Week 17 betting: 49ers, Bengals on impressive streaks

The red-hot Cincinnati Bengals go for their eighth straight cover when they host the Buffalo Bills on “Monday Night Football.” It would break a tie for the longest single-season cover streak in franchise history. The Bengals have gone 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games and 20-3 ATS in their last 23 games, including last year’s postseason.

San Francisco has the second-longest cover streak at six straight games. It is a double-digit road favorite against Jarrett Stidham and the Las Vegas Raiders. Each of the last eight double-digit home underdogs have covered the spread dating back to last season. The Tennessee Titans also look to join that trend, as they are double-digit home underdogs for the first time since moving to the Volunteer State.

Jacksonville is another hot team, having covered four straight. The Jaguars are road favorites against the Houston Texans. The Jaguars have lost seven straight games outright as a favorite, tied for the fourth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era.

On the other side, Seattle is 0-6 ATS in its last six games, tied for the longest drought by any team this season. Its former quarterback, Russell Wilson, also isn’t faring well. This week is the first time Wilson has ever been a double-digit underdog. Wilson is 6-0 ATS in his career when getting at least 7.5 points.

Season results

• Underdogs: 8-7 ATS last week (124-103-7 this season – .529)

• Road teams: 7-8 ATS (114-118-7 this season)

• Overs: 6-9 last week (106-131-2 this season)

• Best ATS team: Cincinnati (12-3 ATS)

• Worst ATS team: Tampa Bay (3-11-1 ATS)

• Best over teams: Chicago, Philadelphia, Detroit, Minnesota (All 10-5)

• Best under teams: Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Denver (All 11-4)

Win totals at stake

Potential Overs: Atlanta (5), Carolina (6.5), Washington (7.5), Pittsburgh (7.5), Miami (8.5)

Potential Unders: New England (8.5), Tennessee (9), Los Angeles Chargers (10)

Dallas Cowboys (-11) at Tennessee Titans, Thursday at 8:15 ET

• Mike Vrabel is 13-4 ATS (11-6 SU) in his career as at least a 4-point underdog (15-5 ATS, 13-7 SU including playoffs).

• Since the Titans/Oilers franchise moved to Tennessee in 1997, Tennessee has never been a double-digit home underdog. The last time the franchise was a double-digit home underdog was in 1986 (Houston Oilers were 13.5-point underdogs against Chicago).

• Tennessee is 0-3 ATS in its past three home games. However, it’s 4-0 ATS as a home underdog since the start of the last season.

• Dallas is 11-4 ATS on the road since the start of last season, tied for the second-best ATS road record over that span (Arizona). Only Cincinnati (13-4) has a better such record.

• Dallas is 16-7 ATS (.696) as a favorite since the start of last season. That is the best cover percentage as a favorite over the last two seasons.

• Dallas has had its past five games overall go over the total, as well as its past five games vs teams with losing records.

• Double-digit home underdogs are 14-5 ATS over the past two seasons, including 8-0 ATS since Week 17 last season and 4-0 ATS this season (2-2 SU). They are 8-11 outright since the start of last season (+30.3 units).

• Prime-time unders are 10-1 over the past three weeks and 31-19-1 this season (.620).

• New York is 5-0 ATS coming off a loss this season. It joins Dallas as the only teams to cover following each of their losses this season.

• New York is 4-0 ATS against AFC opponents this season.

• New York can tie its most covers in a single season this week. It went 12-4 ATS in 2008, and enters Sunday 11-4 ATS in 2022.

• Indianapolis has had three straight games go over the total, and is 4-1 to the over under interim coach Jeff Saturday.

• Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in games on short rest since 2019. The Colts had covered in six consecutive such games before failing to do so vs. Dallas earlier this month.

• Teams are 23-32-1 ATS in games started by Nick Foles in his career.

• Detroit enters 4-0 ATS in its past four home games, and 7-1 ATS in its past eight games regardless of location.

