NFL Week 16 takeaways: Bills clinch AFC East; Vikes pull off another last-second win

Welcome to Week 16 of the 2022 NFL season and a full holiday weekend of football. There is a full slate of games Saturday plus three more on Sunday.

On Thursday, the Jacksonville Jaguars continued their quest for the AFC South title and beat the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills, meanwhile, secured their third straight AFC East Division title with a win over the Chicago Bears combined with a New England Patriots loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. And with a win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Baltimore Ravens secured a playoff berth. The Minnesota Vikings won another one-score game — again — and the Kansas City Chiefs proved to be too much for the Seattle Seahawks.

Our NFL Nation reporters react with the biggest takeaways and lingering questions off this week’s matchups and look ahead to what’s next. Let’s get to it.

Jump to a matchup:

JAX-NYJ | BUF-CHI | NO-CLE
SEA-KC | NYG-MIN | CIN-NE
DET-CAR | ATL-BAL | HOU-TEN

Texans

What to know: The Texans earned their second win by containing Derrick Henry. The last time the Texans faced Henry, he ran for 219 yards en route to a 17-10 win in Week 8. But during their second matchup, the Texans’ run defense contained Henry, even though the raw numbers might say otherwise. Henry finished with 126 yards rushing on 23 carries, but outside of a 48-yard touchdown run, the Texans held him to 3.5 yards per rush on every other carry. Overall, the Texans’ defense held the Titans to 14 points and 272 yards and forced three turnovers. It was one of the team’s best defensive performances of the year.

With how the Texans have looked in the past three games, does that take the heat off coach Lovie Smith? The Texans have played the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs and Titans down to the wire. Those teams are competing for playoff spots, and the Texans had a chance to win all three of those games and closed the deal against the Titans. The team hasn’t quit on Lovie Smith even though it has lost 12 of 15 games. Will that help save Smith’s job? The team is showing life, and it’s plausible it could carry this momentum into the 2023 season. — DJ Bien-Aime

Next game: vs. Jaguars (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Titans

What to know: Denico Autry‘s value was proved beyond the stat sheet, as he had two quarterback pressures that nearly generated two interceptions. Autry also had pass breakups at the line of scrimmage on plays that could have gone for big gains if the Texans quarterback was able to get the passes off. Despite missing the past four games, Autry leads the Titans in sacks after getting his eighth of the season. But in the end, the Titans’ pass defense faltered after a Derrick Henry fumble in the fourth quarter. Davis Mills completed all four of his pass attempts for 69 yards, including the game-sealing touchdown.

Can the Titans be expected to challenge the Jaguars for the AFC South Division title? The Titans’ offense has shown little to no life over the past five games, even with the Jaguars rapidly closing the gap atop the AFC South. The second-half scoring woes have been a theme all season and it resurfaced Saturday. Tennessee was averaging a league-worst 5.5-point average in the second half entering this week. The search for contributions from the wide receiver position seems to be mission impossible. The Titans haven’t had a pass-catcher post 100 receiving yards in five games. Meanwhile, Jacksonville has a three-game win streak and took over sole possession of the AFC South. — Turron Davenport

Next game: vs. Cowboys (Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Bengals

What to know: The Bengals survived a massive gut check in a win over the New England Patriots. Cincinnati was on the brink of blowing a 22-0 lead before the defense intervened. Bengals safety Vonn Bell forced a fumble that Cincinnati recovered, which allowed the Bengals to avoid the second-biggest blown lead in franchise history. Cincinnati stays within striking distance of the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but for the second straight week, it won despite an inconsistent effort.

Should the run game be a concern? After a good stretch in the middle of the season, Cincinnati’s run game has sputtered the past two weeks. Against New England, the Bengals averaged 3.0 yards per rushing attempt. Cincinnati’s ground struggles also prevented the Bengals from being able to ice the game away as things got close. It’s a part of the offense that has to be better as the Bengals prepare for a postseason run. — Ben Baby

Next game: vs. Bills (Monday, Jan. 2, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Patriots

What to know: What a dagger. For the second week in a row. The Patriots had roared back from a 22-0 halftime deficit and appeared primed to go ahead when running back Rhamondre Stevenson lost a fumble at the Bengals’ 8-yard line with 55 seconds remaining. At 7-8, the Patriots are still technically alive for the playoffs, but what hope is there when they keep shooting themselves in the foot?

What are coach Bill Belichick’s plans with the offense? There are still two games remaining, but everything seems secondary to how Belichick plans to address the offense in the big picture. The Patriots had 70 total yards of offense at halftime, and while there were signs of life in the second half, this is not a sustainable formula. So it’s a balance between doing whatever it takes to win the final two games (home against Miami, on the road against Buffalo) to stay alive but also acknowledging that the offense needs a major fix. — Mike Reiss

Next game: vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

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The Patriots’ attempt at coming back from a 22-0 deficit falls short as the Bengals hold on for the win.

