Baxman was helping mobile home residents near the Russian River pack up their trailers as the water rose even higher.
“People who live here know what to expect, and they’re getting ready for it,” said Baxman.
Not far away along the coast, Sonoma County opened a community support center at Fort Ross State Historic Park, 19005 Coast Highway in Jenner. The county also has an emergency shelter at the E.C. Kraft Building at the Sonoma County Fairgrounds in Santa Rosa for up to 60 people, county officials said.
Saturday’s storm was expected to bring half an inch to 2 inches of rain for most of the Bay Area and up to 4 inches in the mountains. The North Bay was expected to be the wettest, with between 4 to 6 inches of rain. Meanwhile, wind gusts throughout the region were forecast to reach up to 60 mph, and even higher at mountain peaks.
After a brief dry spell Sunday afternoon, the more potent second storm is set to arrive later that night and last through Tuesday morning, dumping between 2 and 6 inches across the Bay Area and up to 8 inches in higher elevations.
Even San Jose could see about 2 inches of rain in the coming days, unusual for an area that’s generally in the rain shadow of the Santa Cruz Mountains, while Big Sur could get upwards of 11 inches of rain at its highest peaks.
As the rain comes down harder, the threat of floods and mudslides should increase across the region. And major waterways will be at risk of overflowing.
Some creeks and rivers the weather service highlighted for potential flooding include the Russian River near Guerneville; Alameda Creek near Niles Canyon and Sunol, and Arroyo de la Laguna at Verona in Alameda County; and Coyote Creek at Milpitas and at Edenvale, and Pacheco Creek near Dunneville in the South Bay. The San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County is also at risk of overflowing.
Mandatory evacuation orders are possible in those areas and others at risk of flooding and mudflows.
In Richmond, Mayor Tom Butt said 15 homes near a sea cliff are still under evacuation due to mudslide concerns. He said there were no plans for additional evacuation orders but the city would continue monitoring the storm.
“All quiet for a day or so — nothing I can do to stop it,” he said.
Brooke Bingaman with the weather service encouraged residents to sign up for emergency alert systems to get the most current information about any evacuation orders during the storms.
“One of the number one things for people to do is to make sure they are signed up for their county alerts,” Bingaman said. “That is going to be the best way to get the info that’s pertinent to them.”
Staff writer Aldo Toledo and the Associated Press contributed to this report.
Source: www.mercurynews.com