• Chicago is 0-3 ATS in its past three road games.

• Detroit is 4-0 ATS against NFC North opponents this season.

• Both teams have been among the best over teams this season, each entering with a 10-5 record to the over.

• Detroit (-6) is laying its most points in a game since Week 8, 2019, when it was favored by six points in a matchup against the New York Giants.

• Chicago is 8-18 ATS since the start of last season as an underdog. Only Tampa Bay (0-2 ATS) has a worse cover percentage as an underdog over the span.

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

• Arizona is 11-4 ATS on the road since the start of last season, tied for the second-best ATS road record over that span.

• Arizona is 9-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of last season. Only Cincinnati (5-1) and Kansas City (1-0) have a better cover percentage in such games over the span.

• Since the start of last season, Atlanta is 4-0 ATS when playing in games off more than six days’ rest. That is the best ATS record in such games in that span.

• Atlanta’s past four games have gone under the total.

• Jacksonville has lost seven straight games outright as a favorite, including all three this season. That is tied for the fourth-longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Four of those losses came against Houston.

• Jacksonville has covered three straight games. It has not covered four straight games within a single season since 2015 (4).

• Houston is 3-0 ATS in its past three games as an underdog.

• Houston has covered in its past five meetings vs. Jacksonville as an underdog dating back to 2018. It is 3-0 ATS vs. Jacksonville since the start of last season regardless of who is favored.

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

• Denver QB Russell Wilson has never started a game in which his team was a double-digit underdog. Wilson is 6-0 ATS in his career when he is getting at least 7.5 points.

• Denver games are 11-4 to the under this season, tied for the best under mark in the league. However, its past three games have gone over the total.

• Denver is 4-0 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• Kansas City is 5-10 ATS in its past 15 games as at least a seven-point favorite (2-4 ATS this season).

• Kansas City is 3-0 ATS in their past three games as a home favorite.

• Kansas City is 0-4 ATS against AFC West opponents this season.

• Kansas City has won 14 straight meetings against Denver, going 10-4 ATS in that span.

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

• Teddy Bridgewater is 42-22 ATS in his career (.656), 24-8 ATS as an underdog (.750) and 19-4 ATS as a road underdog (.826). Miami is 7-6 ATS this season in games that Tua Tagovailoa starts and 0-2 ATS in games in which he doesn’t (0-1 ATS with Bridgewater).

• New England is 0-5 ATS against teams with a winning record this season.

• Since the start of last season, Miami is 3-0 ATS and outright against New England. Miami has covered in four straight meetings against New England, all with Tagovailoa at quarterback.

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

• Philadelphia is 6-1 ATS at home this season.

• Philadelphia’s past six home games have all gone over the total.

• Seven of New Orleans’ past eight games have gone under the total, including four straight. Its past four road games have also gone under.

• New Orleans is 0-3 ATS in its past three meetings against teams with winning records.

• Tampa Bay is 1-6-1 ATS in home games this season.

• Tampa Bay games are 11-4 to the under, tied for the best under mark in the league. All 10 games against teams with losing records have gone under the total.

• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS against Carolina since 2020 (Tom Brady‘s first season with Tampa). The one game Tampa failed to cover was an outright loss to Carolina in Week 7 of this season.

• Carolina enters 4-0 ATS in its last four games as an underdog.

• Carolina is 4-0 ATS against NFC South opponents this season.

• Sam Darnold has started the past four games for Carolina, and the team is 3-1 ATS in those games. With Darnold starting, it is 3-1 to the over, including three straight overs.

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

• Cleveland’s past five games have gone under the total, including all four games started by Deshaun Watson.

• Cleveland is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss.

• Washington has failed to cover in three straight games.

• Washington is 5-0 ATS in its past five games against teams with losing records.

San Francisco 49ers (-10) at Las Vegas Raiders, Sunday at 4:05 ET

• San Francisco is 6-0 ATS in its past six games, as well as 6-0 ATS in its past six games as a favorite. It is its longest cover streak since 2011, when it covered in eight straight.