Vikings

What to know: What? You thought a close game involving the Vikings would end any other way? Minnesota is now 11-0 in one-possession games after Greg Joseph‘s 61-yard field goal won this one at the buzzer. The win gave the Vikings their 12th victory of the season, only the second time a Vikings team has won at least 12 in the past 13 years. This win was especially notable given the stakes: The Giants were playing to clinch a postseason spot, while the Vikings are playing for playoff seeding. Speaking of seeding, the Vikings will maintain their lead over the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC’s No. 2 seed.

Should we go back to being worried about the Vikings’ defense? The Giants’ underpowered offense rolled for 445 yards, including 334 through the air from quarterback Daniel Jones, a reminder that the Vikings have hardly fixed their season-long defensive struggles. But like many of their previous games, the Vikings mitigated the damage with two takeaways — a forced fumble by linebacker Brian Asamoah II and an interception by cornerback Patrick Peterson. Their special teams also blocked a punt, giving the offense a short field to score a touchdown, but the defensive concerns remain. — Kevin Seifert

Next game: at Packers (Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:25 p.m. ET)

Giants

What to know: This was a missed opportunity. The Giants had a playoff berth in their grasp in the fourth quarter. Except Cor’Dale Flott let an interception slip through his hands, Daniel Jones threw a rare INT, Richie James had a crucial drop and they had a punt blocked with under five minutes remaining. These are the kinds of plays that playoff teams can’t make. It all added up to a loss on a 61-yard FG as time expired.

Is next week vs. Indianapolis a must-win game? Pretty much. The Giants host the Indianapolis Colts on New Year’s Day. This is the easiest of their remaining games — on paper. New York would be playing with fire if it went into their finale needing to beat the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Giants would much rather win next week in front of their home fans and not leave anything in doubt. — Jordan Raanan

Next game: vs. Colts (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Saints

What to know: The Saints didn’t make it easy on a brutally cold day, but they did keep their playoff hopes alive, improving to 6-9 with a win over Cleveland. After trying to do everything but use Taysom Hill for most of the first half, they finally capitalized on running Hill — who had 9 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown — and a late interception by Deshaun Watson to squeak out a win in the elements.

Can the Saints sustain their momentum against the Eagles next week? The Saints won back-to-back games for the first time all season and stayed alive in the NFC South race. But their biggest challenge comes next week in Philadelphia. The Saints could be facing the Eagles without quarterback Jalen Hurts, but it’ll be an enormous lift with or without him. A win in Philly would also go a long way for first-year head coach Dennis Allen, who wasn’t able to generate momentum with his team for most of the season. — Katherine Terrell

Next game: at Eagles (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Browns

What to know: The Browns were finally eliminated from the playoff conversation after Deshaun Watson‘s would-be game-tying TD drive came up short. From the Saints’ 15-yard line, Watson had two potential TD passes bounce off the hands of Donovan Peoples-Jones and David Njoku. But then Watson took a sack on fourth down, sealing a second straight losing season in Cleveland.

What now for the Browns? Cleveland now has no shot to make the playoffs, rendering these final two games on the road against Washington and Pittsburgh meaningless. Getting more game reps for Watson will be Cleveland’s priority. After that, the Browns will be playing only for pride in their final two games for a second consecutive year. — Jake Trotter

Next game: at Commanders (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Bills

What to know: The Bills’ defense had an impressive performance, limiting the Bears’ league-leading rushing attack (came into Week 16 averaging 186.9 yards per game) to 91 yards and getting out of tough situations with limited points allowed. After allowing 188 yards on the ground to the Dolphins last week, the Bills’ defense gave up just 3.0 yards per carry. It was an important test for a defense that has struggled against the run at times. With the win, the Bills clinch the AFC East.

Can Josh Allen curtail the questionable decisions that have led to turnovers? Allen threw his first interceptions since Thanksgiving, finishing with two on the day — his fifth multi-interception game. A league-high four of his interceptions have been thrown into the end zone. Too often, Allen isn’t connecting with the open receiver in the middle of the field, instead looking for the big play downfield and trying to get the ball to certain receivers. Against better defenses, those poor decisions will have more of an impact as the Bills march toward the postseason. — Alaina Getzenberg

Next game: at Bengals (Monday, Jan. 2, 8:30 p.m. ET)

Bears

What to know: The Bears couldn’t run the ball, nor could they stifle Buffalo’s rushing attack. Devin Singletary (106 rushing yards, TD) and James Cook (99 rushing yards, TD) carved through Chicago’s defense, with the Bills rushing for 254 yards (8.2 yards per rush) as a team. Offensively, Justin Fields posed no threat throwing (3.6 yards per pass attempt, excluding a 44-yard pass to Velus Jones Jr.) or running the ball. One week after becoming the third quarterback in NFL history to rush for 1,000 yards in a season, Fields rushed seven times for 11 yards.

