Banks are short more than $1 trillion in capital, says this analyst, who fears the shortfall will only get worse

That claim may surprise those who think the U.S. banking industry has some $2.2 trillion in capital. But he whittles that figure in several ways. First, he notes, there’s a difference between book equity and tangible equity, the latter of which is used by banking regulators to evaluate solvency. It’s a narrower definition, excluding items like goodwill and deferred tax assets, that brings the total down to $1.49 trillion from $2.22 trillion.

Then, drawing on Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. data, he subtracts what’s called accumulated other comprehensive income. “Thanks to QE and now QT, all sorts of assets have become negative return propositions for banks and nonbanks alike. If the coupon pays less than the funding costs, you’re losing money,” he says. That takes capital down to $1.23 trillion.

Now comes the more controversial part. First he marks to market losses on loans and securities created during 2020 and 2021, for the impact of this year’s Fed rate hikes. That right there is enough to push banks into insolvency, with some $1.74 trillion of losses from marking to market.

Another $794 billion losses comes if bank holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, mortgage-backed securities and state and municipal securities also are marked to market. Put it all together, on Whalen’s calculations, and banks have a $1.3 trillion shortfall as of the second quarter.

Granted, and this is very important, banks don’t have to mark their assets to market. So what’s the worry? That exception isn’t infinite — banks are allowed to ignore mark-to-market losses so long as they have the capacity and intent to do so. “Even if the bank holds these low-coupon assets created during 2020-2021 in portfolio to maturity, cash flow losses and poor returns could eventually force a sale,” Whalen says.

He performed a similar analysis on JPMorgan Chase JPM, which he calls one of the better managed banks. Jamie Dimon’s bunch has a $16 billion shortfall as of the second quarter — and a $58 billion deficit if the mark-to-market adjustment is a steeper 17.5% — on Whalen’s numbers.

The bigger question is when those asset sales could possibly occur. “Sales of assets will occur slowly but lenders may force issue on collateral that is 20pts underwater,” he told MarketWatch in an email. And what’s unsustainable now is set to get worse. “Higher rates just make eventual mess bigger,” Whalen added.

The market

U.S. stock futures ES00 NQ00 were pointing higher in early action. Commodities were moving up, with gains for both oil CL and gold GC00. The dollar DXY was lower.

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The buzz

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 1:30 p.m. at the Brookings Institution, the current employer of former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke. “We see hawkish risk from Powell’s comments today which may reinforce his November FOMC message that policy rates may need rise to higher levels and that a slowdown to a 50bp hike is not a dovish pivot,” said economist at Citi. There are two other Fed speakers as well, with Gov. Michelle Bowman due to speak about banks, as Gov. Lisa Cook speaks at the Detroit Economic Club.

Private-sector job creation slowed to 129,000 in November, ADP estimated, in what it said was the weakest job growth since Jan. 2021. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department upped its estimate of third-quarter growth to 2.9% from 2.6%. The advanced trade in goods report showed a 7.7% rise in the goods deficit, a 0.8% increase in wholesale inventories but a 0.2% drop in retail inventories.

Still to come are Chicago PMI, job openings and pending home sales all are due for release, with the Beige Book of economic anecdotes due at 2 p.m.

In the eurozone, year-over-year inflation slowed to 10% in November from 10.6%.

CrowdStrike Holdings CRWD slumped after the cybersecurity firm guided for slowing subscription revenue growth.

Horizon Therapeutics HZNP rallied after the Irish drugmaker said it’s in talks to be purchased, with heavy hitters including Amgen AMGN, Johnson & Johnson JNJ and Sanofi FR:SAN circling the company.

An Alzheimer’s drug from Biogen BIIB and Eisai JP:4523 moderately reduced cognitive decline but also comes with side effect.

Walt Disney DIS said its returning CEO, Bob Iger, will initiate organization and operational changes that could result in impairment charges. It flagged the Disney Media and Entertainment Division, which includes its streaming services, for changes.

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