• San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its past five matchups against opponents with losing records.

• Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its past five home games.

• Las Vegas is 3-0 ATS in games coming off more than six days’ rest in 2022.

• Double-digit home underdogs are 14-5 ATS over the past two seasons, including 8-0 ATS since Week 17 last season and 4-0 ATS this season (2-2 SU). They are 8-11 outright since the start of last season (+30.3 units).

• Seattle enters having failed to cover the spread in six straight games. That is tied for its longest such streak since the 2000 season, when it also failed to cover in six straight from Weeks 5-10. It is also tied for the longest such streak in the NFL this season with Tampa Bay.

• Seattle is 0-4 ATS in its past four games following a loss.

• Seattle is 19-8 ATS as a home underdog under Pete Carroll.

• New York is 0-4 ATS in its past four games when the line is within a field goal (+3 to -3).

• New York’s past three games have all gone under the total.

• QB Mike White is expected to return and start for New York this week. In his 3 starts this season, the Jets are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 to the over.

• Green Bay is 3-0 ATS in its past three games. However, the Packers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games as a home favorite.

• Green Bay is 13-7-1 ATS in games started by Aaron Rodgers when the spread is within a field goal (-3 to 3).

• Minnesota enters 0-3 ATS in its past three games.

• Minnesota is 1-6 ATS in its past seven games as an underdog, including 1-4 ATS in its past five as a road underdog.

• Minnesota enters having had its past five games all go over the total.

• Minnesota is 8-1 to the over this season when facing teams with losing records.

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

play

Chris Canty and Chris “Mad Dog” Russo debate whether the oddsmakers got the point spread right between the Packers and Vikings.

Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5), Sunday at 4:25 ET

• The Rams are 0-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season.

• The Rams have covered three of their past four games after starting the season 2-8-1 ATS. Last week, they covered the spread by 40 points, the largest cover margin any team has had in a game in the past two seasons.

• The Chargers have seen their past four games all go under the total.

• Baltimore is 15-5-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since the start of 2019. That’s tied with Buffalo for the best cover percentage over that span.

• Baltimore hasn’t been as profitable at home this season, as it’s 1-5 ATS as a home favorite.

• Six of Baltimore’s seven home games have gone under the total this season.

• The last three meetings between these two teams have gone under the total. The current total of 35 is the lowest in a Pittsburgh-Baltimore matchup since 2010.

• Pittsburgh is 20-9-1 ATS as an underdog against AFC North opponents under Mike Tomlin. Pittsburgh is 49-30-3 ATS as an underdog overall under Tomlin (.620), the best percentage of any team since Tomlin was hired in 2006.

• Pittsburgh enters having covered in three straight road games. The Steelers have not covered in more than three straight road games since 2016, when they covered in four straight road games from Weeks 11-15.

• Prime-time unders are 10-1 over the past three weeks and 31-19-1 this season (.620).

• Unders in division games are 44-28-1 this season (.611).

Buffalo Bills (-1) at Cincinnati Bengals, Monday at 8:30 ET (ESPN/ABC)

• Cincinnati has covered seven straight games, tied for its longest streak in the Super Bowl era. Cincinnati is 12-1 ATS in its past 13 games and a league-best 12-3 ATS this season. Cincinnati is 20-3 ATS in its past 23 games, including last year’s postseason.

• Joe Burrow has covered seven straight games as an underdog dating back to last season including playoffs (2-0 ATS this season).

• Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS at home this season.

• Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS this season when the spread is within a field goal (+3 and -3).

• Buffalo is 15-5-2 ATS when the spread is between +3 and -3 since the start of 2019, tied with Baltimore for the best cover percentage over that span.

• Seven of Buffalo’s eight road games have gone under the total this season.

• Prime-time unders are 10-1 over the past three weeks and 31-19-1 this season (.620).

Source: www.espn.com