How can the Bears fight off an offensive regression? The Bears recorded a second straight game with three takeaways (two interceptions and a fumble recovery) but scored only three points off turnovers. Chicago had two drives that began in Buffalo territory at the 38- and 18-yard lines, respectively, and settled for field goals instead of touchdowns. After putting together an opening drive that resulted in 74 yards and four first downs, the Bears had 12 straight drives in which they could not generate multiple first downs. Averaging 3.7 yards per play is no recipe for winning games. — Courtney Cronin

Next game: at Lions (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

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Josh Allen rushes around defenders to extend the Bills’ lead in the fourth quarter.

Panthers

What to know: The formula for the Panthers (6-9) to win the NFC South is simple — run. They reestablished their dominance up front after being limited to 21 yards on the ground against the Pittsburgh Steelers, rushing for franchise records of 321 yards overall and 240 in the first half. They also had a team-record 571 total yards. They’ve won three of their past four, and in each they have 185 yards or more rushing. This sets up a showdown next week at Tampa Bay (6-8) for control of the South. Win that one and the following week at New Orleans, and Carolina wins the division.

Can Carolina keep up the ground dominance against Tampa Bay? No reason to think not. Carolina rushed for 173 yards in a 21-3 win against the Bucs earlier this season. Tampa Bay ranks only 17th against the run and gave up 209 yards a few weeks ago against San Francisco. There’s really no reason to think the Panthers can’t keep this up the last two games. They had 145 yards rushing against the Saints, who rank 23rd against the rush, earlier this year. — David Newton

Next game: at Bucs (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Lions

What to know: The Lions’ run defense was atrocious. Detroit entered as one of the hottest teams in the league, winning six of their past seven games, but couldn’t adjust to the Carolina rushing attack — allowing the Panthers to set a franchise record of 240 rushing yards in the first half and 320 overall. Carolina also set a franchise record for most total yards with 570. One silver lining was Shane Zylstra‘s three receiving touchdowns, including one late in the fourth quarter to narrow the deficit to 34-20.

How important is a strong finish to the season? The Lions laid an egg against the Panthers. There’s no denying that. But on a positive note, they’ve accomplished more than many thought they would this year, and there is still a 13% chance to reach the postseason, according to ESPN Analytics. But even if it doesn’t make the playoffs, Detroit needs to be better than it was Saturday over the last two games to build on its positive momentum heading into the offseason. — Eric Woodyard

Next game: vs. Bears (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Chiefs

What to know: This is the kind of game the Chiefs haven’t played very often recently but need to repeat going forward, particularly in the playoffs against better competition. They didn’t commit a turnover for the first time in 10 games, didn’t miss any field goals or PATs and committed few penalties other than on a Seahawks field goal drive in the second quarter. The Chiefs had been helping their opponents with their own mistakes but cleaned up some key areas against Seattle.

Does Harrison Butker‘s perfect day mean he’s over his slump? Butker made all three of his PATs and his only field goal attempt, but it’s premature to say all is good with the Chiefs’ kicking game. He will be asked to make kicks more difficult than three PATs and a 47-yard field goal. It’s a start, though, and should give him and the Chiefs some confidence going forward. — Adam Teicher

Next game: vs. Broncos (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Seahawks

What to know: It’s been all too evident during the Seahawks’ recent slide how badly they need to upgrade the front seven of their defense and the interior of their O-line. That was again obvious as they suffered their fifth loss in six games. The story wasn’t Patrick Mahomes lighting up their defense. It was how much more time he had in the pocket than Geno Smith. The Seahawks’ inept run defense finally tightened up, but their lone sack of Mahomes came late in the third quarter and they finished with only three QB hits. On offense, they also need to get better at guard and center.

Are the Seahawks’ playoff hopes dead? They don’t look like a team capable of making noise in the playoffs, but their hopes of sneaking in are still very much alive. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, their chances of earning one of the NFC’s two wild-card berths dropped only from 35% to 30% with this loss. They’re still on the Commanders’ and Giants’ heels and have two very winnable games remaining, at home against the Jets and Rams. They’d get a big boost if Tyler Lockett can return this week from his hand surgery and if Ryan Neal can get back from his knee injury. Neal’s absence left the Seahawks down to their third options at strong safety, making for a brutal matchup against Travis Kelce. That plus the weather — at 12 degrees, it was the second-coldest game in Seahawks history — meant this was a game they wouldn’t have won even when they were rolling at 6-3. — Brady Henderson

Next game: vs. Jets (Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Ravens

What to know: The Ravens are in the playoffs despite another rough game for the Lamar Jackson-less offense. Baltimore secured a postseason berth for the fourth time in five years, but the offense continues to sputter with backup quarterback Tyler Huntley. Baltimore can run the ball with the best of them, but this offense can’t finish its drives. The offensive players are visibly frustrated when walking off the field. The Ravens were 1-of-4 inside the 20-yard line against a Falcons defense that ranked 22nd in the red zone, which is why this wasn’t a blowout. In three games without Jackson, Baltimore has managed just two touchdowns.

When is Lamar Jackson returning? Jackson missed his third straight game because of a sprained knee after many thought he would be back for this game. Ravens coach John Harbaugh hasn’t given any update on Jackson after initially saying he was “week-to-week” earlier this month. This was expected to be a one-to-three-week injury, which means Jackson should be ready soon. It would provide a boost for this slumping offense if he could return to the practice field for the first time since injuring the knee on Dec. 4. If the Ravens are going to make a run in the postseason, they need Jackson healthy and at the top of his game. — Jamison Hensley

Next game: vs. Steelers (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Falcons

What to know: The Falcons’ playoffs hopes, for a while, were possible because of a poor division. But the reality for the Atlanta Falcons showed up on Christmas Eve — if everything isn’t perfect, the Falcons will struggle to win, and that’s not a surprise with a team in the midst of a rebuild. There are players to feel good about, notably cornerstones in defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, cornerback A.J. Terrell and offensive guard Chris Lindstrom, along with rookie receiver Drake London and running back Tyler Allgeier. But this is a team with a long way to go before it sustains success. This season has shown that.

Where did Desmond Ridder show improvement? Start No. 2 went better for Ridder — although it was another slow beginning with a rough first two drives that included a fumbled snap and a bad sack taken. Once Ridder found the rhythm of the game, there were signs of potential. He once again had a strong connection with London — his most targeted pass-catcher (nine targets, seven catches, 96 yards) — and while there were some off-target throws, Ridder often put his receiver in positions to make plays. He also showed he could make throws all over the field and again didn’t have operational issues. There are a lot of questions, but there was some tangible growth in a 22-of-33, 218-yard day with no touchdowns and no interceptions. — Michael Rothstein

Next game: vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Thursday

Jaguars

What to know: The Jaguars have snapped a lot of streaks this season — most notably a 20-game losing streak to NFC teams and an 18-game road losing streak — and they added another one to the list on Thursday night. This was the Jaguars’ first victory in a road prime-time game in the regular season since beating Pittsburgh in Three Rivers Stadium on Nov. 19, 2000. That it was an ugly win in the rain and wind is irrelevant. “You find a way to win and that’s bottom line,” receiver Christian Kirk said.

Are the Jaguars headed for the AFC South title? It sure looks that way. They’re a half-game behind the Titans after winning their third game in a row. The Titans have lost four in a row and QB Ryan Tannehill is likely out for the season, meaning rookie Malik Willis takes over. Willis struggled in two starts earlier this season. Right now, the Jaguars are playing the best football of any team in the division. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is playing at a high level, and the defense has forced eight turnovers in the past three games. If the Jaguars are a game behind or tied with the Titans heading into Week 18, the regular-season finale against the Titans in Jacksonville will decide the division. — Mike DiRocco

Next game: at Texans (Sunday, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET)

Jets

What to know: Coach Robert Saleh delivered a strong commentary on his faith in embattled QB Zach Wilson, replacing him with former practice-squad player Chris Streveler late in the third quarter — in a virtual must-win game, no less. Wilson was actually outplayed by Streveler in what might have been the unofficial end to the Wilson era. Once again, the Jets are staring into the quarterback abyss, only two years removed from using the second overall pick on Wilson. It’s an organizational failure to the highest degree.

What happened to the Jets in December? They began the month with a 7-4 record, seemingly a shoo-in for the playoffs. A four-game losing streak — the longest in 32 games under Saleh — has crippled their playoff hopes. The quarterback instability (from Wilson to Mike White to Wilson to Streveler) has taken a huge toll on the team. In retrospect, their postseason dreams were shattered the moment White’s ribs were fractured in Week 14. — Rich Cimini

Next game: at Seahawks (Sunday, Jan. 1, 4:05 p.m. ET)

Source: www.espn.com